Favorite oxymorons: jumbo shrimp, airline food & global warming. 93 percent of warming is going into Earth's oceans. La Nina and volcanoes can temporarily mask the warming.
And record Arctic ice melt last September may be displacing numbing air that should be over the North Pole closer to our zip codes this spring.
"Global weirding" might be a better descriptor: more erratic weather; more extremes and Black Swan weather events that leave us scratching our heads in wonder.
After morning showers and T-showers skies cleared yesterday, bringing the first 50s since December 3. Vague hints of what's to come. Today: nearly 20 degrees cooler; tomorrow may bring back fond memories of late February - we'll be lucky to hit 32F.
Twins fans: pretend you're going to a December Gophers game at TCF Stadium.
It won't stay cold for long. 50F returns by the end of this week; the ECMWF hinting at 60s by Saturday. Be still my heart.
Call me a naive optimist, but this slow ramp into spring bodes well for our drought. Showers & T-showers return Saturday, and we morph into a much wetter pattern the second week of April, with more moisture spurting out of the Gulf of Mexico.
A little good news?
* Map above shows ECMWF predicted temperatures at 1 pm Monday.
Winter Relapse. I won't go on record saying this will be the last cold front of the winter season (I'm not that crazy), but this may be the last time MSP has to struggle just to reach freezing (Monday). A high sun angle results in a rapid rebound next week; highs near 50 from Wednesday into Friday, maybe significantly warmer by next weekend. Graphic: Iowa State.
Temperature Double-Take. Yes, the predicted highs above are in Celsius, courtesy of the ECMWF (European) model. After peaking near 32F Monday temperatures recover by the middle of next week. The "Euro" is hinting at 60s next Saturday, even a shot at 70 by Monday of next week. By then there will be precious little snow left around the Twin Cities metro.
· Minnesota River at Montevideo (Much above normal – now an 86% chance to see minor flood stage of 14 ft.)
· Long Prairie River at Long Prairie (Above normal now has a >95% chance to see minor flood stage of 6.0 ft.)
· Mississippi River at Aitken (above normal ~ 85% chance to see minor flood stage of 12ft)
· Mississippi River at St Cloud (above normal now has a 52% chance to see minor flood stage of 9.0 ft.)
For the 12-hour period: 28 miles, down from 32 miles last year.
For the 24-hour period: 45 miles, down from 50 miles..."
Q: How would melting Arctic ice lead to cold snaps?
A: The theory is the loss of sea ice means more heat is released from the open ocean, warming the layer of polar air over the water. That reduces the temperature and air pressure differentials with more southern latitudes, increasing the likelihood of a negative state in the atmospheric circulation..."
Photo credit above: dreamstime.com.