Summer Roller Coaster
If you have one foot in ice-water, the other in boiling water, do you feel "average"? Since June 1 both heating and cooling degree days, a measure of how far we are from 65F, are running above average in the Twin Cities.
How can it be warmer AND cooler? Evidence of more extremes? A few extra-hot weeks earlier in July coupled with chilly surges in early June & late July? Yes, this summer has been a meteorological roller coaster.
"I don't find this apparent paradox unusual. It's a mathematical quirk stemming from the way heating and cooling degree days are calculated" Minnesota state climatologist Greg Spoden said yesterday.
The National Weather Service says last Saturday brought the coolest July temperature (36F) ever observed in southern Minnesota at 850 millibars (4,100 feet).
It may be an omen of freakish August cool fronts to come. ECMWF (European) guidance shows another jab of chilly air pouring south the second week of August. If this verifies we could see some 50s up north: metro highs in the 60s.
The jet stream is still misbehaving - something significant has changed.
A cooler front sparks a shower today; comfortable sun returning Wednesday into Saturday; highs near 80F. An anemic "warm front", yes.
- Researchers are understanding more clearly how multiyear
cycles such as El Niño and La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
influence tornado frequency. For example, when La Niña is transitioning
to El Niño during springtime, the odds of a major tornado
outbreak—especially in the Midwest and South—appear to be almost twice
as large as in neutral springs, according to a recent Journal of Climate paper led by Sang-Ki Lee (University of Miami/NOAA).
- The NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) now issues nine-month forecasts of U.S. circulation anomalies four times each day. This makes it a potential foundation for building weekly to seasonal tornado outlooks.
- High-resolution regional models that simulate thunderstorms directly—such as ARW, the NCAR-based Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model—can now be linked to larger-scale climate models..."
Graphic credit above: "This is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model showing the Tropical Storm Flossie precipitation forecast for the Hawaiian Islands on July 29, 2013. HWRF is one of the sophisticated numerical computer models now being run on NOAA's new supercomputers."
Photo credit above: Lucas Jackson, Reuters.
Photo credit above: "On the White House grounds, there were 16 trees uprooted and 25 that were damaged during the severe thunderstorm of July 30, 1913." (Library of Congress).
According to infographic ‘Online in 60 Seconds’, there are 2 million searches on Google, 72 hours of videos uploaded onto YouTube, 42 thousands post every second and 1.8 million likes on Facebook, and 204 million emails sent every minute.
Photo credit: "You are blowing my mind Zev." Source: fiddleoak / via: fiddleoak.wordpress.com
Photo credit above: "A bicyclist makes his way past a stranded taxi on a flooded New York City street Aug. 28, 2011, as Tropical Storm Irene passes through the city." (Photo: Peter Morgan, AP).
Photo credit: Brett Brownell, Mother Jones.
Photo credit above: REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol. "The bottom line is that global warming is fueling the extreme weather that we've witnessed, and it will only become more frequent and severe unless we act."