Beware of... Flossie?
Tropical Storm Flossie is roughing up Hawaii with flooding rains and surging seas at this hour. I know, "Flossie" sounds like a dentist's mascot. Ironically, this Flossie is taking a path almost identical to another Hurricane Flossie in 2007, a Category 4 that passed south of Hawaii. Once a decade Hawaii gets a sloppy tropical smack. The last devastating storm? Iniki in 1992.
While filming the movie "Jurassic Park" Hurricane Iniki pummeled the island chain. It was a close call. "We were at the Westin on Kauai, and they told us to seek shelter in the basement" Steven Spielberg told me many years ago. The basement? That works in a tornado, but in a hurricane a vertical evacuation is safest - the 3rd or 4th floor of a well-constructed building.
Morning showers herald the approach of a warmer front today; more numerous T-storms Wednesday as another puff of Canadian air approaches. Comfortable sunshine spills over into next weekend, highs in the 70s to near 80. About as good as it gets.
Check the blog below for updates on "Dorian", which may regain tropical storm force soon as it moves into an area of warmer ocean water and weaker wind shear. Some models drift Dorian into south Florida, possibly the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend - and there's a chance it could be a hurricane by then. Stay tuned.
A Hot Weather Hiatus. I still don't see anything hot or humid through the first week of August, possibly longer. ECMWF guidance shows a dry, comfortable spell (upper 70s and low 80s) from Thursday into Saturday (nicer day of the weekend). Another cool front is shaping up for the first half of next week, highs in the low to mid 70s.
Partial Relief Northern USA - Will Dorian Redevelop? The 84-hour NAM model data (courtesy of NOAA) shows the soggy remains of Dorian regenerating into a possible tropical storm, approaching Florida as early as Florida. I'm not so sure. The storm will have to overcome persistent wind shear to have a chance of redeveloping into a tropical storm. Showers and T-storms are most likely from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, the next cool push sparking a soggy spell for the East Coast by Wednesday and Thursday.
Image credit above: "Climatology for tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Ocean." Image Credit: NOAA.
Photo credit above: Ramon Espinosa/Associated Press. "A driver in Havana during Hurricane Sandy last year, which dealt a huge blow, Killing 11 people."
Photo credit above: "Summer heatwaves are having dramatic effect on crops." Photograph: Gary Hawkins/Rex Features
* a 29 page PDF overview from the UK Met Office is here.
Photo credit above: " .