To Know The Future
“But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand" wrote Jerome K. Jerome, author of Three Men in a Boat.
News anchors and sportscasters tell you what already happened. Meteorologists are the only ones foolish enough to predict what tomorrow may bring.
But technology and experience only go so far. Roughly 13 percent of 24-hour forecasts are "busts", and that number hasn't improved, in spite of Doppler, amazing satellites & better weather models. Yet we keep tuning in.
In a chaotic world, where little is predictable, having any insight on expected weather gives us a hint of reassurance. The 7-Day? Let's not go there.
The approach of tropical air ignites a spirited round of T-storms; a few downpours are expected this morning with drippy dew points approaching 70F - skies brightening this afternoon. Another vigorous cool front approaches midweek, sparking more T-storms late Tuesday and a cooler breeze by Wednesday.
We're stuck in a stubbornly persistent blocking pattern, with northwest winds aloft keeping us cooler than average the next 2 weeks.
A Year Without A (real) August? I think so.
Photo credit: "A photo released by the Oregon Department of Forestry shows a Redmond Hotshots crew on the Douglas Complex conducting a burnout operation in the last week of July to create a barrier to the wildfire’s advance by removing fuel in its path.. While southern Oregon was hardest hit by thunderstorm-caused fires last week, central Oregon picked up numerous lightning starts as well." (AP Photo/Oregon Department of Forestry).
Image credit above: "The map above shows land surface temperature anomalies for July 20–27, 2013, collected by the MODIS imager on NASA's Terra satellite." Credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Photo credit: Sgt. Mike MacLeod/U.S. Army.
Photo credit above: "Transmission lines along Highway 41 near Morro Bay." JOHN LINDSEY.
Photo credit above: Dr. Joseph Levy / The University of Texas Institute for Geophysics. "Research team member Jim O'Connor of the USGS inspects a block of ice calved off the Garwood Valley ice cliff."
The report finds:
- Lacking access to the capital and resources of large corporations, small businesses can suffer lasting economic damage as a result of a single extreme weather event. For example, of the 60,000 to 100,000 small businesses negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy, up to 30 percent are estimated to have failed as a direct result of the storm..."