April Fool's Day 2013: Significant Shift in the Pattern?

April Fool

In an effort to cut down on cold-related injuries in the field the Twins will use a Wiffle Ball for today's chilly game at Target Field. Bundle up - a cruel breeze will make it feel like 15-20F by the 8th inning.

In other news NOAA will be naming tornadoes after American Presidents in 2013. "Our goal is to make warnings more memorable and authoritative", an unnamed official remarked. How odd.

Look at the bright side: this will probably be the last significant blast of numbing air. Famous last words. Today will be the most uncomfortable day; winds ease Tuesday and daytime highs rebound to 50F the latter half of this week as The Big Melt resumes.

It's a volatile pattern, making the 7-Day Outlook more tenuous than ever. I don't see any 60s, but a cold rain is likely late Friday into Saturday, again on Monday. Remember, the larger the north-south contrast in temperature the greater the odds of Pacific storms strengthening east of the Rockies, pushing Gulf moisture into Minnesota.

The latest 30-year averages show 2 inches of slushy snow during a typical April - it usually melts within 24 hours. By April 30 the average high is a balmy, hope-inspiring 65F.

And that's no joke.

Gloves: On The Field And Off. Heading to Target Field for the Twins Home Opener? Pack your warmest clothes, because models show air temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s, with a wind chill hovering from 18-25F. More like a Gophers game in mid-December. At least the sun will be out much of the afternoon, which should help (a little).

Warming Trend. Today will be as chilly as it's going to get (hopefully until October or early November). Highs nudge 50F by Wednesday; temperatures near or even a few degrees above normal into next week. Right now ECMWF data suggests Saturday will be the wettest day in sight (.67" rain predicted late Friday into Saturday).

Warm Enough For Rain. ECMWF model data valid Saturday evening shows a storm sliding just south of Minnesota, throwing a shield of light to moderate rain across Iowa into southern Minnesota. Right now Saturday appears to be the wetter day of the weekend.

Pattern Shift? The AO (Arctic Oscillation) has been strongly negative since mid-February, meaning light steering winds over North America, allowing unusually cold air to plunge south into the USA. A phase-shift to a strongly positive phase of the AO suggests stronger west to east jet stream winds, hinting at a warming trend as winds aloft blow from the Pacific (and hopefully the Gulf of Mexico). Graphic: NOAA.

From 2012 To 2013 March Blows Hot, Then Cold. Climate Central has a good explanation of how the weather over the USA can be so radically different from year to year; here's a snippet: "...Think of the Arctic as the Northern Hemisphere’s refrigerator. The blocked weather pattern, which some scientists think may be tied to the rapid warming of the Arctic and the subsequent loss of sea ice cover - has opened the refrigerator door, causing cold air to spill out of the freezer that is the Far North and help develop winter storms in the northern mid-latitudes. One such storm occupied much of the Northern Atlantic on Thursday, stretching from just south of Greenland all the way east to Ireland and Spain. The cold weather this month has been in stark contrast to last March, when an unprecedentedly long-lasting and intense early spring heat wave sent temperatures soaring into the 80s all the way to the U.S. border with Canada.

The interactive graphic above shows a comparison between the temperature departures from average during March of 2013 (through March 28) and March 2012.

What Keeps River Forecasters Up At Night? Although snow is going fast in and around the Twin Cities metro, there's still closer to a foot on the ground just north/west of St. Cloud, closer to 20-30" snow from Morris and Alexandria to Detroit Lakes, Bemidji and much of the northwestern third of Minnesota, according to NOAA calculations.

Snow Water Equivalent. What's important isn't how many inches of snow is left up north, but the SWE, or snow water equivalent - how much water is locked up in that snowpack. As much as 4-8" of water is in the snow west of Brainerd and Wadena. A worst case scenario for river flooding would be a temperatures spike into the 50s and 60s, coupled with significant rain. That scenario may be shaping up in 6-10 days - something we'll need to keep a very close eye on.

Flood Potential Grows. As much as 5-8" water in the snowpack over much of the Red River Valley, coupled with lingering chill (and little melting in recent weeks) has increased the potential for major flooding, especially on the Red River from Montevideo to Fargo and Crookston. Details from NOAA: "Areas of concern that have an increased risk over the historical flood history include: 

·         Minnesota River at Montevideo (Much above normal – now an 86% chance to see minor flood stage of 14 ft.) 

·         Long Prairie River at Long Prairie (Above normal now has a >95% chance to see minor flood stage of 6.0 ft.)

·         Mississippi River at Aitken (above normal ~ 85% chance to see minor flood stage of 12ft)

·         Mississippi River at St Cloud (above normal now has a 52% chance to see minor flood stage of 9.0 ft.)

"The threat for ice jams is increasing. This is especially of concern for the upper Mississippi River (Anoka and upstream) and on the Minnesota River. Information that would be very helpful to know include location of the jam (more prone locations include river bends and bridges), tupe of ice (solid sheets or "chunks"), length of the jam and is water rapdily rising behind the jam."

