Hi, my name is Paul, and I'm a failure. Launching a company is an exercise in humility - because things never work out the way you predict.
Anyone who thinks their business model won't change is delusional. Experimentation is critical, in business and in life. "Fail as fast as you can" one Silicon Valley entrepreneur said. As one of my mentors taught me, "If you're not failing it means you're not really trying."
I know, meteorologists fail for a living, the 87 percent accuracy rate for the tomorrow forecast hasn't improved in 30 years, in spite of better satellites, models & Doppler. The 3-7 day forecast is considerably better & fewer Americans are dying from severe weather, in spite of a spike in extreme events.
Dr. Mark Seeley reports International Falls just went 28 consecutive days with cooler than normal temperatures. I hope you enjoyed our 1 month cool front because Mother Nature is about to turn up the thermostat; 90-95F highs possible by midweek. I expect more 90s from from the last week of August into early September.
Expect a beautiful weekend; a slight chance of thunder Monday & Thursday.
On the blog: updates on what may become "Fernand", limping toward Texas.
More July Than August. Your favorite lake may warm up again (a little) in the coming days; highs consistently in the 80s thru next weekend, a few 90s possible by next Tuesday and Wednesday. Not much rain in the forecast; an isolated T-shower Monday, a better chance of a few T-storms for Day 1 of the Minnesota State Fair next Thursday.
Summary: models are beginning to converge on a solution with higher reliability. My confidence level has risen to a 3 out of 10 that coastal Texas will be impacted by a moderate tropical storm or even a minimal Category 1 hurricane. Gulf Coast facilities and staff should remain in a heightened state of alert and readiness, with the greatest focus on coastal Texas, from Galveston to Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Wherever "Fernand" comes ashore the risk of inland flooding will be significant, with a potential for some 5-15" rains. We'll keep you posted and do our very best to set your expectations in the days ahead.
Photo credit above: "A sunshine warrior." Reuters/Lucy Nicholson
- Do you want to be near friends and family?
- Will you be taking care of aging parents? If yes, will you need to be close by?
- Do you have hobbies or interests that play into where you’d want to live?
Image credit above: "The Royal Palace of Amsterdam in the Netherlands -- called Koninklijk Paleis Amsterdam -- joins a long list of places blurred on Google Maps related to the Dutch royal family, including the Royal Stables and another residence called Huis ten Bosch."
Photo credit above: "Men take a rest by an exhaust outlet of a building during a hot summer day in Beijing, China Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2013. Heat wave hit several cities, mostly in the south and east of China as temperature went up above 40 degrees C (104 F) in some parts." (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
File photo above: "Pres. Jimmy Carter speaks against a backdrop of solar panels at the White House, Wednesday, June 21, 1979, Washington, D.C. The panels catch the suns rays and warm water used in parts of the Executive mansion." (AP Photo/Harvey Georges)
Would Things Be Different If The Public Had Perfect Information On Climate Science And Solutions? Here's a portion of a Joe Romm post at Think Progress: "Last week, I wrote about the important Dunlap-McRight paper that found organized climate change denial “Played a Crucial Role in Blocking Domestic Legislation.” Although this is a pretty obvious conclusion to objective observers, the false-equivalence bunch, led by blogger Andy Revkin, couldn’t bring themselves to report on it without giving the professional disinformers equal time. John Rennie, the former editor in chief of Scientific American, slammed Revkin’s piece in a must-read post, “Revkin’s False Equivalence on Climate Message Machines.” Rennie was particularly critical of Revkin’s equating the climate denial machine with a laughable “climate alarmism machine” (whipped up by an Australian disinformer), which equates those who spread outright anti-scientific disinformation (often funded by fossil-fuel interests) with the serious work of climate scientists and governments (and others) who make use of that genuine, scientific work..."
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Photo credit above: "Low water levels in Lake Medina northwest of San Antonio, Texas." Credit: Mike Fisher/flickr
Photo credit above: "George Shultz and President Reagan in 1986." Photo by White House staff, from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, National Archives and Records Administration/wikimedia.