November should be medicated. It's a manic month, capable of everything from 70s to subzero - blizzards to lukewarm swoons of Indian Summer.
According to NOAA data since 1980 mean snowfall for November is 9.3 inches, making it the 4th snowiest month of the winter season. Novembers since 2000 have brought an average of 4.1 inches for the Twin Cities, but snowfall numbers in November aren't a good proxy for the winter to come.
Last November less than an inch fell. Easy winter right? Nearly 67 inches later, with slush piling up in May, most Minnesotans begged to differ.
NOAA NCEP's CFS model is printing out significant snow by mid-November, but at this point I'm very skeptical. That said, look for a big temperature tumble right before Thanksgiving. Details below.
A fine late fall weekend is shaping up - highs near 50F today, low 50s Sunday with a stiff breeze. Showers develop on Monday, a cold steadier rain Tuesday, possibly mixing with wet snow over central Minnesota.
Highs hold in the 40s much of next week, another stab at 50s the weekend of November 9-10. Beyond that the crystal ball gets murky.
Snow tires and driveway stakes will remain optional through at least November 12.
* image above: fungram.com.
Just For Laughs And Giggles. Here is predicted snowcover for the USA through December 11, based on NOAA NCEP's CFS (Climate Forecast System). I know, it's interesting to look at, but I'm not (yet) convinced there's any skill here. It shows significant snow reaching Minnesota by November 13-14. I'm skeptical but suspending my disbelief until I see a few more runs (looking for some level of continuity from run to run). Confidence level: 1 (on a scale of 1 to 10). Model animation: Ham Weather.
Photo credit above: "Projections indicate that our rate of trash production will keep rising past 2100—a concern, because waste can be a proxy for all other environmental stresses." Image via Flickr user Jritch77.
Photo credit above: "Morgan Schaller, James Wright, and the core sample that helped them understand what happened - and how fast it happened - 55 million years ago." Credit: James Wright, Rutgers University.
Image credit above: "Departure from average of Arctic surface temperatures during the first decade of the 21st century, as compared to the 1971-2000 average. The map illustrates that no part of the Arctic experienced cooler-than-average conditions during this period." Credit: NOAA.
Photo credit above: "Waste land: large-scale irrigation strips nutrients from the soil, scars the landscape and could alter climatic conditions beyond repair." Image: Edward Burtynsky, courtesy Nicholas Metivier Gallery, Toronto/ Flowers, London, Pivot Irrigation #11 High Plains, Texas Panhandle, USA (2011)