The New Abnormal
Residents of Brimson, Minnesota, just inland from Two Harbors, woke up to a jaw-dropping low of 30F Wednesday morning - chilliest reading in the lower 48 states. A week from now Brimson and much of Minnesota will see highs near 90F. Remarkable.
We've always been pushed around by cold fronts and heat spikes but the last few years have brought even steeper curves on a global temperature roller coaster ride. The greater the temperature swings the higher the potential for memorable storms.
Former Energy Secretary Bill Richardson writes "Since 2011 the USA has experienced 25 extreme weather events that each caused more than $1 billion in damages. These events contributed to the loss of more than 1,000 lives and each American family paying $400 more per year".
A symptom of more heat and energy in the system? Probably.
Wave goodbye to the Dog Days of September; we heat up into the 80s this weekend - 90F possible early next week as dew points climb into the mid 60s, up in the oh-zone. Most of us won't see T-storms until next Wednesday. No frost, hail or hurricanes either.
We're watching the tropics; there's a risk that "Erin" may become a hurricane and track toward New Orleans.
......NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA....... BRMM5: BRIMSON................: DHM / M / 30 / 0.00 COKM5: COOK...................: DH0600/ 64 / 44 / 0.00 DLHM5: DULUTH NWS.............: DH0700/ 69 / 44 / 0.00 EMBM5: EMBARRASS..............: DH0600/ 66 / 31 / 0.00 ILIM5: ISLAND LAKE 4E.........: DH0900/ 67 / 40 / 0.00 KABM5: KABETOGAMA.............: DH0700/ 65 / 37 / 0.00 LEIM5: ORR 3E.................: DH0600/ 63 / 35 / 0.00
Photo credit above: Imara Hixon.
Latest (12z Wednesday) model runs increase the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane to impact the Gulf Coast this weekend. The most reliable model (HWRF) brings a minimal, Category 1 hurricane into New Orleans and Mobile, but confidence levels on this track are still low, a 2 out of 10. The previous run of the HWRF suggested a possible Texas landfall early next week, so even the most accurate/reliable models are still highly erratic. That said, we are encouraging our clients with Gulf Coast exposure to review hurricane response plans and prepare to activate those plans within 24-48 hours.
Summary: latest models increase the possibility of a more northerly track across the Gulf of Mexico. It's still too early to pin down final track, intensity and implications with any level of confidence, but facilities on or near the Gulf of Mexico should be in a heightened state of alert, with possible impacts as early as Saturday. We'll keep you posted.
Photo credit above: Leah Hogsten | The Salt Lake Tribune) "A wildfire in Summit County has forced an evacuation of a community and destroyed up to 15 homes as flames continued spreading Tuesday evening. The fire is across the road from Lake Rockport Estates, which runs adjacent to State Road 32 near hamlets of Coalville and Wanship. Residents there were ordered to evacuate Tuesday, August 13, 2013."
Photo credit above: "Argentine ants have spread across Europe, but there are many more alien species."
Photo credit above: "A phone running OpenSignal's WeatherSignal app."
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