345 months/row with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average.
Odds of flipping 345 "heads" in a row? 1 in 1.395 (to the 104th power).
A Global Perspective
In
an age of hackers, scams and endless marketing spin it's good to be
skeptical. 2013 is running about 1F colder than average in the Twin
Cities, and this recent cold spell? Cathy Wurzer posed the question on
TPT's "Almanac" Friday "How does this square with global warming Paul?"
Research
shows our collective concern about climate change is influenced by the
weather. In winter interest wanes. "How can the atmosphere possibly be
warming up?" Perception becomes reality.
It's the equivalent of
mistaking CNN Headline News for The History Channel. We can't look out
our windows and make global assumptions.
November was the warmest
ever recorded, worldwide. 345 months/row of temperatures warmer than the
20th century average. The odds of flipping 345 heads in a row? 1 in
1.395 (followed by 104 zeros). Even the Lotto has (much) better odds.
Healthy skepticism is an effective coping mechanism these days, but I
still respond to logic, reason...and math.
The next surge of
chilling air squeezes out a couple inches of snow today; another
potentially plowable snow on Christmas Eve. Latest model data suggests
another 4-6" or more of snow between today and Christmas Day. Subzero
fun Tuesday & Friday morning gives way to a brief thaw by Saturday.
2014
will start out Nanook but NOAA's CFS climate model still suggests that
January could wind up being a little milder than December. Place your
bets.
A Very White Christmas This Year.
The map above shows NAM model guidance for total snowfall between now
and 6 am Christmas Day. With cold temperatures and a rain:snow ratio
close to 1:20 we could easily wind up with 4-7" of additional snow,
coming in two separate bursts: 2-4" today and tonight, another 2-3"
Christmas Eve. Good timing. Map: Ham Weather.
Plowable.
A couple of snowfalls, suitable for plowing and shoveling, are shaping
up. One arrives today, as much as 2-4" of new snow by Monday morning. A
second surge of light snow arrives later in the day Christmas Eve, with
another 2-3" by Christmas morning. I suspect we'll have at least 11"
snow on the ground Christmas Day in the Twin Cities. Graph: Iowa State.
More Canadian Leakage.
New, exotic colors showing up on the 2-meter temperature forecast;
subzero air pushing south Monday, another surge of negative numbers late
Thursday into Friday morning. Hard to believe it was a record 70F in
Washington D.C. on Saturday where locals were playing golf and throwing
Frisbees. Loop: Ham Weather.
A Volatile Temperature Outlook.
Prepare for an unpleasant temperature roller coaster ride (into April),
subzero temperatures likely Tuesday, Thursday and next Monday mornings.
We see some moderation in time for Christmas Day, a fleeting shot at
freezing by Saturday.
45-Day NOAA CFS Model.
Don't bet the farm based on a 45-day "trend", but we're looking for
consistency and continuity from run to run, and I've noticed some skill
with NOAA's Climate Forecast System model. It hints at a very cold start
to 2014, followed by significant moderation the second and third week
of the month. A January Thaw? That would be nice. We'll see. Graphic:
Ham Weather.
Status Quo.
No major shift in the pattern is likely looking out 2 weeks, dominated
by a series of Alberta Clippers swept up in a harsh, northwest wind flow
aloft. That will mean occasional bursts of snow (couple inches of
fluff) and temperatures averaging well below normal into at least the
first few days of 2014. Graphic above: Twin Cities National Weather
Service.
Heavy Snow Potential. Models continue to show a
plume of significant, plowable snow extending from northern Oklahoma into
central and northern Missouri, southern and eastern Iowa, far northwest
Illinois and the southeastern half of Wisconsin. By late Sunday northern New
England will see not only a dangerous layer of ice, but heavy snow as well.
Blizzard Potential Index. Alerts
Broadcaster's internal BPI Index suggests near-blizzard conditions south of Des
Moines, and from the Quad Cities to Milwaukee and Green Bay later today and
tonight.
Severe Icing. Models show a .25"
layer of glaze ice over southeast Kansas and much of central Missouri and
western Illinois, where some power outages are possible. Significant icing is
also expected over Lower Michigan, near Lansing and Ann Arbor (staying just northwest
of Detroit). The most extreme icing is forecast for far northern New York State
and much of Maine, where power outages may be even more widespread by late in
the weekend.
Problematic Rains. In the summer 2-4"
of rain wouldn't cause nearly as many headaches, but the fact that the ground
is frozen means heavy rain falling on the Ohio River Valley will almost
immediately run off into streets, streams and basements. The metro areas above
may see significant flash flooding over the next 24-36 hours.
Flooding Underway. Flash Flood Warnings are
in effect for the Little Rock market, and much of far western Kentucky and
southern Illinois. I expect similar warnings to be issued from Memphis and
Nashville to Louisville, Indianapolis and Columbus.
