Relief by Sunday
Weather forecasting, as in life, is a painful learning curve. "You'll earn a college degree to call yourself a meteorologist, but I predict most of what you learn will be on the job" my father told me at a tender age. Learn from your mistakes.
Ask a stock broker, financial planner, entrepreneur or CIA analyst - the future is always some unknowable shade of gray.
We have a pretty good grasp of what's happening now, and hundreds of weather models simulate what MAY happen days from now, with varying degrees of skill.
Which model do you trust and why? How many times have you been burned by a similar scenario? Maybe someday we'll be able to fully automate & computerize the forecast ("Siri" on steroids?) but today the most reliable weather predictions tap computers & meteorologists, who know what to believe, and when.
Highs approach 90 into Saturday, when a late-day T-storm marks the arrival of a refreshing front of Canadian origin.
By Sunday & Monday highs hold in the 70s, with 60s up north. Take a sweatshirt if you're heading to the cabin. Next week looks comfortable; 70s and low 80s with lower humidity. Students & teachers will be happier.
A perfect Labor Day for the fair? Yep.
Temperature Roller Coaster. After peaking in the upper 80s and low 90s Saturday, a fresh surge of Canadian air drops highs into the 70s Sunday and Labor Day, then we warm back up into 80s the latter half of next week. I hope the ECMWF is temporarily out to lunch, because it shows us falling off a temperature cliff by next weekend, a high of 84 a week today, then 30 degrees cooler on Saturday. Dew points in the sticky 60s linger into Saturday night, falling into the 40s by Labor Day and Tuesday before returning to muggy levels by midweek. Hang on. Chart: Weatherspark.
Shifting Gears. The arrival of air that's 20-25 degrees cooler will set off a smear of heavy showers and T-storms from the U.P. of Michigan into New England, where some 1-3" rainfall amounts are possible. Expect a soaking from the Florida Panhandle into the Ohio Valley, more heavy rain and flash flooding potential for northern Arizona.
Parade of Cool Fronts. The 84 hour NAM model (NOAA) shows a series of Canadian fronts sweeping across the northern tier of the USA, sparking a few waves of showers and T-storms. The tropics remain quiet, monsoon-related showers and T-storms over the southwest USA.
Image credit above: "A satellite image of the 2003 Cedar Fire in San Diego County, known as the largest single fire in modern California history." Photograph courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC.
Photo credit above: "A blue sky behind a stand of charred ponderosa pines along Highway 120, burned by the Rim fire that has eaten up more than 230 square miles and 15% of the state's firefighting budget." (Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times / August 26, 2013)
Dieting Myth 1: Eating Fat Makes You Fat
"The name says it all: Fat makes you fat, right? Wrong! Eating a small amount of fat actually helps you feel fuller faster as it triggers satiety (or fullness) signals, causing you to eat less overall. Not only that, eating the right fats aids in the absorption of healthy vitamins. Seek out the polyunsaturated fats you’ll find in liquid oils, like canola and safflower oil. Unlike saturated fats, they won’t raise bad blood cholesterol levels and may even reduce the risk of a heart attack. To get your healthy fat fix, also look for omega-3 oils from fish, krill, seafood, algae, flaxseeds and/or walnuts, and olive oil, which is a source of both monounsaturated fats and omega-3s..."
Graphic credit: one of my favorite sites, someecards.com.
95 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.
78 F. average high on August 29.
93 F. high on August 29, 2012.
7 days above 90 F. in August. Average is 3.
4 days of 95 F. or higher this week - making it the hottest Minnesota State Fair on record.
Photo credit: "Most global warming is absorbed by the world's oceans." Photograph: Alamy.
File Photo credit above: Wikimedia Commons. "Martin Luther King, Jr., speaking against the Vietnam War, St. Paul Campus, University of Minnesota."