Ill-Timed Warm Front
My barber, Hurricane Heidi Rusch, was brutally blunt: "my clients are DISGUSTED by spring, Paul. They're so sick of cool and wet they don't even want to talk about it!" It's been a tortured spring, and I'm keeping weather-expectations for the first unofficial holiday of summer low, hoping we might be pleasantly surprised.
Showers are likely tonight, a damp start Saturday with leftover clouds and highs stuck in the 50s. Grade: C-. Sleep in & see a movie. A few T-storms push across southern Minnesota Sunday - not an all-day rain, but have a Plan B for part of the day. A C+ day, but a few degrees milder. Memorial Day looks a bit better as a warm front lifts north; the best chance of T-storms early. Skies may brighten enough by afternoon for highs topping 70F. A solid B, and that's grading on a curve.
Sticky, summerlike 80s return from the middle of next week into early June with swarms of T-storms; a few may be severe.
Today's blog has an ominous hurricane prediction for 2013, along with news of some recent technology failures, including the GOES-13 weather satellite, which provides critical data for weather models and hurricane forecasts.
What can possibly go wrong?
The timing of these technical malfunctions and NOAA budget challenges and proposed furloughs is unfortunate...
Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:
- A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which
includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the
ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
- Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
- El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation..."
Photo credit above: "The sun rises in the distance as a morning thunderstorm moves over homes damaged from a tornado in Moore, Okla., May 23, 2013. With authorities saying they have likely recovered all the bodies to be found beneath the rubble left by the Category 5 tornado Monday, the focus turned to the long and expensive path of recovering from one of the most catastrophic storms in Oklahoma's history." (Eric Thayer/The New York Times)
Photo credit above: "Robert Hanna, civil engineer, and Jeff Ice, quality assurance inspector, both from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, check out a tornado shelter." Photo courtesy of US Army Corps of Engineers
Graphic credit above: "NOAA rending of a GOES satellite." Credit: NOAA.
Photo credit above: "
Photo credit above: "No one can say with any assurance what the dollar value of damages would be from the highly uncertain climate changes that might accompany a planet earth that is steadily warming.: PBS NewsHour.
* Trenberth's article at The Conversation, with additional graphics and imagery, is here.
Photo credit above: "Scientists can't say yet whether global warming will increase tornadoes." Photograph by Carsten Peter, National Geographic
Graphic credit above: "Probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a location as averaged from 1982-2011. This shows the highest odds of severe weather on Monday were in Oklahoma." Credit: Storm Prediction Center.
Photo credit above: "Billy McElrath, left, sits on a 1968 convertible Corvette buried under rubble in what was the garage of his home in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 21, 2012. The residents of Moore, Okla., affected by a deadly tornado, are coming back to find their belongings scattered and their homes left in pieces." (AP Photo/Sean Murphy)