National Warnings. The USA map is lit up
like a (bad) Christmas Tree this morning, Ice Storm Warnings for Oklahoma City
and Tulsa, Winter Storm Warnings extending all the way into Wisconsin and far
northern Maine. Flash Flood Watches & Warnings are posted from northeast Texas
into upstate New York for rapid run-off as heavy rain falls on frozen ground.
Summary: Power outages from glaze ice are likely from Oklahoma City
and Tulsa into central Missouri, western Illinois and southern Michigan, with a
potential for major icing over far northern New York State and northern New
England. Heavy snow will disrupt travel by land and air from eastern Kansas
into eastern Iowa and much of Wisconsin over the next 36 hours. America
experiences more extreme weather than any nation on Earth. Today will be a
poignant, ill-timed reminder of that fact. The Winter Solstice Storm of 2013
will impact as many as 75 million Americans between now and Sunday night. Good
luck.
Paul Douglas - Senior Meteorologist - Alerts Broadcaster
"Blizzard-Busting" Equipment To The Rescue.
Check out what they're doing in the Madison, Wisconsin area to make
vehicles more storm-worthy - pretty cool. Here's a clip from
madison.com: "
Dane
County trucks will be making tracks to stranded motorists or residents
this winter, thanks to new "blizzard-busting" equipment. The new
equipment, which is a track system attached to the tires of a standard
off-road pickup truck, was rolled out Friday by highway officials. "With
extreme winter weather becoming the norm, we are upgrading our
technology to help keep residents safe," said Dane County Executive Joe
Parisi in a prepared statement..."
Photo credit above: "
This
Dane County Parks Division off-road pickup has been had a track system
attached to its tires to help reach snowed-in destinations during winter
storms."
Move Over Wind? Solar Energy Market "Exploding" In Iowa. Midwest Energy News and
GreenTech Media has the story - here's an excerpt: "
Iowa
is well established as a national leader in wind energy and biofuels.
Now the state is poised for serious growth in solar as well. “The market
is exploding in Iowa,” says Tim Dwight, a former Iowa Hawkeye and NFL
star who has become one of his home state’s most visible solar energy
advocates. Homeowners, farmers, businesses and at least one school
district in Iowa are going solar. Also, over the past year, several
municipal utilities and rural electric co-ops have put up solar arrays,
inviting customers to buy a share of the power generated...."
How To Find Fulfilling Work. Do what you love and the money will come! Easier said than done. Maria Popova has an interesting perspective in
Brain Pickings; here's a clip: "
“If one wanted to crush and destroy a man entirely, to mete out to him the most terrible punishment,” wrote Dostoevsky,
“all one would have to do would be to make him do work that was
completely and utterly devoid of usefulness and meaning.” Indeed, the
quest to avoid work and make a living of doing what you love is a constant conundrum of modern life..."
Climate Stories...
Conservative Groups Spend Up To $1 Billion A Year To Fight Action On Climate Change.
The Guardian has the details; here's an excerpt: "
Conservative
groups may have spent up to $1bn a year on the effort to deny science
and oppose action on climate change, according to the first extensive study
into the anatomy of the anti-climate effort. The anti-climate effort
has been largely underwritten by conservative billionaires, often
working through secretive funding networks. They have displaced
corporations as the prime supporters of 91 think tanks, advocacy groups
and industry associations which have worked to block action on climate
change. Such financial support has hardened conservative opposition to
climate policy, ultimately dooming any chances of action from Congress
to cut greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet, the study
found..."
Photo credit above: "
A coal fired plant." Photograph: John Giles/AP.
Billion Dollar Climate Denial Network Exposed. More details from
Wired UK.
On Climate Change, Florida's Been Warned. One word comes to mind. Rent. Here's an excerpt of a story at the
Tampa Bay Times that caught my eye: "
In
just seven words, Jane Long summed up three days of intense discussion
last week about energy and climate at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. A senior scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund and a
retired Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researcher, she turned to
look at me after I told her I was from the Tampa Bay area. And without
hesitation, yet with a smile, she issued me an apocalyptic warning: "Oh,
you're going to be under water..."
The Not-Quite-Perfect Storm: Miami Dodged The Bullet Last Time, But Can Its Luck Hold Out?
Here's the first part of a series on cities most likely to be impacted
by climate change, and in this specific case, rising sea level. Miami is
at the top of the list, as reported by Grist - here's an excerpt: "...
More than 5.5 million people now live in metro Miami, and the seas have steadily risen. According to a report released in May
by the real estate data company CoreLogic, 132,000 homes in Miami,
worth $48 billion, are vulnerable to hurricane-driven storm-surge
damage. With a one-foot rise in sea level, those numbers jump to 340,000
homes and $94 billion. The World Bank ranks Miami as the most climate vulnerable city in the world.
