Looks Like a Holiday
First let me compliment you on your lawn! Never greener. Flowers are popping up nicely, water in our lakes, farmers breathing a big sigh of relief as the drought eases statewide. No drought in the metro; we've gone from 67 percent of Minnesota in severe/extreme drought back in early April to 7 percent of the state now. So we have something to show for our lousy spring, right?
The holiday forecast?
How 'bout that new Vikings stadium!
I'm stalling because I'm not thrilled with the forecast either.
"Paul, can't one of your new companies make it stop raining on the weekends?" someone asked me yesterday. Any weather modification company would have one mad scientist, and 50 lawyers to handle all the lawsuits. Because you truly can't please all the people all the time.
Today is the coolest day; highs stuck in the upper 50s and low 60, more clouds than sun with a passing shower, especially over far southern Minnesota. A heavier T-shower is possible Sunday, again Monday, but the latest model runs don't look quite as wet from the MSP metro on north, keeping the heaviest storms over far southern counties. There may be a few sunny breaks, especially up north, but I can't promise beauty and splendor - a bit cool for the lake, not that lake water temperatures are even close to swimmable. We finally mellow to 70F Memorial Day (cue a brass band and chorus line); peeks of sun with another T-storm for good measure.
80s return midweek; a stormy, potentially severe pattern the next 2 weeks. Everything is being delayed by a good month - I expect May weather to finally arrive in June, and something tells me we'll be spending some quality time in our basements. Severe season is just starting.
12.13 inches at Grand Meadow, 9.16 inches at Spring Valley, 9.03 inches at Austin, and 8.63 inches at Rochester. The all-time maximum rainfall for the month of May in Minnesota is 15.79 inches at St Francis (Anoka County) in 2012. If Grand Meadow (Mower County) has a wet last week of May, they may threaten that state record this month. For southeastern Minnesota counties May of 2013 already ranks as the 5th wettest May in history, averaging nearly 7 inches of rainfall. This number is likely to increase over the next week before the month concludes next Friday..."
Photo credit above: "A handout photo of a tornado in Newcastle, Okla., before it reached Moore, about 10 miles away, on May 20, 2013. With authorities saying they have likely recovered all the bodies to be found beneath the rubble left by the Category 5 tornado, the focus turned to the long and expensive path of recovering from one of the most catastrophic storms in Oklahoma's history." (Nick Rutledge via The New York Times).
1. Meteorologists aren’t any good at forecasting these storms.
How does 99.3 percent sound? In 2011, 553 people lost their lives in tornadoes. For all but four of those victims (99.3 percent), both a tornado watch and a tornado warning were in effect before the storm arrived. Modern tornado warnings are Nobel Prize-worthy endeavors that combine weather science, social science and technology. As recently as 1990, people in the path of a tornado were lucky to get five minutes’ warning. Now, thanks to advances in radar, computer simulations and research on how tornadoes develop, the average “lead time” is 12 minutes — and more than 15 minutes for major tornadoes. The city of Moore had a stunning 36 minutes of warning..."
The timing of these technical malfunctions and NOAA budget challenges and proposed furloughs is unfortunate...
Photo credit above: "Lightning in the sky over debris from the tornado that devastated Moore, Okla., Thursday, May 23, 2013." (AP Photo/Tulsa World, Mike Simons)
Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:
- A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which
includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the
ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;
- Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and
- El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation..."
Photo credit above: Brad Birkholz.
Photo credit above: "Wild Fire via Flick CC."
Photo credit above: "
Photo credit above: "No one can say with any assurance what the dollar value of damages would be from the highly uncertain climate changes that might accompany a planet earth that is steadily warming.: PBS NewsHour.
* Trenberth's article at The Conversation, with additional graphics and imagery, is here.
Photo credit above: "Scientists can't say yet whether global warming will increase tornadoes." Photograph by Carsten Peter, National Geographic
Graphic credit above: "Probability of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a location as averaged from 1982-2011. This shows the highest odds of severe weather on Monday were in Oklahoma." Credit: Storm Prediction Center.