Jackets and Shorts
There is a natural pace to the weather; cold and warm air advancing and retreating, like ocean waves on the beach.
Lately those tsunami-like waves have been breaking faster & harder: 145 Minnesota tornadoes in 2010, record heat/drought in 2012, 18 inch April snows & icy Fishing Openers in 2013? It feels like Mother Nature is swerving down the highway, careening from one extreme to the next.
Case in point: this week. We go from frost up north Sunday to Fire Weather Watches today to 90F Tuesday. A Fire Watch means low humidity and 40 mph winds may fan fast-moving wildfires, especially Tuesday afternoon. T-storms may pop up here later today; a sudden surge of heat & moisture may spark a few severe T-storms tomorrow over Wisconsin.
Highs approach 90F tomorrow before cooling off later this week. It's still a wet pattern; showers return late week with potentially heavy rain next weekend - especially Sunday.
The pattern still looks like something out of April. Sustained hot weather has been delayed - I still expect a cooler, wetter, stormier summer than 2012.
Sick of "Sprinter" (an unholy marriage of spring & winter?) A chilly bias means we're spending less time hiding in basements. No MN tornadoes as of May 13.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING... .HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEARS 25 PERCENT AND COMBINES WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW HIGH. IF DEWPOINTS CAN INCREASE HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THAT ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRE DANGER COULD BE LESSENED SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * WINDS...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 22 PERCENT. * IMPACTS...WILDFIRES COULD BECOME FAST MOVING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
From Alerts Broadcaster (issued Sunday):
* Potential for tropical storm or hurricane development impacting the USA in the next 2 weeks has diminished. Long-range guidance hints at possible tropical development and very heavy rain for Cancun and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, but the risk has dropped for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We're watching it carefuly.
- Although many think of Massachusetts as having one distinct dialect, it actually has four.
- Pennsylvania is the most linguistically complex state in the country.
- In the whole U.S., there are about 130 million people for whom the word "cot" rhymes with "caught," and another 220 million for whom the two words are pronounced in ways that don't rhyme.
* A close-up of the USA dialect map and detailed information on the impressive research that went into this is here.
* image above: Tucson Urban Gardener.
“One of our major findings is that the Arctic was very warm in the Pliocene [~ 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago] when others have suggested atmospheric CO2 was very much like levels we see today. This could tell us where we are going in the near future. In other words, the Earth system response to small changes in carbon dioxide is bigger than suggested by earlier models,” the authors state.....How sensitive is the climate to increases in CO2, according to this “absolutely new knowledge” of paleoclimate temperatures?
Another significant finding to emerge from this first continuous, high-resolution record of the Middle Pliocene is documentation of sustained warmth with summer temperatures of about 59 to 61 degrees F [15 to 16 degrees C], about 8 degrees C [14 F] warmer than today..."Graphic credit above: "Arctic sea ice is melting much, much faster than even the best climate models had projected (actual observations in red). The reason is most likely unmodeled amplifying feedbacks. The image (from Climate Crocks via Arctic Sea Ice Blog) comes from a 2007 GRL research paper by Stroeve et al."
Graphic credit above: "Global progress on renewable energy graphic." Credit: Climate Commission.