Palm Sunday: A Retrospective Of One Of Michiana's Worst Disasters. WSBT-TV has the story (and remarkable videos). Here's an excerpt: "It's considered one of the worst disasters in our area's history, killing around 50 people in Elkhart County and injuring many others. This retrospective by WSBT-TV, which originally aired in 1995, chronicles the events of Palm Sunday, April 11, 1965 through original broadcasts and survivor interviews."

Hurricane Center Again Breaks Accuracy Records. NHC did a good job last year, overall. Heres' a good recap from SunSentinel: "Once again, the National Hurricane Center again broke forecast track accuracy records during the tumultuous 2012 storm season. While issuing 444 advisories for the likes of Hurricanes Isaac and Sandy, the center set track prediction records for every forecast period except for the longest one, which predicts what a storm will do over the next five days. Here are the average errors:

For the 12-hour period: 28 miles, down from 32 miles last year.

For the 24-hour period: 45 miles, down from 50 miles..."

Are Agriculture's Most Popular Insecticides Killing Our Bees? NPR has the story - here's the intro: "Environmentalists and beekeepers are calling on the government to ban some of the country's most widely used insect-killing chemicals. The pesticides, called neonicotinoids, became popular among farmers during the 1990s. They're used to coat the seeds of many agricultural crops, including the biggest crop of all: corn. Neonics, as they're called, protect those crops from insect pests. But they may also be killing bees. Christian Krupke, a professor of entomology at Purdue University in Indiana, is among the scientists whose research has alarmed beekeepers. Last month, I caught up with Krupke at a DoubleTree Hotel in Bloomington, Ill., where he was giving a talk to several hundred farmers and the agricultural consultants who advise them about seeds, fertilizer and pesticides. The meeting was organized by GrowMark, a farm supply company..."

Photo credit above: "Workers clear honey from dead beehives at a bee farm east of Merced, California." Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP.

Sugar Industry's Secret Documents Echo Tobacco Tactics. Here's a snippet of a remarkable story from Canada's CBC Network: "...As Couzens sorted through the documents, the full extent of that campaign to forge public opinion emerged. The documents describe industry lobby efforts to sponsor scientific research, silence media reports critical of sugar, and block dietary guidelines to limit sugar consumption. The Sugar Association's president reported to the Board of Director's meeting in October, 1976 that, "in confronting our critics we try never to lose sight of the fact that no confirmed scientific evidence links sugar to the death-dealing diseases. This crucial point is the life blood of the association..."

15 Happiest And Saddest U.S. Cities Based On Tweets. Not sure if it's scientifically possible to deduce who is happy vs. sad from tweets, but I found it vaguely interesting that the happiest people tend to live in the western half of the USA (with the exception of Green Bay). ThingLink has the infographic.

 

 

Climate Stories...

Doubling Down On Our Faustian Bargain. NASA's Dr. James Hansen has the story at Huffington Post; here's an excerpt: "...Reduction of the net human-made climate forcing by aerosols has been described as a "Faustian bargain," because the aerosols constitute deleterious particulate air pollution. Reduction of the net climate forcing by half will continue only if we allow air pollution to build up to greater and greater amounts. More likely, humanity will demand and achieve a reduction of particulate air pollution, whereupon, because the CO2 from fossil fuel burning remains in the surface climate system for millennia, the "devil's payment" will be extracted from humanity via increased global warming..."

Graphic credit above: "Annual increase of CO2 at Mauna Loa. The 12-month running mean reduces the double noise in the 12-month change. Blue asterisks show the end-of-year 12-month change often reported in the media."

Scientists: Wooded Areas In The Arctic To Increase By Up To 50% Over Next Decades. BNOnews has the article; here's an excerpt: "New models predict drastically greener Arctic in coming decades Boom in trees, shrubs expected to lead to net increase in climate warming. New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected. "Such widespread redistribution of Arctic vegetation would have impacts that reverberate through the global ecosystem," said Richard Pearson, lead author on the paper and a research scientist at the American Museum of Natural History's Center for Biodiversity and Conservation..."

Climate Change Is The Risk That Increases All Others. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from the CEO of Skoll Global Threats Fund at The Wall Street Journal: "Climate change is the greatest risk we face. It's the great exacerbater. It exacerbates the risk of pandemics. It exacerbates the risks of water. It exacerbates the risk of conflict. Take a look at South Asia, where China owns the ice, India owns the water and has 21 dams, and Pakistan and Bangladesh are out of luck. Pakistan's entire food production is dependent on two other nuclear-armed countries..."

James Inhofe "Proud" To Be A Target In Climate Change Documentary. Huffington Post has the story; here's an excerpt: "Sen. James Inhofe is taking criticism of his climate change denial as a compliment. The Oklahoma Republican is one of the central targets in the newly released climate change documentary "Greedy Lying Bastards," which examines attempts by the fossil fuel industry to thwart emissions standards and mispresent the facts in the face of changing global climate conditions. The film airs Friday at a special screening in Tulsa, Okla. "I was not surprised to see myself front and center on the promotional material for this climate change movie," he told the Tulsa World, "and quite frankly, I'm proud of it." Inhofe has long called climate change a "hoax," insisting "we're in a cold spell" when it snows, despite the body of scientific evidence showing that humans contribute to global warming..." (Photo: AP).

