Tuesday, October 30, 2012

AM Wednesday Update: October 31st, 2012

Life Cycle of Sandy
This is worth a look... this satellite loop shows the life cycle of Sandy



Size of Sandy – IMMENSE!
Take a look at these screen captures that we made at the office on Tuesday. We tried to put into perspective the overall immensity of the storm as it sat on the eastern half of the country on Tuesday.

Satellite of Sandy on Tuesday
WOW… what a storm, eh? This reminds me a lot of the satellite picture of the storm in the movie “Day After Tomorrow”. We don’t have the satellite data of the northern side of the storm here, but let’s just say that the cloud shield from the Superstorm stretched from the Hudson Bay to the Gulf Coast States. The comparison to that is in the following images below.


Size Marker #1


Size Marker #2


Size Marker #3
In this image, we can really see how large this system really is. That’s approximately the distance from just north of International Falls, MN to just north of Brownsville, TX… A quick Google mapping driving distance to those places showed an approximate distance of 1,800 miles.


Superstorm Sandy’s Significant Impacts
Here are just a few of the major headlines that we were able to pick up… there are many more and likely many to come.

*The Landfall occurred near Atlantic City, NJ aroun 8pm Monday with 80mph. This was the worst case scenario for New York as it was on the “Right Front Quadrant” of the storm. This allowed hurricane for winds to pile up water in those areas. The storm surge growing to over 10ft. in many locations, worse than previously thought.

*The central pressure of the storm was that of 944mb as it made landfall, which makes it the strongest storm of an Atlantic Basin storm north of Cape Hatteras, NC! The information below was from our very own Bryan Karrick.

The Great Hurricane of Sept. 1938, also known as the “Long Island Express,” had the lowest pressure of an Atlantic Basin storm north of Cape Hatteras, NC at 946 mb. Hurricane Sandy broke a record Monday, the central pressure dropped to 940 mb! She made landfall with a pressure at 944mb, with a tropical storm wind field close to 1000 miles across. As our own Addison Green says, “It’s like flying from NYC to Tampa, FL!”
*There was a record crest at the Battery in New York. Water levels rose to 13.88ft. overnight, which broke the previous record of 11.2ft. set in 1821.
*The estimates of power outages in the graphic below were from earlier Tuesday. That number will certainly fluctuate significantly over time… There were reports by midday Tuesday of nearly 7 million without power.


Other Significant Impacts
Massive flooding has over taken parts of the city, especially in Lower Manhattan around Ground Zero. There were also reports of subway stations filling up with water!
(Photo Courtesy: New Jersey PATH Subway System)


(Photo Below Courtesy: National Hurricane Updates)
New York AP photo, tons of yellow taxis submerged in Hoboken


Photo of the Plaza Shops in NYC


Flooding in Linden, NJ


Massive Power Outages
Take a look at this video out of New York City. That’s an explosion at a Con Ed plant! Con Edison is the power company out there.



Power Failure Map
This is a interesting map (check the loop here) – it shows the number of power failures throughout the evening.

More than six million customers lost power Monday as Hurricane Sandy felled trees, downed power lines and flooded substations. The storm led to power failures in at least 17 states, including more than a million customers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey and about 660,000 in New York City. Roughly a quarter million customers lost power in Manhattan alone after a fiery explosion at a substation on East 14th Street, leaving nearly the entire island eerily dark south of 34th Street. Con Edison officials called the power failures “the largest storm related outage in our history.” Officials said they expected to be able to restore electricity to much of Manhattan before the night was over but that it could be a week before all service was restored.”


New York Faces Big Problems!
Here are two quotes that really put into perspective the size and magnitude of the situation.


Line for Pay Phone?
Thanks to my good friend Peter Brooks out in New York for this picture. He snapped this picture of folks waiting in line for a PAY PHONE! He says, "when was the last time you've ever seen that?"



The AP summarized some of the major impacts from Sandy:

CAROLINAS
The U.S. Coast Guard rescued 14 members of a crew forced to abandon a tall ship off the North Carolina coast, but two other crew members were still missing. The HMS Bounty was originally built for the 1962 film “Mutiny on the Bounty” starring Marlon Brando and has been featured in other films, including one of the “Pirates of the Caribbean” movies.

CONNECTICUT
The University of Connecticut is closing Tuesday, joining a hundreds of other schools and school systems across the state. The closure includes UConn’s law school and the UConn Health Center, though the John Dempsey Hospital will remain open during the storm. Power outages: 117,400.

