Odds of flipping 345 "heads" in a row? 1 in 1.395 (to the 104th power).
A Global Perspective
In an age of hackers, scams and endless marketing spin it's good to be skeptical. 2013 is running about 1F colder than average in the Twin Cities, and this recent cold spell? Cathy Wurzer posed the question on TPT's "Almanac" Friday "How does this square with global warming Paul?"
Research shows our collective concern about climate change is influenced by the weather. In winter interest wanes. "How can the atmosphere possibly be warming up?" Perception becomes reality.
It's the equivalent of mistaking CNN Headline News for The History Channel. We can't look out our windows and make global assumptions.
November was the warmest ever recorded, worldwide. 345 months/row of temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The odds of flipping 345 heads in a row? 1 in 1.395 (followed by 104 zeros). Even the Lotto has (much) better odds. Healthy skepticism is an effective coping mechanism these days, but I still respond to logic, reason...and math.
The next surge of chilling air squeezes out a couple inches of snow today; another potentially plowable snow on Christmas Eve. Latest model data suggests another 4-6" or more of snow between today and Christmas Day. Subzero fun Tuesday & Friday morning gives way to a brief thaw by Saturday.
2014 will start out Nanook but NOAA's CFS climate model still suggests that January could wind up being a little milder than December. Place your bets.
Summary: Power outages from glaze ice are likely from Oklahoma City and Tulsa into central Missouri, western Illinois and southern Michigan, with a potential for major icing over far northern New York State and northern New England. Heavy snow will disrupt travel by land and air from eastern Kansas into eastern Iowa and much of Wisconsin over the next 36 hours. America experiences more extreme weather than any nation on Earth. Today will be a poignant, ill-timed reminder of that fact. The Winter Solstice Storm of 2013 will impact as many as 75 million Americans between now and Sunday night. Good luck.
Paul Douglas - Senior Meteorologist - Alerts Broadcaster
Photo credit above: "A coal fired plant." Photograph: John Giles/AP.
Billion Dollar Climate Denial Network Exposed. More details from Wired UK.
The Not-Quite-Perfect Storm: Miami Dodged The Bullet Last Time, But Can Its Luck Hold Out? Here's the first part of a series on cities most likely to be impacted by climate change, and in this specific case, rising sea level. Miami is at the top of the list, as reported by Grist - here's an excerpt: "...More than 5.5 million people now live in metro Miami, and the seas have steadily risen. According to a report released in May by the real estate data company CoreLogic, 132,000 homes in Miami, worth $48 billion, are vulnerable to hurricane-driven storm-surge damage. With a one-foot rise in sea level, those numbers jump to 340,000 homes and $94 billion. The World Bank ranks Miami as the most climate vulnerable city in the world. Hurricane Andrew spurred a major overhaul of building codes in Florida and other coastal areas, but no one doubts that a direct hit from a category 5 storm could wreak massive havoc here. The last time a major hurricane hit Miami directly was in 1926. It’s only a matter of time, forecasters say, before the next one arrives...." (Image from 1992 Hurricane Andrew: NOAA).
Graphic credit above: "A map showing winter temperature trends in the U.S. from 1970-2012."
Graphic credit above: Arctic ice volume through 2013 from the Polar Science Center
Photo credit above: Reuters. "The sun is seen behind smoke billowing from a chimney of a heating plant in Taiyuan, Shanxi province December 9, 2013."
Photo credit: Shutterstock.