Q&A: Europe's Freezing Easter, Global Warming And Melting Arctic Ice. The Washington Post does a good job explaining how record melting of Arctic ice last year may be displacing unusually cold air south, creating colder than average conditions across much of North America, Europe and Asia. Here's an excerpt: "...Global warming is melting the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean. Last September, it reached its lowest extent on record. Climate models show that the loss of sea ice — which acts as a lid on the ocean, preventing it from giving off heat — triggers feedback mechanisms that shake up the climate system further. A series of studies in recent years have shown that one such effect could be changes in atmospheric circulation, resulting in more frequent cold snaps in Europe.

Q: How would melting Arctic ice lead to cold snaps?

A: The theory is the loss of sea ice means more heat is released from the open ocean, warming the layer of polar air over the water. That reduces the temperature and air pressure differentials with more southern latitudes, increasing the likelihood of a negative state in the atmospheric circulation..."

Happy Easter: Cold Smack, Then Turning Warmer/Wetter East of Rockies

 

 

Happy Easter

Favorite oxymorons: jumbo shrimp, airline food & global warming. 93 percent of warming is going into Earth's oceans. La Nina and volcanoes can temporarily mask the warming.

And record Arctic ice melt last September may be displacing numbing air that should be over the North Pole closer to our zip codes this spring.

"Global weirding" might be a better descriptor: more erratic weather; more extremes and Black Swan weather events that leave us scratching our heads in wonder.

After morning showers and T-showers skies cleared yesterday, bringing the first 50s since December 3. Vague hints of what's to come. Today: nearly 20 degrees cooler; tomorrow may bring back fond memories of late February - we'll be lucky to hit 32F.

Twins fans: pretend you're going to a December Gophers game at TCF Stadium.

It won't stay cold for long. 50F returns by the end of this week; the ECMWF hinting at 60s by Saturday. Be still my heart.

Call me a naive optimist, but this slow ramp into spring bodes well for our drought. Showers & T-showers return Saturday, and we morph into a much wetter pattern the second week of April, with more moisture spurting out of the Gulf of Mexico.

A little good news?

 

Cold Twins Home Opener. We'll see who the TRUE Twins Fans are on Monday - who turns out to brave wind chills in the teens. I enjoyed this post in Mark Seeley's latest WeatherTalk Newsletter: "According to historical analysis by Pete Boulay of the MN State Climatology Office it appears that the Minnesota Twins may open the season Monday (April 1st) with the coldest temperatures ever for this occasion, highs forecasted to be in the low-30s F. The coldest home opener in franchise history was on April 14, 1962 when the daytime high was 34 degrees F (Twins lost to the Angels 12-5 at the old Met). The Twins are scheduled to open against the Detroit Tigers at 3:10 pm on Monday, April 1st at Target Field with an expected temperature of 32 degrees F, and windchill in the high teens F to low 20s F. Long underwear under the uniform may be the common wardrobe that day. Incidentally the warmest ever home opener? On April 22, 1980, again at the old Met against the Angels the temperature was 90 degrees F (Twins won 8-1). You can read more about the weather for Twin's Home Openers at..."

http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/Twins_home_opener_weather.htm

* Map above shows ECMWF predicted temperatures at 1 pm Monday.

Winter Relapse. I won't go on record saying this will be the last cold front of the winter season (I'm not that crazy), but this may be the last time MSP has to struggle just to reach freezing (Monday). A high sun angle results in a rapid rebound next week; highs near 50 from Wednesday into Friday, maybe significantly warmer by next weekend. Graphic: Iowa State.

 

 

Temperature Double-Take. Yes, the predicted highs above are in Celsius, courtesy of the ECMWF (European) model. After peaking near 32F Monday temperatures recover by the middle of next week. The "Euro" is hinting at 60s next Saturday, even a shot at 70 by Monday of next week. By then there will be precious little snow left around the Twin Cities metro.

What Keeps River Forecasters Up At Night? Although snow is going fast in and around the Twin Cities metro, there's still closer to a foot on the ground just north/west of St. Cloud, closer to 20-30" snow from Morris and Alexandria to Detroit Lakes, Bemidji and much of the northwestern third of Minnesota, according to NOAA calculations.

Snow Water Equivalent. What's important isn't how many inches of snow is left up north, but the SWE, or snow water equivalent - how much water is locked up in that snowpack. As much as 4-8" of water is in the snow west of Brainerd and Wadena. A worst case scenario for river flooding would be a temperatures spike into the 50s and 60s, coupled with significant rain. That scenario may be shaping up in 6-10 days - something we'll need to keep a very close eye on.

Flood Potential Grows. As much as 5-8" water in the snowpack over much of the Red River Valley, coupled with lingering chill (and little melting in recent weeks) has increased the potential for major flooding, especially on the Red River from Montevideo to Fargo and Crookston. Details from NOAA: "Areas of concern that have an increased risk over the historical flood history include: 

·         Minnesota River at Montevideo (Much above normal – now an 86% chance to see minor flood stage of 14 ft.) 

·         Long Prairie River at Long Prairie (Above normal now has a >95% chance to see minor flood stage of 6.0 ft.)