DELAWARE
Dover Air Force Base has relocated some aircraft in anticipation of the storm, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency has requested that the base be used as a staging area for support and supplies. Some residents of low-lying areas of the base have been ordered to evacuate. Power outages: 1,800.

ILLINOIS
The powerful storm is expected to extend as far as Chicago, where the National Weather Service already has issued high wind warnings and a lakeshore flood warning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Water may pile up on the south shore of Lake Michigan, said Louis Uccellini, director of environmental prediction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

KENTUCKY
Sandy is expected to bring snow to far southeastern Kentucky. A winter storm warning is in effect in Harlan, Letcher and Pike counties through Wednesday morning. Forecasters say snow could accumulate from 4 to 10 inches in high elevations and 1 to 3 inches in lower elevations.

MAINE
Virtually all Maine public schools opened Monday but some were closing early before the heaviest rain and wind from Hurricane Sandy. State officials say the biggest concern is wind, which is expected to cause widespread power outages. The state’s utilities say they have crews poised to deal with expected power outages, including some from Canada. Power outages: 26,000.

MARYLAND
Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake says vehicular travel is banned on city roads beginning at 6 p.m. Monday. The restrictions to do not apply to uniformed personnel, hospital employees or other medical providers. Gov. Martin O’Malley earlier Monday closed the Bay Bridge.

MASSACHUSETTS
Voluntary evacuation recommendations have been issued in Scituate, Lynn, New Bedford and Plum Island. The recommendations are for just certain sections of the communities that could be affected by flooding as a result of Hurricane Sandy. A Red Cross spokeswoman said just a few people stayed at its shelters Sunday night, but she expects more people Monday night and into Tuesday. Power outages: 222,000.

MICHIGAN
Michigan utilities say high winds could cause power outages in the state and they’re keeping an eye on the weather to respond to power problems. DTE Energy Co. said gusts of 50 mph Monday evening and Tuesday could affect some it its 2.1 million customers.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Gov. John Lynch has urged all drivers to be off the roads by 3 p.m. as Hurricane Sandy approaches. Lynch declared a state of emergency and directed that non-essential state workers be released from work Monday afternoon. He urged employers to consider releasing workers early. The governor has put 100 New Hampshire Guard soldiers on active duty. Power outages: 99,000.

NEW JERSEY
All roads into and out of Ocean City are closed due to flooding that has cut off the popular Jersey shore resort community. Hurricane Sandy already had flooded most of Atlantic City, sweeping away an old section of the city’s famed boardwalk. Power outages: 434,000.

NEW YORK
A construction crane atop a luxury high-rise collapsed in high winds Monday and dangled precariously midtown Manhattan. Some buildings were being evacuated as a precaution and the streets below were cleared, but there were no immediate reports of injuries. Power outages: 451,967.

OHIO
Residents of low-lying areas and along Lake Erie were told to watch for flooding; utilities are anticipating high winds that could blow down trees and poles. Snow is forecast in some areas.

PENNSYLVANIA
Officials from the state transit agency and the Pennsylvania Turnpike have instituted speed restrictions over concerns about high winds and ordered certain vehicles, including empty trucks and motorcycles, off some highways. The National Weather Service says southeastern Pennsylvania could get winds reaching 75 mph and rainfall up to 10 inches. Power outages: 74,000.

RHODE ISLAND
Officials are concerned about wind driving water north up Narragansett Bay, which could create flooding in low-lying areas of the upper bay, including Providence, Warwick and Cranston. About 2,600 National Grid customers were without power, mostly in Barrington and other parts of Bristol County. Power outages: 80,000.

TENNESSEE
Snow is expected in higher elevations, where a freeze warning has been issued. High winds are expected in many areas.

VERMONT
Gov. Peter Shumlin declared a state of emergency to provide access to National Guard troops in a state still recovering from the devastating effects of the remnants of Hurricane Irene. Culverts and storm drainage basins in some spots have been cleared of debris. Power outages: 13,170.

Early Estimated Losses From Sandy…
Some of the early estimates suggests that the estimated losses from the storm (this number is frightening) could total $45 BILLION dollars!



Late Night in New York
I thought this was interesting… Jimmy Fallon, late night talk show host sent his audience home before the show started/the storm hit and for good reason. However, Jimmy still did the show! 



