Two weeks ago I found myself on an (annoyed) horse near Pine River, clad in a sweatshirt on a cool 50-degree morning - marveling at frost reports near Embarrass.
"Can't you warm it up Paul?!!" my friends whined. Yep.
Here comes a record-setting late-season heat wave; afternoon highs may reach 95-100F. According to the local National Weather Service this may well be the hottest Minnesota State Fair since 1948, when we endured 4 days hotter than 94F at the State Fair.
An Excessive Heat Watch is posted from Sunday afternoon into Wednesday evening, when 90s coupled with a dew point topping 70F will make it feel like 95-105F in the shade. Yes, the lake will look extra-inviting in the days to come.
ECMWF guidance hints at two distinct pulses of coma-inducing heat, one "wave" the first half of this week, a second surge of mid to upper 90s next weekend. I wouldn't be a bit shocked to see a 100-degree high within 72 hours.
Question: is it bad form to SLEEP in the lake? I'm about to find out.
A stray T-storm is possible this morning, but don't expect much rain into Labor Day. It'll be too hot & stable overhead.
Heading to the Fair? My advice: go early and avoid alcohol. Stay hydrated.
Sunday: 94 (1948)
Monday: 94 (1948)
Tuesday: 99 (1926:
Wednesday: 94 (1955)
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TEMPERATURE: AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 95 AND 105 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S. * IMPACTS: THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT RELATED STRESS AND ILLNESS... ESPECIALLY FOR THE YOUNG AND ELDERLY...THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING...AND PEOPLE PARTICIPATING IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
The western Pacific is home to the largest, most intense hurricanes on Earth, the result of a larger ocean and more runway available to strengthen a developing storm. Its more semantics than science and the notion of a Cat 6 requires a few assumptions, but if you merely extrapolate out the current Saffir Simpson scale (15-25 mph of sustained wind speed difference between a 3, 4 and 5) “Tip” – a super-typhoon in 1979 - would qualify, with sustained winds at it's peak of 190 mph. Here's an excerpt from Wikipedia:
“Typhoon Tip (international designation: 7920, JTWC designation: 23W, PAGASA name: Warling) was the largest and most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded. The nineteenth storm and twelfth typhoon of the 1979 Pacific typhoon season, Tip developed out of a disturbance in the monsoon trough on October 4 near Pohnpei. Initially, a tropical storm to the northwest hindered the development and motion of Tip, though after it tracked further north Tip was able to intensify. After passing Guam, Tip rapidly intensified and reached peak winds of 305 km/h (190 mph)[nb 1] and a worldwide record-low sea-level pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg) on October 12. At its peak strength, it was also the largest tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi).”
“The typhoon was also the most intense tropical cyclone on record with a pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg), 6 mbar (6.0 hPa; 0.18 inHg) lower than the previous record set by Super Typhoon June in 1975.The records set by Tip still stand, though with the end of routine reconnaissance aircraft in the western Pacific Ocean in August 1987, modern researchers questioned if Tip is the strongest on record. After a detailed study, three researchers determined that two typhoons, Angela in 1995 and Gay in 1992, maintained higher Dvorak numbers than Tip, and believed that one or both of the two may have been more intense than Tip. Also, Cyclone Monica of 2006 was rated at 869 mbar (869.0 hPa; 25.66 inHg) by Dvorak classifications, although this was dismissed since the source was unofficial.”
I hate to lean on Wikipedia, but it does a pretty good job of summarizing Tip and other extreme typhoons/hurricanes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip. Who knows, maybe our kids or grandkids will someday look back upon a time when their aging relatives laughed at the idea of a "Cat 6".
Photo credit above: "Kesennuma, in the Tohoku region of Japan, was devastated in a March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami. A researcher studying recent megaquakes says this one, centered some 300 miles from Tokyo, could actually mean an increased risk of a quake hitting Japan's capital, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world." Suzanne Mooney / Barcroft Media /Landov
Cartoon credit above: David Horsey / Los Angeles Times (August 21, 2013).
Photo credit above: "Kevin Trenberth is a distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research." Rich Crowder/Corbis.
Graphic credit above: Architecture Research Office and dlandstudio
Photo credit above: "Maj. Sean M. Sadlier (left) of the U.S. Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office explains the solar power element of the Expeditionary Forward Operating Base concept to Col. Anthony Fernandez during the testing phase of this sustainable energy initiative here, May 19. The ExFOB is designed primarily for use by small Marine Corps units at forward operating bases in Afghanistan. Fernandez, a Marine Corps Reservist with a combined 28 years in the Corps, is the African Lion 2010 task force commander here." DATE: May 21, 2010 BY: U.S. Marine Forces Africa LOCATION: The African Lion operation, where this comes from, was based in Morocco Photo: Insight25_breen_PHa, Maj. Paul Greenberg.
The people of Barnhart, a tiny West Texas community near San Angelo, are certainly paying attention. Thanks to fracking's outsized water demands, the town well has gone dry. The town's water crisis brings to mind another old saw: "The prospect of being hanged focuses the mind wonderfully." In Barnhart, where a severe and lingering drought already had put a strain on the water supply, minds are focused these days, though not so wonderfully..."File photo above: ThinkStock.