·         Mississippi River at Aitken (above normal ~ 85% chance to see minor flood stage of 12ft)

·         Mississippi River at St Cloud (above normal now has a 52% chance to see minor flood stage of 9.0 ft.)

"The threat for ice jams is increasing. This is especially of concern for the upper Mississippi River (Anoka and upstream) and on the Minnesota River. Information that would be very helpful to know include location of the jam (more prone locations include river bends and bridges), tupe of ice (solid sheets or "chunks"), length of the jam and is water rapdily rising behind the jam."

Too Early To Retire The Parka. You'll need a heavy jacket or coat Monday, probably Tuesday, as one more shot of numbing air surges south of the border. Winds ease up Tuesday as high pressure slides overhead; moderating temperatures by Wednesday. Yes, this too shall pass. 84-hour NAM animation courtesy of NOAA.

Coldest March For The UK Since 1962. The UK Met Office has the details: "This March is set to be the coldest since 1962 in the UK in the national record dating back to 1910, according to provisional Met Office statistic. From 1 to 26 March the UK mean temperature was 2.5 °C, which is three degrees below the long term average. This also makes it joint 4th coldest on record in the UK. Looking at individual countries, March 2013 is likely to be the 4th coldest on record for England, joint third coldest for Wales, joint 8th coldest for Scotland and 6th coldest for Northern Ireland.

Why You Are Paying For Everyone's Flood Insurance. Yahoo News has the story; here's an excerpt: "There are many, many compelling and urgent reasons to take decisive action to combat climate change. Here's one that's measurable by dollars added to our budget deficit. Actually by tens of billions of dollars. The soaring cost of private flood insurance is pricing so many coastal homeowners out of the market that the rest of the American taxpayers are having to bail them out – to the tune of $30 billion under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). With over $139 billion in storm, wildfire, drought, tornado and flood damages taking nearly 1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012, the insurance industry is referring to last year as the second costliest year on record for U.S. climate-related disasters. And while insurers do include $12 billion worth of flood-related damages in their estimates, they aren't the ones getting stuck with most of the bill. It's us, the taxpayer..."

Hurricane Center Again Breaks Accuracy Records. NHC did a good job last year, overall. Heres' a good recap from SunSentinel: "Once again, the National Hurricane Center again broke forecast track accuracy records during the tumultuous 2012 storm season. While issuing 444 advisories for the likes of Hurricanes Isaac and Sandy, the center set track prediction records for every forecast period except for the longest one, which predicts what a storm will do over the next five days. Here are the average errors:

For the 12-hour period: 28 miles, down from 32 miles last year.

For the 24-hour period: 45 miles, down from 50 miles..."

15 Happiest And Saddest U.S. Cities Based On Tweets. Not sure if it's scientifically possible to deduce who is happy vs. sad from tweets, but I found it vaguely interesting that the happiest people tend to live in the western half of the USA (with the exception of Green Bay). ThingLink has the infographic.

 

Climate Stories...

James Inhofe "Proud" To Be A Target In Climate Change Documentary. Huffington Post has the story; here's an excerpt: "Sen. James Inhofe is taking criticism of his climate change denial as a compliment. The Oklahoma Republican is one of the central targets in the newly released climate change documentary "Greedy Lying Bastards," which examines attempts by the fossil fuel industry to thwart emissions standards and mispresent the facts in the face of changing global climate conditions. The film airs Friday at a special screening in Tulsa, Okla. "I was not surprised to see myself front and center on the promotional material for this climate change movie," he told the Tulsa World, "and quite frankly, I'm proud of it." Inhofe has long called climate change a "hoax," insisting "we're in a cold spell" when it snows, despite the body of scientific evidence showing that humans contribute to global warming..." (Photo: AP).

Q&A: Europe's Freezing Easter, Global Warming And Melting Arctic Ice. The Washington Post does a good job explaining how record melting of Arctic ice last year may be displacing unusually cold air south, creating colder than average conditions across much of North America, Europe and Asia. Here's an excerpt: "...Global warming is melting the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean. Last September, it reached its lowest extent on record. Climate models show that the loss of sea ice — which acts as a lid on the ocean, preventing it from giving off heat — triggers feedback mechanisms that shake up the climate system further. A series of studies in recent years have shown that one such effect could be changes in atmospheric circulation, resulting in more frequent cold snaps in Europe.

Q: How would melting Arctic ice lead to cold snaps?

A: The theory is the loss of sea ice means more heat is released from the open ocean, warming the layer of polar air over the water. That reduces the temperature and air pressure differentials with more southern latitudes, increasing the likelihood of a negative state in the atmospheric circulation..."

Worst Allergy Season Ever? Fantastic. Something to look forward to. Live Science has the story; here's an excerpt: "This spring could be the most miserable one ever for those of us with allergies, and we can blame it on climate change.  People in the Northeast, in particular, will be among the hardest hit in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and this winter's record-setting blizzard, both of which dumped massive amounts of precipitation over the region. "[This] promises a robust allergy season,'' said Leonard Bielory, an allergy and immunology specialist with the Rutgers Center for Environmental Prediction in New Jersey, a state which suffered widespread destruction from Sandy.  "The first airborne tree pollen has been measured in recent days, and while the count is still low, some allergy sufferers are showing comparatively severe symptoms,'' he added. "I expect more tree pollen than ever to be released this spring, and the reaction to the early pollen to be unusually strong...''

