Yesterday was another meteorological disconnect, gazing out at a supernaturally-green lawn in need of one last mowing - long shadows cast by a feeble sun barely clearing the treetops. A fleeting ration of blue sky.
The sun is as high as it was in late January; longer nights and snow on the ground brewing up colder colds across Canada. A fresh burst of wind chill will chase away any visions of Indian Summer over the next 48 hours; highs stuck in the 20s today and Tuesday with a wind chill slipping into single digits. Cold enough.
40s return late week; a shot at low 50s next weekend with a little rain Saturday night and early Sunday.
And then things get more interesting. ECMWF (European) model data shows rain changing to snow 1 week from today. Some accumulation is possible as the leading edge of an "arctic gusher" sweeps southward. Think of today as a cold weather appetizer. The main course is 7-10 days away.
It's premature to contemplate snowfall amounts one week from today - although I don't envision a major dumping you might just want to plant your driveway stakes within the next week or so.
The pattern favors cold east and mild west. Autumn is finally succumbing to winter.
Happy Veterans Day. Go out of your way to thank someone who has served or is serving. We owe these men and women nothing less than our freedom.
Photo credit above: "The devastation caused by Typhoon Haiyan, is seen Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013, in Tacloban city, Leyte province in central Philippines. Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most powerful storms on record, slammed into six central Philippine islands on Friday, leaving a wide swath of destruction and scores of people dead." (AP Photo/Toti Navales).
* here's a good link with photos and video clips showing the aftermath of Haiyan from The Washington Post.
* Reuters now estimates the Philippine death toll from Haiyan at "at least 10,000".
* more on the Saffir Simpson Scale for rating hurricane intensities, based on wind speed and damage here.
Photo credit above: "This September 1935 file photo shows the wreckage of an 11-car passenger train that was derailed by a Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys. The Hurricane Center says no wind measurements were available from the core of this small but “vicious” hurricane, which was a Category 5 storm when it reached the Florida Keys. But a pressure measurement taken at Long Key, Fla., makes it the most intense hurricane ever to make landfall on the U.S. mainland. It was blamed for 408 deaths and caused an estimated $6 million (1935 dollars) in damage." Photo: Uncredited, AP.
Graphic credit above: Storm Prediction Center, Roger Pielke Jr., University of Colorado; 1 - Numbers are for Jan. 1 through Oct. 31 of each year. 2013 number is preliminary; 2 - NOAA estimated. Janet Loehrke and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY.
Photo credit above: "A Chinese man covers his nose and mouth as he walks on the street during a day of heavy pollution in Harbin in northeast China's Heilongjiang province Monday Oct. 21, 2013. Visibility shrank to less than half a football field and small-particle pollution soared to a record 40 times higher than an international safety standard in the northern Chinese city as the region entered its high-smog season." (AP Photo)
Fear Of The Dark. How real are the risks of a major failure of the power grid? The New York Times takes a look - here's an excerpt: "...Energy in general is something people like to worry about, said Mr. Apt, and grid failure is the latest target of that anxiety. “It echoes the ‘peak oil’ theme,” he said, referring to the alarmist concern, especially before the advent of fracking, that oil supplies had peaked and were about to shrink, with catastrophic results. The idea of a sustained blackout resonates in the public’s mind, agreed David Ropeik, an expert on risk perception, particularly because it could come from either cyberattack, physical attack by terrorists or even Mother Nature as a side effect of solar flares. “It is one of those low-probability, high-consequence events that every once in awhile scares the bejesus out of us,” he said..."
South Florida Faces Ominous Prospects From Rising Waters. The New York Times has the story - here's a clip: "...Much of Florida’s 1,197-mile coastline is only a few feet above the current sea level, and billions of dollars’ worth of buildings, roads and other infrastructure lies on highly porous limestone that leaches water like a sponge. But while officials here and in other coastal cities, many of whom attended a two-day conference on climate change last week in Fort Lauderdale, have begun to address the problem, the issue has gotten little traction among state legislators in Tallahassee. The issue appears to be similarly opaque to segments of the community — business, real estate, tourism — that have a vested interest in protecting South Florida’s bustling economy..."
Photo credit above: Kevin O’Connor Photo. "Vermont environmental author and activist Bill McKibben speaks at Landmark College in Putney."
Image credit above: "Graphic showing the total amount of heat energy available for Super Typhoon Haiyan to absorb, not just on the surface, but integrated through the water column. Deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple, though any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification. The dotted line represents the best-track and forecast data as of 16:00 UTC on Nov. 7." Credit: NOAA.
More information on the image above provided by NOAA:
"The intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan is being fueled by "ideal" environmental conditions - namely low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 195 mph, well above the Category 5 classification used for Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes. Plotted here is the average Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential product for October 28 - November 3, 2013, taken directly from NOAA View. This dataset, developed byNOAA/AOML, shows the total amount of heat energy available for the storm to absorb, not just on the surface, but integrated through the water column. Deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple, though any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification. The dotted line represents the best-track and forecast data as of 16:00 UTC on November 7, 2013."