Cold and Quiet
"Too cold to snow?" Not exactly, but when temperatures are in the teens it often means the storm track, the main superhighway for heavy rain, ice and snow, has been pushed well south of Minnesota.
A well-advertised nor'easter will spread heavy rain and snow right up the east coast today and Wednesday, complicating travel plans. I expect 2-3 inch rains east of I-95, with local flooding. Well inland over the Appalachians some 1-2 foot snows are possible.
1 in 3 Thanksgivings have at least an inch of snow on the ground here in the Twin Cities, but this will not be one of those years. Lake effect snows kick in downwind of the Great Lakes but I expect a brown Thanksgiving. Dry weather spills over into next weekend with slowly moderating temperatures; low 30s returning by the weekend.
Big storms will continue to detour well south of Minnesota into early December, but at some point steering winds will buckle, and we'll see just the right mixture of cold air and moisture for snow.
Keep an eye on mid-December. Last year over 10 inches fell on December 9. Over 17 inches fell on December 10-11, 2010. Will history repeat itself in 2013?
I'm still betting on a very white Christmas.
* Much-advertised storm still on track to soak the East Coast today into Wednesday; significant risk of flash flooding and urban flooding.
* Heavy rain event along and east of I-95; 1-4" snowfall between I-95 and I-81 - potential for a very heavy wet snow over higher elevations from northern Georgia and the Carolinas into the Virginias, central and western Pennsylvania, upstate New York and interior New England.
* Heaviest rain and snow pushes out to sea in time for Thanksgiving.
Summary: The timing isn't great, coming during the most-traveled week of the year for for the USA. The same storm system that has been tormenting the southern Rockies and southern Plains with snow and ice will track up the east coast Tuesday and Wednesday, providing a 1-2 punch of heavy rain and mountain snows. The good news (which is hard to find this morning): right now I don't see any widespread severe storm outbreak or enhanced risk of tornadoes in the warm sector of this storm - and beach erosion from the Outer Banks to Long Island and Cape Cod should be minor to moderate. Tuesday looks like the worst day for the Southeast; Wednesday will be the peak-trouble day for the Mid Atlantic and New England region with significant impact on travel by air and land. Expect delays and impacts to facilities, staff and customers.
Canadians Rescue Shark Choking On Moose. This may be my favorite headline of the week, and it could only happen in Canada (or maybe a remote stretch of northern Alaska). Here's a clip from Outside Magazine: "Two men pulled off what was perhaps the most Canadian animal rescue mission of all time this week when they saved a large Greenland shark from choking to death on a moose. Derrick Chaulk was driving along the coast near Norris Arm North in Newfoundland when he spotted what he believed to be a beached whale. The beached whale turned out to be a shark with a big hunk of moose hide hanging out of its mouth..."
Photo credit above: "Charlotte H. Pownell, consumer relations director at an appliance company, shows off a whole salmon and vegetables, seasoned and cooked in a triple-thickness of foil in a dishwasher in 1970." (Los Angeles Times).
Photo credit: "Delegates attend the closing session of the 19th conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Warsaw, Poland, on Friday, Nov. 22, 2013. The talks intended to lay foundations for the new climate deal in 2015 were scheduled to end Friday, but it became apparent during the day that the fine tuning would go well into Saturday." (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski).
Photo credit above: "The skyline of downtown Los Angeles through a layer of smog is seen in the distance from a rooftop in Hollywood, California, May 31, 2006." Credit: Reuters/Fred Prouser/Files.