Photo credit above: dreamstime.com.

Another Cold Smack Next Week (significant flood risk Upper Midwest)

Real Twins Fans

In two days we'll discover who the true, die-hard Twins fans are. They'll be the ones braving the coldest home opener on record, in all probability.

According to Pete Boulay at the Climate Office the previous record for coldest opener was April 14, 1962, with an air temperature of 34F at the old Met Stadium. Monday's high will be near 31F, with a wind chill of 15-20F. Lovely.

We're creeping into spring this year; 40s feel like a Godsend. Dr. Mark Seeley reports February-March was the coldest such period since 2001 in the Twin Cities - and I believe him.

Persistent chill is delaying snow melt up north, increasing the potential for flooding, especially on the Red River. The risk has increased for Montevideo, Long Prairie, Aitkin and St. Cloud - details on the weather blog below.

Showery rains this morning give way to partial clearing by evening. A colder wind kicks in Easter Sunday - Monday appears to be the coldest day in sight; a cruel April Fool's joke.

Quick moderation is likely; 50F possible later next week - more rain in the extended outlook.

NOAA is still predicting "improvement" in our drought by June. If only spring would finally arrive, our moods would improve as well.

Cold Twins Home Opener. We'll see who the TRUE Twins Fans are on Monday - who turns out to brave wind chills in the teens. I enjoyed this post in Mark Seeley's latest WeatherTalk Newsletter: "According to historical analysis by Pete Boulay of the MN State Climatology Office it appears that the Minnesota Twins may open the season Monday (April 1st) with the coldest temperatures ever for this occasion, highs forecasted to be in the low-30s F. The coldest home opener in franchise history was on April 14, 1962 when the daytime high was 34 degrees F (Twins lost to the Angels 12-5 at the old Met). The Twins are scheduled to open against the Detroit Tigers at 3:10 pm on Monday, April 1st at Target Field with an expected temperature of 32 degrees F, and windchill in the high teens F to low 20s F. Long underwear under the uniform may be the common wardrobe that day. Incidentally the warmest ever home opener? On April 22, 1980, again at the old Met against the Angels the temperature was 90 degrees F (Twins won 8-1). You can read more about the weather for Twin's Home Openers at..."

http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/Twins_home_opener_weather.htm

* Map above shows ECMWF predicted temperatures at 1 pm Monday.

Brief Temperature Pothole. The good news: the sun is to high in the sky for it to stay cold for long. That said, highs struggle to reach 32 F. Monday and Tuesday, before rebounding to near 50 next Wednesday, again Friday. A quarter inch of rain may fall this morning, but no major storms are brewing next week, just showers and possible T-showers the end of next week.

Mild Saturday, Then Another Reality Check. The latest 84-hour NAM model shows more cold air hurtling south of the border late Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures moderate the latter half of next week.

Flood Potential Grows. As much as 5-8" water in the snowpack over much of the Red River Valley, coupled with lingering chill (and little melting in recent weeks) has increased the potential for major flooding, especially on the Red River from Montevideo to Fargo and Crookston. Details from NOAA: "Areas of concern that have an increased risk over the historical flood history include: 

·         Minnesota River at Montevideo (Much above normal – now an 86% chance to see minor flood stage of 14 ft.) 

·         Long Prairie River at Long Prairie (Above normal now has a >95% chance to see minor flood stage of 6.0 ft.)

·         Mississippi River at Aitken (above normal ~ 85% chance to see minor flood stage of 12ft)

·         Mississippi River at St Cloud (above normal now has a 52% chance to see minor flood stage of 9.0 ft.)

"The threat for ice jams is increasing. This is especially of concern for the upper Mississippi River (Anoka and upstream) and on the Minnesota River. Information that would be very helpful to know include location of the jam (more prone locations include river bends and bridges), tupe of ice (solid sheets or "chunks"), length of the jam and is water rapdily rising behind the jam."

Coldest March For The UK Since 1962. The UK Met Office has the details: "This March is set to be the coldest since 1962 in the UK in the national record dating back to 1910, according to provisional Met Office statistic. From 1 to 26 March the UK mean temperature was 2.5 °C, which is three degrees below the long term average. This also makes it joint 4th coldest on record in the UK. Looking at individual countries, March 2013 is likely to be the 4th coldest on record for England, joint third coldest for Wales, joint 8th coldest for Scotland and 6th coldest for Northern Ireland.

Why You Are Paying For Everyone's Flood Insurance. Yahoo News has the story; here's an excerpt: "There are many, many compelling and urgent reasons to take decisive action to combat climate change. Here's one that's measurable by dollars added to our budget deficit. Actually by tens of billions of dollars. The soaring cost of private flood insurance is pricing so many coastal homeowners out of the market that the rest of the American taxpayers are having to bail them out – to the tune of $30 billion under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). With over $139 billion in storm, wildfire, drought, tornado and flood damages taking nearly 1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012, the insurance industry is referring to last year as the second costliest year on record for U.S. climate-related disasters. And while insurers do include $12 billion worth of flood-related damages in their estimates, they aren't the ones getting stuck with most of the bill. It's us, the taxpayer..."

