One of the nicest weeks of summer is shaping up for Minnesota, including the 4th of July. Quick, run out and buy a Lotto ticket.
After early May snows and June downpours I guess we were due for a break, statistically. Glad it's coming this week.
The jet stream is still "stuck", locked in a pattern that favors thunderstorms capable of localized flooding from Florida to New England through the end of the week, while the west fries through historic heat. Already: 122F. Palm Springs, 119F in Phoenix - the other night Las Vegas had a LOW of 89F.
In a deadly 1995 Chicago heat wave researchers discovered it wasn't an afternoon heat index of 125F that caused the most problems, but nighttime lows holding in the 80s that caused most of the problems. People simply couldn't find any relief at night; their hearts couldn't take the prolonged stress.
A stalled upper level low out east may squirt a stray pop-up instability shower into southern Minnesota Wednesday & Thursday, but I suspect most of us won't see any rain until Sunday, when an advancing cool front sparks a few T-storms.
4th of July: intervals of sun, 80-85F, dew point near 60. Some of the best weather in the USA?
Rainfall Thru Thursday Morning. The solution above shows the 12km NAM model accumulated rainfall between Sunday evening and Thursday mroning at 12z, some impressive 2-5" amounts pushing onto the Florida Panhandle, over 2" rain possible from near Atlanta and Charlotte into interior New England. Meanwhile dry weather should be the rule over the Upper Midwest and west coast of the USA. Graphic: Weather Bell.
Best Week Yet? Is it even theoretically possible to go more than 1-2 days in a row without rain this year? I was starting to wonder. But if you put any stock in the ECMWF (European) model above it looks fairly likely; dry weather prevailing into Wednesday, probably Saturday. There is a slight chance of a pop-up instability T-shower on the 4th, mainly south of the Twin Cities, but I think most of us will go the entire week without meaningful rain. Heresy.
4th of July. The ECMWF map above (WSI Corp.) is valid midday Thursday, showing numerous showers and heavy T-storms east of the Appalachians, a few spotty instability T-storms popping up from near Rochester to Des Moines and the Quad Cities, but fairly nice, sunny, seasonably warm weather is likely west of the Mississippi for this year's 4th of July festivities, a little monsoon cloud cover and rain taking the edge off the worst heat across New Mexico and Arizona.
Record-Tying 117F at Las Vegas Sunday. There hasn't been a hotter day since official records in Sin City were started back in 1937. More details from the Las Vegas National Weather Service.
Record Heat West - Flooding Rains East. The moisture contrasts across the USA are pretty formidable, record heat in the west making a bad wildfire risk even worse - Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect from San Francisco and much of California and Nevada to the Phoenix area. Out east a stalled frontal system has lead to the issuance of a Flash Flood Watch from Hilton Head northward to Albany. The latest watches and warnings from NOAA are here.
Image credit above: "Hurricane Ivan makes land fall on the Gulf Coast in 2004." (Photo Courtesy of NASA Scientific Visualization Studio)
Image credit above: "The Cephelobot, a autonomous underwater vehicle, floats in a large tank while undergoing tests at the University of Florida on Tuesday June 25, 2013 in Gainesville. The submarine is a prototype that will be launched into the ocean under hurricanes and send back weather data." Matt Stamey/Gainesville.com Staff photographer.