Reader Pet Peeves
"Paul, why does the forecast CHANGE so much from day to day. Knock it off!" I hear you, and I feel your pain. I wish the future was more predictable. Short answer: there are 4 major computer runs every day and scores of different models. Every run taps new data (satellites, weather balloons, surface reports) that "initialize" these computer simulations. This often means tweaks and revisions/changes to the forecast, which should (in theory) get a little more accurate as you approach the day/time in question.
Another irritant: "Paul, I watch 4 TV channels & get 4 different forecasts. Why?" In the end forecasting boils down to interpretation. Which model are you betting on? How will local factors impact the forecast? The best predictions use computers & the human element (past history, intuition - a bit of gut feel).
It's like sausage - you really don't want to know how it's made.
Canada is leaking again; expect blue sky & comfortable 50-degree dew points. A few showers late-week mark the leading edge of a real cool front; by Saturday you may need a sweat shirt up north. Sunday looks milder, a better lake day.
El Nino may be returning, a warmer phase in the Pacific. Could that mean a milder winter?
Hey, a guy can dream...
My top tips:
- Always make sure that children have access to a regular supply of water, as they dehydrate faster.
- On particularly hot days, always make sure you have access to enough water.
- For car journeys, keep different sizes of water bottles e.g. smaller bottles for children and larger bottles for parents, in a cool bag with ice packs.
- If not using a cool bag, keep bottled water in a cool, dry place to help maintain its quality.
- For short and long-haul flights make sure you drink enough water before flying..."
National Geographic has more information on where you can cool down, naturally, here.
Photo credit above: Feng Sheng Hu. "Fireweed, which is bright pink in color, is a plant that often grows after an area has been burned. Here, fireweed is shown blanketing parts of Alaska's Yukon Flats, a fire-prone boreal region."
"I read the viewing of Northern Lights are suppose to be really good this year. Can you tell me where is Minnesota is the best place to view the Northern Lights? Also, the date (s) and time?
Thank you in advance for your help."
"Whats Fall weather going to be like.....?"
Jerome and Kim Niss
Jerome and Kim, the short answer is "cooler", but that doesn't seem very satisfying. In recent years autumns have been trending longer and milder, in other words we seem to hang onto summer warmth a little longer than we did 30-40 years ago. There's a chance an El Nino (warming) phase may return in the Pacific, which correlates with milder falls and winters across Minnesota. But that just may be wishful thinking. Back to my original forecast. "Cooler".
Photo credit above: "This picture of an irridescent cloud was submitted by a National Geographic reader. The photo was taken in Noida, India." Photograph by Harish Venkatesh.
Photo credit above: "#1 Rhein II – Andreas Gursky (1999) $4.3 million."
Photo credit above: "Two best friends on a swing." Source: volobuev.me
Graphic credit above: "Temperature in the northern hemisphere since 1000 CE. Natural variation in the climate cycle does not contradict climate scientists' predictions." Graph: IPCC report
Image credit above: "Exposed. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) may be more vulnerable to global warming than thought. Sediments drilled offshore of the continent's Wilkes Land Subglacial Basin indicate that the basin was ice-free during parts of the warm Pliocene Epoch." Credit: Integrated Ocean Drilling Program
Image credit: University of Colorado, Boulder.
Photo credit: "Soil – of a sort. Changes to microbial life may affect erosion and fertility of the soil we need." Credit: Arman333 via Wikimedia Commons.