Climate Stories...

Q&A: Europe's Freezing Easter, Global Warming And Melting Arctic Ice. The Washington Post does a good job explaining how record melting of Arctic ice last year may be displacing unusually cold air south, creating colder than average conditions across much of North America, Europe and Asia. Here's an excerpt: "...Global warming is melting the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean. Last September, it reached its lowest extent on record. Climate models show that the loss of sea ice — which acts as a lid on the ocean, preventing it from giving off heat — triggers feedback mechanisms that shake up the climate system further. A series of studies in recent years have shown that one such effect could be changes in atmospheric circulation, resulting in more frequent cold snaps in Europe.

Q: How would melting Arctic ice lead to cold snaps?

A: The theory is the loss of sea ice means more heat is released from the open ocean, warming the layer of polar air over the water. That reduces the temperature and air pressure differentials with more southern latitudes, increasing the likelihood of a negative state in the atmospheric circulation..."

Worst Allergy Season Ever? Fantastic. Something to look forward to. Live Science has the story; here's an excerpt: "This spring could be the most miserable one ever for those of us with allergies, and we can blame it on climate change.  People in the Northeast, in particular, will be among the hardest hit in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and this winter's record-setting blizzard, both of which dumped massive amounts of precipitation over the region. "[This] promises a robust allergy season,'' said Leonard Bielory, an allergy and immunology specialist with the Rutgers Center for Environmental Prediction in New Jersey, a state which suffered widespread destruction from Sandy.  "The first airborne tree pollen has been measured in recent days, and while the count is still low, some allergy sufferers are showing comparatively severe symptoms,'' he added. "I expect more tree pollen than ever to be released this spring, and the reaction to the early pollen to be unusually strong...''

Photo credit above: dreamstime.com.

Slow-Motion Spring (cold bias lingers east of Rockies)

A Tough Winter?

It's human nature to compare and contrast. Yes, after March 2012 - the warmest March on record for Minnesota and the USA - 2013 has featured an old fashioned March: nearly 14 inches of snow, with temperatures 6.3F colder than average. But the claim of a tough winter? Not so much.

Your Honor, look at the evidence in Exhibit A: 49.3 inches of snow so far. Average for an entire winter is 54". Based on Heating Degree Days we've actually saved 1.5 percent on heating costs this winter season. Subzero nights in the metro: 9. The latest 30 year average is 22.5.

Truth? We've been so pampered and spoiled since roughly 1998 - even an "average winter" seems like a cold slap across the face.

Highs approach 50 today (I may take off my shirt and fire up the grill - just to annoy the neighbors) before a half inch of rain falls Saturday morning. A colder front arrives Easter Sunday on gusty winds. Expect bright, ineffective sun and wind chills of 15-20F for Monday's Twins Home Opener. Hey, who needs a retractable roof?

The sun angle is similar to mid-September, so it can't stay chilly for long. With our reluctant spring I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more slushy inches in April, but highs approach 50 next Wednesday, again the first weekend of April. Slow, tentative signs of a tardy spring.

Big Swings. After peaking near 50 today, temperatures cool off Easter Sunday; highs holding near freezing Monday and Tuesday. Some moderation is likely again the middle of next week, a mix of rain and wet snow possible by Friday of next week, according to ECMWF  model data.

20-Degree Temperature Drop. After climbing to near 50 today, temperatures fall off late Sunday into Monday; wind chills early next week dipping into the teens at times. Don't retire the coats and heavy jackets just yet - but some moderation is likely by the middle of next week. Graphic: Iowa State.

Significant Storm April 7-8? It's still early, but GFS data shows nearly 2" of liquid precipitation falling around April 7-8, mostly rain - possibly ending as a little slushy snow. Colder air follows the storm; temperatures not rebounding into the 50s until late in the second week of April.

More Hints The Drought May Be Easing. Here's the GFS solution for early in the day, April 8, showing an intense storm tracking just south/east of Minnesota; a shield of potentially heavy rain and some wet snow from the Dakotas into Wisconsin. We'll see.

Fascinatingly Morbid. Here's an interesting infographic looking at snow and ice-related accidents in the USA, courtesy of graphs.net.

Upended: The Deadly Odds Of Slipping On Ice. Here's an excerpt of a relevant article from Book of Odds, focused on the risk of death from slipping on ice (or any hard surface): "... The odds of dying from a fall on ice or snow in a year are 1 in 4,908,000. The US population hovers around 304,000,000, which means roughly 60 people die from slipping on ice or snow every year. But wintry conditions are only involved in about 10% of deaths stemming from an accidental tumble. The overall odds a person will die from an accidental fall in a year are 1 in 435,800. According to the American Association of Neurological Surgeons (AANS), accidental falls are the leading cause of non-fatal injuries in the US, and the primary cause of fatal injuries for Americans 65 and older. Most injuries come from striking a hard floor..."

Extreme Weather: The New Normal? Here's a clip of a terrific article from my friend, Bob Ryan, at WJLA-TV in Washington D.C.: "Is the weather really going to extremes, or are we just more aware or hear more about “extreme weather” on the news and in blogs?  Well, March 2013 has sure been an extreme change from March 2012. March 2012, the warmest March on record here in Washington and across the United States, at the same time across the globe March 2012 was the coolest since 1999...."