Major Wind Gusts
Take a look a few of the higher wind gusts reported across the area yesterday. The highest on the list compiled by the NWS was a 94mph report Eatons Neck, NY. There was another notable report from the Islip Airport at 90mph


Mount Washington Observatory
There were even stronger wind gust reports coming from Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire (elevation 6,288ft.). There were several gusts over 100mph, but the strongest report was 140mph!


The official wind chart for October 29, 2012 – peak gust of 140 mph (139.7 mph to be specific)! This is the 24 hour Hays (wind speed recording device) chart with average wind direction and speeds recorded around the edge of the chart. Midnight is at the top then it goes hourly counterclockwise. The peak is marked by the triangle. Time, speed in KTS, and gust direction are in the center. FYI – this is the strongest recorded gust since March 21, 2008 when 145 mph was measured. Additional Max, Min, Avg weather data for yesterday (and all of October) can be viewed here: http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2012/10.pdf”


Massive Snows in the Appalachians!
Thanks to Beau Dodson for this picture out of Davis, WV! That’s insane and one massive dumping of snow in the Appalachians. The snow will be measured in feet!


“There is a car under the snow – this is a side street. This is about 2 blocks east of the main street here in Davis, West Virginia – the downtown street.”


I could honestly keep going with information… there is SO much! Thanks for checking in on this Tuesday, have a great rest of your week. We’ll have more tomorrow!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

October 30th

Summary: The (super) storm we’ve been tracking and warning of for nearly a week is now approaching. Final contingency plans should be rushed to completion. The height of the storm comes tonight, but the first (major) storm surge arrives late morning and midday, starting with the New Jersey coastline. The storm is tracking (very) slight farther south of New York City than models were suggesting yesterday, but our team still expects a major storm surge for Long Island Sound, inundating low-lying areas of Brooklyn and Queens (including some of the runways at JFK and LGA). Lower Manhattan will see substantial flooding at high tide, later this morning, again late evening. Inland rains will create flash flooding capable of shutting down even major highways, but rainfall amounts won’t be quite as severe from New York to Boston. It’s hunker-down time, venturing outside to drive (or shoot video/photos) a fairly bad idea from D.C. to Boston today.
Some level of property damage in high impact areas is inevitable – right now the priority is lowering the risk to staff in the path of Sandy. If team members living within 10 feet of water can’t evacuate inland, or to higher ground, the next best option is a vertical evacuation, riding out the storm in a 3rd or 4th floor building.
Worst Case Scenario Unfolding
If you recall last week, we were talking about the worst case scenario that would unfold if this storm were to make a landfall in the Northeast, more specifically just south of Long Island. As Sandy started to interact and merge with the cold air mass over the Northeast, it intensified even further than previously thought! The 11am update from the National Hurricane center actually had the central pressure of the storm at 943mb (sustained winds of 90mph with higher gusts)… to put that into perspective, the central pressure of “The Perfect Storm” back in 1991 was that of a 972mb low, which actually stayed offshore!
Sandy: Record Setting Superstorm?
Thanks to WeatherNation Meteorologist Todd Nelson for the info below:
The Great Hurricane of Sept. 1938, also known as the “Long Island Express,” had the lowest pressure of an Atlantic Basin storm north of Cape Hatteras, NC at 946 mb. Hurricane Sandy broke that record this morning, dropping to 943 mb! She is forecast to make landfall with a pressure between 944-952 mb, with a tropical storm wind field close to 1000 miles across. As our own Addison Green says, “It’s like flying from NYC to Tampa, FL!”
Other Historical Low Pressure Records
This may also help to put into perspective how strong this storm may be. Note that the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin was that of Wilma at 882mb in Oct. 2005.
Sandy Landfall PM Monday
The 11AM Monday update from the National Hurricane Center had the storm as a CATEGORY 1 storm just prior to landfall.
RPM Model of Winds at Landfall
I thought this was an incredible map! Take a look at the significant wind field that showed up on previous model runs as Sandy was running ashore. The blue coloring over southern New Jersey would indicate the calm nature of the winds near the “Eye”. Note also the easterly fetch to the winds on the northerly side of the eye, this would indicate a worse case scenario for New York , Long Island and surrounding areas in terms of wind and storm surge.
An Eerie Sight in NYC
How about this… kind of an eerie sight out of NYC as the subways system was shut down on Monday! Thanks to TVNweather.com for the images below.
NYSE Closes for First Time in 11 Years
Here’s another crazy sight from the NYSE, which was closed today for the first time in 11 years!
U.S. stock markets are closed as Hurricane Sandy nears landfall on the East Coast and are likely to remain closed Tuesday. The last time the New York Stock Exchange had an unplanned closing since the terrorist attacks of September 2001. (Oct. 29)”
Expected Power Outages… in the Millions?
An 18th Century Tuesday For Millions of Americans? An engineer at John Hopkins University has predicted power outages, based on Sandy’s characteristics and track. Here is an excerpt of his study: “Using a computer model based on a current forecast as well as data from past hurricanes, an engineer at The Johns Hopkins University predicts that 3 million people in New Jersey will lose power during Hurricane Sandy. Pennsylvania will follow closely behind with 2.5 to 3 million people predicted to lose power, and Maryland with 1.8 million people predicted to lose power. Washington, D.C., and Delaware will have fewer outages, with 200,000 and 400,000 people predicted to lose power, respectively.”
Significant Travel Headaches
WOW! Sandy is having a major impact on air travel across the country and flights inbound and outbound have been cancelled at most of the major hubs out east. According to FlightAware.com there have been more than 12,000 flights cancelled likely due to Sandy.
Significant & Record Setting Rainfall… More to Come
I can’t get over the magnitude of this situation. From heavy winds, storm surge and significant beach erosion to coastal and inland flooding to heavy snows in the Appalachians. It really is hard to keep up with everything that is going on, again due to the magnitude of the situation. That’s why it is so important to follow your local government agencies when it comes to warnings and advisories regarding the weather and or potential emergencies/evacuations. One of the concerns (flooding) has already taken place in many locations along the Eastern Seaboard with more to come. The image below shows the rainfall associated with Sandy since yesterday.
Additional/EXTREME Rainfall
Take a look at NOAA’s HPC 3 day precipitation forecast over the Northeast. Some locations could pick up an additional 6″ to 7″ of precipitation or more, which is cause for concern in terms of significant inland flooding. It’s also interesting to note that some of this extreme precipitation will be falling in the form of snow across the higher elevations of the Appalachians.
Active Flood Headlines
These are all of the active flood headlines across the area as Sandy spreads moisture inland through the next few days. Check your local NWS forecast office for a more specific update on localized hazards due to the extreme rainfall expected.
Active Winter Weather Headlines
These are the winter weather headlines that the National Weather Service has issued for the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Significant snow and high winds could create blizzard like conditions for areas shaded in red.
Snow Forecast
Latest forecasts for snow looks extreme by all measures! There will be 1ft. to 2ft. amounts, but I won’t be surprised to hear reports of 3ft. or more!
Thanks for checking in on this Monday, have a great rest of your week!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV

Sunday, October 28, 2012

An Historic Sandy Batters East Coast

Monday, October 29th, 2012

Well, here we go... Folks in the Northeast are gearing up for what could be an historic storm. Massive wind, power outages, rain, storm surge, beach erosion, flooding and snow are all going to be big issues with this system over the next few days. Weather conditions will continued to deteriorate rapidly on Monday as Sandy nears the East Coast, likely to make landfall at some point late in the day. 



Sandy Wobbles Toward the Jersey Shore
The official National Hurricane Center forecast for Sandy suggests that the landfall of this massive system will be sometime Monday evening/early Tuesday morning. Don't be fooled by the track of the storm, thinking that if you aren't in the direct path, it won't be as bad... the effects will be extensive and far reaching! Here is the discussion from NOAA's HPC:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


President Obama: "This is a Serious and Big Storm"


An Historic Sandy vs. "The Perfect Storm" of 1991
In some ways, Sandy will be much like "The Perfect Storm" of 1991, when the remnants of Hurricane Grace interacted with a cold front that moved through the Northeast. As tropical system (strengthened by the warm ocean waters) merged with the cold front, it became more of an typical Mid-Latitude Cyclone (strenghtened by the large temperature difference across the front). Interestingly, the center of the storm (minimum central pressure of 972mb) stayed off shore and caused massive damage (estimated to over 200 million dollars with 13 dead). This storm (hybrid Sandy) is expected to MAKE landfall; some models forecasting the central pressure down near 950mb, much lower than that of 1991. The image below is from "The Perfect Storm" in 1991 when it made its closest pass to the U.S.