Hurricane Andrew spurred a major overhaul of building codes in Florida
and other coastal areas, but no one doubts that a direct hit from a
category 5 storm could wreak massive havoc here. The last time a major hurricane hit Miami directly was in 1926. It’s only a matter of time, forecasters say, before the next one arrives...." (Image from 1992 Hurricane Andrew: NOAA).
In U.S. Winters Warming But Precipitation More Nuanced.
Theory is giving way to reality - 30 to 40 years ago scientists
speculated that warming would be greater at northern latitudes and
that's what the data is showing. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Climate Central: "...
Climate
change due to greenhouse gas emissions have in large part caused
temperatures to increase by 1.5°F since 1895 in the U.S. Much of that
increase has come since 1970, and different seasons are warming faster
than others. Winters, which begin in the meteorological sense on
December 1 and run through February, have warmed 0.61°F percade in the
contiguous U.S. from 1970-2012. That's faster than the rate of 0.435°F of warming per decade
experienced over the same period. Winter warming isn’t uniform, though.
California and Nevada have only warmed at a rate of 0.17°F per decade
over that time — the slowest winter warming region in the country — and
the Southeast has gone up just 0.29°F per decade..."
Graphic credit above:
"A map showing winter temperature trends in the U.S. from 1970-2012."
Santa Claus And Climate Change, A Letter To My Grandkids.
Peter Gleick from the Pacific Institute shares a letter he hopes not to
have to write in the year 2020. Here's an excerpt from
Huffington Post: "...
It's
not that you've been bad. Rather the world's governments (sometimes run
by bad boys and girls now grown up) have failed to address the
long-worsening problem of climate change. Santa is the latest climate
victim. As the last of the summer ice at the North Pole finally disappeared,
Santa's workshop sank to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean. When the
insurance companies cancelled most flood insurance policies, and Canada claimed the North Pole,
Santa lost everything and became the latest climate refugee. This
disaster has long been coming. Back in the early 2000s, Arctic sea ice
extent and volume started to drop rapidly -- even more rapidly than
scientists anticipated -- due to the rapid warming of the planet caused
by the burning of fossil fuels, especially coal..."
Graphic credit above: Arctic ice volume through 2013 from the
Polar Science Center
Climate Change Affecting Water Resources.
Voice of America has the story - here's the introduction: "
Scientists
say climate change will not affect all regions of the world equally –
especially when it comes to fresh water. The latest computer models
indicate some places will get a lot less, while others get a lot more.
Dr. Jacob Schewe and his colleagues say that “water scarcity is a major
threat for human development” if greenhouse gas emissions remain
unchecked. They’ve published their findings in a special issue of the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “The reason we’re
concerned is that it’s a very important issue for a lot of people. We
all depend on water for so many different purposes. And water scarcity,
where it exists, really impairs many things that people do and that
people live on,” he said..."
Photo credit above: Reuters. "
The sun is seen behind smoke billowing from a chimney of a heating plant in Taiyuan, Shanxi province December 9, 2013."
96% Of Network Nightly News' Coverage Of Extreme Weather Doesn't Mention Climate Change.
ThinkProgress has the details in a story - here's an excerpt: "...
But arguably the most visible and persistent climate event was the increase in ferocity of our weather. 2013 was marked by extremes in temperature and precipitation, conditions that fueled deadly wildfires, flooding, and storm surges.
Despite those facts, America’s major television news stations mostly
failed to mention climate change when reporting on events like deadly flooding in Colorado, the string of major wildfires across the American West, and bouts of unseasonable temperatures across the country. Those are the findings of a new survey released by Fairness and Accuracy In Reporting (FAIR), a progressive media criticism group..."
Photo credit: Shutterstock.
2013's Christmas Grinches - Stealing Christmas Warmth And Putting It Into The Atmosphere. Which companies and individuals get the Grinch Award. Check out the details at
ThinkProgress: "
Climate
change is the most pressing challenge of our time, yet meaningful
action to address this global threat seems increasingly elusive. What’s
standing in the way? There are numerous individuals, organizations, and
corporations that actively work to obstruct attempts to cut our carbon
emissions, advance clean energy, and prepare communities for the
devastating impacts of climate change. Here is a list of just a few of
these thwarters who stood out in 2013...."
John Podesta's Plan To Bypass Congress On Climate Change.
The Washington Post has the story - here's a clip: "
President
Obama's newest adviser, John Podesta, will reportedly push the White
House to focus more heavily on climate change in the coming year.
Podesta is coming from the Center for American Progress, a liberal think
tank that put a heavy focus on climate policy. That's according to my colleague Greg Sargent, who cites a Politico report
on Podesta's new role: "With chances of major legislation on climate
change all but dead given congressional opposition, Podesta will push
for aggressive executive action, in addition to backstopping new
Environmental Protection Agency chief Gina McCarthy on controversial new
emissions guidelines for power plants..." (Image above: NASA).