Graphic above: Climate Central.

 

Which Is The Safest Seat On An Aircraft? Personally, I want a seat inside the "black box", which is almost always recovered intact. After reading this article from the U.K. Telegraph I won't be quite as upset if I'm not upgraded on my next Delta flight. Economy class, a window seat, near an exit, toward the rear of the plane, is just fine. Here's an excerpt: "...The producers of the documentary, The Crash, arranged for a Boeing 727 carrying cameras, sensors and crash test dummies with breakable “bones” to be deliberately crashed into the Sonoran Desert in Mexico. After hitting the ground, the front of the plane and the first 11 rows of seats – usually reserved for first-class, business-class or premium-economy passengers – were ripped off. A force of 12G was recorded in this section of the aircraft. Further back, the force fell to around 6G. Experts concluded that none of the plane’s first-class passengers would have survived, but 78 per cent of the other passengers would have, with the chance of survival increasing the closer they were sitting to the rear of the aircraft..."

How The Internet Is Making Us Poor. Is "software eating the world"? How many information-related jobs will be replaced by software, automation and even robotics in the years to come. Will we be competing with other people for jobs, or machines? Here's an excerpt of a thought-provoking story at Quartz: "Everyone knows the story of how robots replaced humans on the factory floor. But in the broader sweep of automation versus labor, a trend with far greater significance for the middle class—in rich countries, at any rate—has been relatively overlooked: the replacement of knowledge workers with software. One reason for the neglect is that this trend is at most thirty years old, and has become apparent in economic data only in perhaps the past ten years. The first all-in-one commercial microprocessor went on sale in 1971, and like all inventions, it took decades for it to become an ecosystem of technologies pervasive and powerful enough to have a measurable impact on the way we work..."

Photo credit above: "Librarians are being replaced by vast systems for automatically storing books—but it's Wikipedia and the internet that are the real threat." AP/Uncredited.

Climate Stories....

Buzzkill? How Climate Change Could Eventually End Coffee. This is the last straw - PLEASE don't take away my coffee! US News has the article; here's the intro: "Millions around the world wake up and brew a cup of coffee before they start their day. But for many involved in the industry, a caffeine buzz isn't keeping them up at night—instead, what's causing insomnia is the increasing difficulty that climate change causes coffee farmers. Coffee is one of the world's most traded commodities. Each year, more than $15 billion worth of coffee is exported from 52 countries—many of which are still developing and rely on the crop to buoy their economies. The industry employs some 26 million people worldwide...The problem has gotten so bad that on March 18, Starbucks bought its first ever coffee farm, specifically to research new climate change-resistant coffee varieties..."

Poll: Americans Favor Adapting To Global Warming, But Not To Save Beaches For Coastal Dwellers. Here's an excerpt of a story at The Washington Post: "...When it came to the general question of who should pay to protect the coast, 60 percent of the public said it should be paid for by local property owners and businesses, not the general taxpayers. And when it comes to specific solutions, about 80 percent of those surveyed said the money should come from local property taxes, not federal or state income taxes. Nearly half, 47 percent, said the government should prohibit people from rebuilding structures damaged by storms. The survey also found that 82 percent of the public believes global warming is already happening. About 3 out of 4 people said rising sea levels caused by global warming is a serious problem."

Surprising Depth To Global Warming's Effects. Over 90% of the warming has gone into oceans, some of that warming into deep ocean layers, below 700 meters. Here's an excerpt from Live Science: "The oceans are the flywheel of the climate system. As atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, the Earth system is warming, and over 90 percent of that increase in heat goes into the ocean. Knowing how much heat the ocean absorbs is vital to understanding sea level rise (the oceans expand as they warm), and predicting how much, and how fast, the atmosphere will warm. Most estimates of ocean warming have been limited to the upper 700 meters of water, owing to the limited availability of ocean-temperature data below that depth. Since about the turn of the millennium, the Argo array, an international system of robotic profiling floats, has massively increased ocean sampling to 2,000 meters, and allowed scientists to show conclusively that ocean warming extends below 700 meters.."

Photo credit above: "The researchers compared ocean-temperature data collected in the 1870s by the Challenger vessel with modern data collected by the Argo Project, which uses 3,500 free-drifting floats (one of which is shown here) to measure temperature and salinity." Credit: Argo Project.

  New Research Confirms Global Warming Has Accelerated. Following up on the article above, here's an excerpt from Skeptical Science: "A new study of ocean warming has just been published in Geophysical Research Letters by Balmaseda, Trenberth, and Källén (2013).  There are several important conclusions which can be drawn from this paper.

• Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years.  This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.

• As suspected, much of the 'missing heat' Kevin Trenberth previously talked about has been found in the deep oceans.  Consistent with the results of Nuccitelli et al. (2012), this study finds that 30% of the ocean warming over the past decade has occurred in the deeper oceans below 700 meters, which they note is unprecedented over at least the past half century..."

