Life is random; our future ultimately unknowable. Maybe that's why we take some small comfort in the weather forecast. It's one of the few things we can anticipate with any level of skill.
Perfect? Not by a long shot. The 24-hour forecast accuracy, nationwide, is 88 percent. It's human nature to remember the 12 percent of the time we blow it. Day 3-7 accuracy is improving about 1 percent every year, and new technology has made "surprise" tornadoes, floods & blizzards more unlikely.
Predicting the future is hard. Ask any stock broker or economist. How's your fantasy football team doing? Welcome to my world.
NOAA is predicting a slight cool bias for the Red River Valley into February; no clear trend toward wetter or drier weather for the Upper Midwest. The 90-day outlook is interesting to ponder, but confidence levels are very low, especially this winter. I still think we'll wind up slightly milder; an earlier spring in 2014 than we had this year.
Expect colder than average temperatures into Thanksgiving week but no major storms close to home. A soaking rain may slow things down out east Tuesday & Wednesday; long-range guidance now hinting at a warming trend by the first week of December.
Photo credit above: "A chilly, but dry evening is the most likely weather for kickoff at the Super Bowl at MetLife Stadium." (Robert Sciarrino/The Star-Ledger).
Graphic credit above: "The correlation between the Snow Advance Index (SOI) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) over time." (Judah Cohen).
Photo credit above: "The Douglas complex in southern Oregon was one of the most challenging wildfires during the 2013 season, persisting until mid-September." (Randy L. Rasmussen/The Oregonian)
Which Countries Are Most At Risk From Super Storms And Extreme Weather? AlterNet has the story - here's an excerpt: "...All ten of the countries most at risk from extreme events in the 1993 to 2012 period were developing countries, emphasizing the message in Warsaw that poor countries cannot cope with the increasing number of catastrophes by themselves. The major issue at the conference in the wake of the current Philippine disaster is how to finance “loss and damage” caused by an increasingly unstable climate. The index, compiled by a think tank called Germanwatch from figures supplied by the giant re-insurance company Munich Re, lists ten countries most affected in 2012 and the long-term climate risk from loss of life and damage from 1993 to 2012..." (Image: NASA).
Graphic above courtesy of Carbon Majors.
* Andrew Revkin at The New York Times asks, are these 90 companies to blame, or are we, as consumers of these products and services, ultimately to blame?
Image credit above: ESA. "The 1991 explosion of the Mount Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines. "Aerosoles in the stratosphere reduce the rate of climate change," says David Keith."
Unavoidable Answer For The Problem Of Climate Change. Here's a clip from a story at The New York Times: "...It brings into sharp focus the most urgent challenge: How will the world replace fossil fuels? Can it be done fast enough, cheaply enough and on a sufficient scale without nuclear energy? For all the optimism about the prospects of wind, sun and tides to power our future, the evidence suggests the answer is no. Scrambling to find an alternative fuel to generate some 30 percent of its power, Japan had no choice but to turn to coal and gas..."
Graphic credit above: "Global temperature departures from average for October 2013, which was the seventh-warmest October on record." Credit: NOAA.
Photo credit above: "Coal, whose burning spews about twice the greenhouse gases as natural gas, is not in retreat. In 2011, coal was used to generate 30.3 percent of the world’s primary energy, the highest level since 1969, according to the World Coal Association, an industry trade group. That share slipped only to 29.9 percent last year." Photographer: Dadang Tri/Bloomberg.
The 10 Dumbest Things Climate Deniers Say. MarketWatch has the Op-Ed; here's an excerpt: "...Here’s a paraphrased summary of Diamond’s classic rhetorical one-liners with links to some of our relevant commentaries:
1. Climate costs must be balanced against jobs and the economy
This is Big Oil’s favorite argument. In fact, the only “jobs and economy” the oil industry cares about are their own hundreds of thousands of jobs, over $100 billion in annual profits and trillions in revenues the last decade. Diamond warns: environmental solutions are not a “luxury” with just a cash outflow. “This one-liner puts the truth exactly backwards. ... Environmental messes cost us huge sums of money both in the short run and in the long run” and “cleaning up or preventing those messes saves us huge sums in the long run, and often in the short run as well...”