Where is the weather business heading? I wish I knew with certainty.
Yesterday, while waiting for lunch in Nisswa, I saw a woman in a nearby booth peering out a rainy window, checking radar on her smartphone, trying to calculate what time the sun would come out. Weather for one.
One vision: Apple's "Siri", only this computerized voice knows your location, your commute, calendar; anticipating your needs in advance.
"Rain ends at 2:35 on Gull Lake. Some sun between 3 to 7 PM as south winds gust to 18 - lightning in your vicinity after 9:45. Oh, and your golf tee time Sunday looks soggy."
We will see, but checking TV, radio or web sites, trying to INTERPRET weather for your GPS location and needs, may evolve to unique "One-Casts" on mobile devices, well-timed bursts of hyper-localized and personalized information coming in during the day when you need to make weather-related decisions and choices.
Storms are pushing into Wisconsin, with early clouds and fog, but the sun should peek out much of today, even up north. Highs approach or top 90F in the metro later, low 90s possible Monday before more numerous storms arrive Tuesday. We dry out the latter half of the week; warming near 90 again by next weekend.
Meanwhile fires are burning out of control near Las Vegas, while the Gulf & East Coast is stuck in a bizarrely soggy holding pattern - over 20" of rain near Panama City, a tropical storm's worth.
A Warmer, Somewhat Drier Pattern. I have a hunch July won't be as wet as June. We'll see our fair share of T-storm rains, but the core of the jet stream if finally pushing far enough north for us to see fairly consistent 80s, with a few 90s (but nothing like last summer). Showers and T-storms are most likely Tuesday of this week, another chance of a few T-storms next weekend, based on ECMWF guidance above.
Midweek Comfortable Front. All the models show a significant dip in dew point on Wednesday as winds swing around to the northwest. Dew points in the 50s will feel great by Thursday and Friday.
Doldrums of Summer. Weather fronts are just limping along, more soaking rains for the Gulf Coast and Appalachians today, a very slow-moving cool front sparking T-storms over the Upper Midwest Tuesday - pushing into New England and the Ohio Valley by midweek. Meanwhile the west stays persistently dry. 84 hour NAM loop: NOAA.
Image credit above: Brad Birkholz.
El Nino Weather Could Be Forecast A Year Ahead. USA Today has the interesting details; here's an excerpt: "An international meteorology team on Monday unveiled a way to forecast El Niño weather a year ahead of time, double the lead time experts currently have. El Niños strike every decade, driven by warm Pacific Ocean water piling on the West Coast and affecting weather worldwide, triggering floods, droughts and heat. The most recent El Niño ended in 2010. A strong El Niño brings heavy rains to North and South America and drought to Australia, making its prediction something long sought by weather forecasters..."
Photo credit above: JEFF SCHEID/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL. "Smoke from Carpenter Canyon fire shrouds Mountain Charleston at the Snow Mountain exit and U.S. Highway 95 on Friday. The 5-day-old fire has grown to more than 9,000 acres and swept into Kyle Canyon. More than 500 people have been evacuated an hundreds of homes and business are threatened."
Photo credit above: Elaine Thompson/Associated Press. "In the summer of 2000, drought-fueled wildfires devastated the Bitterroot Valley in Montana."
Photo credit above: "The mayor of Prince Albert is unhappy with the province's flood forecasting this spring."
Soggy Nisswa. Some days I wonder if shop owners secretly pray for rain in some of these northern resort towns like Nisswa, Crosslake, Walker and Pequot Lakes? Yesterday's showery sky up north drove many into town to try their hand at shopping. Great fun.
Vast Reservoirs Of Carbon Could Affect Global Warming. Here's a snippet from a story at NBC Southern California: "...During the summer thaw, the very top of the permafrost melts -- a few inches to no more than a few feet -- releasing only a small amount of the carbon that has built up over eons from the annual die-back of vegetation. It decomposes slowly in the tundra environment and historically is recaptured during the winter freeze. Enter global warming. “As temperatures warm, it’s thought that these organic materials could decompose more rapidly and give rise to gases such as carbon dioxide and methane," Miller said. “The anticipated release of carbon should accelerate climate change...I think the experts all agree that that’s the case. The question that we’re grappling with is how much carbon might be vulnerable to release, and how fast might it be released." One possible scenario is what scientists call a “positive feedback loop,” akin to what’s known in the more common vernacular as a vicious circle that feeds on itself..."
File image above: NASA.
Global Warming Solutions? Scientists Want To Store Carbon Dioxide Underground. Here's the intro to a story at Design & Trend: "A recent geological report suggests a promising way to cut down on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: to inject it and store it in rocks underground. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a detailed assessment and found 36 regions across the country that have proper subterranean conditions to store between 2,400 to 3,7-- metric tons of carbon dioxide underground. "This is just one tool in a range of options that we have, but it's an important one to give us additional time to transition from fossil fuels to nonfossil fuel energy," Mordick told LiveScience..."
Photo credit above: "An aerial view of burning trees is seen during the haze in Indonesia's Riau province June 28, 2013. Indonesian investigators are building criminal cases against eight Southeast Asian companies they suspect of being responsible for raging fires that have blanketed neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia with hazardous smog." (Photo : REUTERS/Beawiharta )