Poll Questions Shift Public Views On Global Warming. A majority of Americans acknowledge that our climate is shifting, but how the questions are posed can shape the ultimate outcome (and certainty) of the answers. Nothing new there, but here's an excerpt of an interesting article at USA Today: "...Belief that global warming is happening has been mostly stable and increasing for the last thirty years," says social scientist Orie Kristel of The Strategy Team, an applied social science company based in Columbus, Ohio. The agreement has approached 75%, and although it dipped in recent years, that consensus has since resumed its upward march, according to a just-released report sponsored by the Skoll Global Threats Fund, a foundation founded by eBay billionaire Jeff Skoll that looks for solutions to global problems such as pandemics, nuclear proliferation and environmental challenges. In it, Kristel and his colleagues weigh together public opinion polls dating back to 1986, from more than 150 nationwide questionnaires in all..."

Graphic credit above: "U.S. belief that global warming is occurring weighed over all polls since 1986 to 2012." (Photo: The Strategy Team)

New Video: Hunters, Anglers And Climate Change. Here's a video and excerpt from Climate Denial Crock of the Week: "Todd Tanner has an offer for you. Convince him that climate change is not real, and he’ll give you his gun.

Field and Stream: The Conservation Hawks is a new group dedicated to harnessing the power of sportsmen to address climate change. Stop. Before you give in to anger, or to the “conservation fatigue” that can fall upon us like a giant wet carpet whenever climate change is mentioned, consider this: If you can convince Conservation Hawks chairman Todd Tanner that he’s wasting his time, that he does not have to worry about climate change, he will present to you his most prized possession: A Beretta Silver Pigeon 12 gauge over/under that was a gift from his wife, and has been a faithful companion on many a Montana bird hunt. I know the gun, and I’ve hunted and fished with Todd for years. He’s not kidding. You convince him, he’ll give you the gun..."

How To Abuse Statistics: Claim Global Warming Stopped In 1998. My friend, Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground, has a great post on a common denier theme making the rounds these days, the result of cherry-picking data. Here's an excerpt: "One often hears the statement in the media that global warming stopped in 1998, or that there has been no global warming for the past 16 years. Why pick 16 years? Why not some nice round number like 20 years? Or better yet, 30 years, since the climate is generally defined as the average weather experienced over a period of 30 years or longer? Temperatures at Earth's surface undergo natural, decades-long warming and cooling trends, related to the La Niña/El Niño cycle and the 11-year sunspot cycle. The reason one often hears the year 1998 used as a base year to measure global temperature trends is that this is a cherry-picked year. An extraordinarily powerful El Niño event that was the strongest on record brought about a temporary increase in surface ocean temperatures over a vast area of the tropical Pacific that year, helping boost global surface temperatures to the highest levels on record (global temperatures were warmer in both 2005 and 2010, but not by much.) But in the years from 2005 - 2012, La Niña events have been present for at least a portion of every single year, helping keep Earth's surface relatively cool. Thus, if one draws a straight-line fit of global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012, a climate trend showing little global warming results. If one picks any year prior to 1998, or almost any year after 1998, a global warming trend does result. The choice of 1998 is a deliberate abuse of statistics in an attempt to manipulate people into drawing a false conclusion on global temperature trends..."

Graphic above: Skeptical Science.

Keeping The Cork In The Oil Sands Bottle. Here's a snippet from a story at Planet 3.0: "Are the bitumen deposits in NE Alberta the biggest carbon bomb on the planet or will their exploitation have hardly any effect on the climate? Will the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline accelerate development of the oil sands or will it make little difference? I have attempted to answer the first question previously in a Skeptical Science post that discussed the 2012 Nature Climate Change article by Neil Swart and Andrew Weaver. The oil sands, even in the worst case (assuming constant production rates of coal, gas and conventional oil, with accelerated bitumen production), will only contribute a small proportion, about 3%, to fossil-fuel emissions over this century. However, when framed in terms of the steps we need to make to stabilize the climate, the oil sands loom larger, comparable in size to one of the Princeton wedges. In this view, exploiting the oil sands would be like taking a stride closer to the brink, whereas prudence requires us instead to take several steps back..."

Opinion: Life As A Target. Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann has become a target of climate change deniers, many funded by fossil fuel interests. He's the researcher who first published the "hockey stick", showing a sharp, upward spike in temperature - and he has the arrows in his back to prove it. Here's an excerpt from TheScientist: "...Meanwhile, I’ve also been subject to a constant onslaught of character attacks and smears on websites, in op-eds, and on right-leaning news outlets, usually by front groups or individuals tied to fossil fuel interests like ExxonMobil or the petrochemical tycoons, the Koch Brothers. As the journal Nature put it a March 2010 editorial, climate researchers are in a street fight with those who seek to discredit the accepted scientific evidence simply because it is inconvenient for some who are profiting from fossil fuel use. But being the focus of such attacks has a silver lining: I’ve become an accidental public figure in the debate over human-caused climate change. Reluctant at first, I have come to embrace this role, choosing to use my position in the public eye to inform the discourse surrounding the issue of climate change..."

Photo credit above: "Michael Mann testifying before Congress, with National Academies of Science Chair Ralph Cicerone (July 27, 2006)." National Academy of Sciences.