 Weather Setup in 1991
The weather setup in 1991 was very similar to that now, but the upper level maps from back then (impressive in their own right) reveal something that wasn't as impressive as what we're seeing now! The image below is the 500mb chart from October 30th, 1991. It shows the low off the Northeast coastline (remnants of Hurricane Grace), which had already been interacting with a cold air mass that had moved into the Noreast, but the upper level trough of low pressure (upside down "U" in the western half of the country) was still out west. In between these two areas of low pressure, a weak bubble of high pressure allowed the remnants of Grace to stay just offshore.

 
Surface Map on October 30th, 1991
 
The remnants of Hurricane Grace allowed the upper level trough of low pressure to slow down, creating a massive low to develop in the middle part of the nation. This area of low pressure also slowed down and created the "Halloween Blizzard of 1991" to develop, which dumped nearly 30" of snow in some spots throughout northern Minnesota!
 
 
 
Surface Map on November 1st, 1991
 
This was the day after Halloween, when the "Halloween Blizzard" was really blasting Minnesota... Record snowtotals from that event (in several locations) have never been touched since!
 
 
 
Record Snow Totals Around the Twin Cities in 1991
 
"Across much of eastern Minnesota, trick-or-treaters donned snowmobile suits as snow began to fall during the afternoon of October 31, 1991. This marked the beginning of a major winter storm that pounded the eastern half of Minnesota over a three day period. The storm dropped 28.4 inches of snow on the Twin Cities, setting a single storm record for the metropolitan area. Duluth received 36.9 inches, the largest single storm total in Minnesota history."
 
 
(Photo Courtesy: Bob King News-Tribune)
 
 
 
Weather Setup Nearly 21 Years Ago to the Day!
Let's take a look at the upper level map (500mb) from Sunday, October 29th, 2012. Note the difference this time around as that upper level trough of low pressure is in the eastern half of the United States. Not only is this bringing a fresh batch of cold air with it to help deepen the storm, but the trough of low pressure is also helping to suck the storm back inland towards the Northeast. As the trough of low pressure swallows the remnants of Sandy into the Northeast, the merging of these two systems as well as the strong temperature difference is going to help make this storm even more perfect than "The Perfect Storm" of 1991!

500mb AM Monday
The 500mb vorticity map by AM Monday shows the upper level trough and the remants of Sandy starting to merge.



AM Tuesday - Full Merge
This is the 500mb voticity map by AM Tuesday, which shows that the upper level trough of low pressure and the remnants of Sandy have merged completely. This will result in one of the largest upper level low pressure systems I've ever seen over the Northeast. Look at the lines of equal air pressure (isobars) and note how widespread it is. The result here will be an EXTENSIVE wind field surrounding the very impressive hybrid low pressure system.


ECMWF (European) Model
This has been the most consistent model thus far... beating every other model to the punch last weekend with the scope and magnitute of the potential storm and yet again, it is consistent! Nearly spot on with its last several runs over the course of the week, it brings a near 950mb central pressure storm into the Northeast by Monday evening.



 947mb Low Forecast by the GFS
At the surface, the area of low pressure will be even stronger! The GFS is forecasting a 947mb central pressure just prior to making landfall Monday evening. The lines of equal air pressure (isobars) are even more tightly packed, which will result in significant winds, likely for days, but tapering a bit by the middle and end of the week.
Here was an Interesting quote from the Baltimore, MD/Washington D.C. NWS discussion:
"I cannot recall ever seeing model forecasts of such an expansive areal wind field with values so high for so long a time. We are breaking new ground here."

Significant Waves, Surf and Beach Erosion
One of the biggest concerns about this system is going to be the serious lashing across the coastal communities. Waves heights will be extreme, the storm surge will also be aided by the near full moon and high tide, which ultimately will have a dramatic impact of beach erosion along the beaches of the Eastern Seaboard.
Watch the waves from North Carolina thanks to Storm Chaser:


Impacts from Sandy (listed in rough order of priority, in terms of damage potential and number of people/companies impacted):
1). Storm surge: we expect the worst storm surge flooding out ahead of Sandy to take place late morning, again late evening on Monday, coinciding with high tide (and a full moon Monday PM hours). Tides are already 2-3 feet higher than average due to astronomical conditions – Sandy’s sustained winds and low pressure (28.25”) will create a dome of water that will be pushed ashore in two major surges: 9 am – noon, again 9 pm – midnight Monday.
2). Winds: sustained winds of 50-75 mph are likely in a 300 mile swath Monday and Monday night, the strongest winds over southern New England and Long Island Monday PM hours, with gusts over 90 mph at times. There will be wind damage, downed trees and power lines – I expect a rash of power outages. Companies with well-maintained generators will be glad they made that investment by midday Monday.
3). Inland flooding. One bit of (better) news: the rainfall amounts from Sandy don’t look quite as extreme as they did 2-3 days ago. Some 4-8” amounts are still likely from the Delmarva Peninsula to coastal New Jersey, but New York, Long Island and most of southern New England will probably receive less than 3-5” of rain – still capable of flash flooding, but not the (historic) rainfall amounts we feared last week. One complicating factor: leaves. The timing is problematic, with leaves on the ground, leaves that will be swept into storm sewers, exacerbating the flood risk and accelerate the backing up of water in many residential and commercial areas. 
Maximum Storm Surge for New Jersey. According to NOAA “Slosh” models a 5-6 foot surge is most likely to occur during the early morning hours Monday, close to 7-9 am, coinciding with high tide. 
Dangerous Storm Surge #1. NOAA surge models suggest a 9 foot storm surge (above normal sea level) during the late morning hours Monday over far western Long Island Sound, capable of pushing very significant water in Queens and Brooklyn. 
Dangerous Storm Surge #2. A second, even higher surge is forecast for the late evening hours Monday, as the center of Sandy comes ashore over central New Jersey – sustained 60-80 mph winds whipping up a dome of water as much as 10 feet above normal sea level over eastern Long Island, with an 8-9 foot surge for Greenwich, Stamford and Westport.

SLOSH Models... Storm Surge
The National Weather Service has a nice product that suggests the storm surge expected near New York, Long Island and the Jersey Coastline. If this were to verify, these areas could easily see an 8ft. to 10ft.+ storm surge as this storm approaches!



Point Forecast SLOSH Model
Look at the point data forecast for The Battery, NY... it is suggesting a near 11ft. storm surge by Monday evening.



Surging Seas...
The image below suggests all the places the potentially could be impacted by flood water if the storm surge would climb to 10ft.



NYC Gearing Up for Superstorm
Thanks to my good friend Peter Brooks for this picture out of NYC. Peter said that businesses were already closing on Sunday ahead of the powerful storm. Look at this massive line outside a Trader Joe's, hoping to get supplies before the big storm hits.

Superstorm Causes Thousands of Flight Cancelations...
I sure hope you didn't have any big travel plans out east this week. According to The Washington Post, there have been thousands of flights cancelled with more possibly to come:
Read More HERE:
"NEW YORK — Airlines canceled more than 5,000 flights mostly as a result of Hurricane Sandy, with hubs along the East Coast bearing the brunt of the disruptions.
According to the flight-tracking service FlightAware, 1,100 Sunday flights have been canceled as of Sunday afternoon, with more than 265 cancellations at Newark Airport, a hub of United Airlines
For Monday, nearly 4,000 flights were canceled, with 857 cancellations at Newark, followed by 632 at New York’s Kennedy Airport and more than 500 cancellations at both New York’s LaGuardia and Philadelphia International.
FlightAware said it expects the number of flight cancellations for Monday and Tuesday to “rise considerably.”"

Significant Rainfall/Flooding
This storm has the potential to dump copious amounts moisture in the Northeast, likely to cause inland flooding in spots. Some of this moisture will even fall in the form of very heavy snowfall, likely to cause widespread power outages across parts of the Appalachians.

Significant Snowfall
The models have been consistently printing out a staggering amount of snow across the higher elevations of the Appalachians through the middle part of the week! In some cases, there could be 3ft.+. This will be a very wet, heavy snow, so there will likely be downed trees and power lines, which will cause power outages.



Meteogram Output From Elkins, WV
I can honestly say that I've never seen this before from this meteogram. Look at the projected snowfall accumulation from Elkins, West Virginia. Some of the models are suggesting over 40" of snow!


Winter Weather Headlines Posted
These are all of the winter weather headlines that have been posted for parts of the Appalachians and surrounding areas.
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY.
* LOCATIONS...BEST CHANCES ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 2000
FEET...TO 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE 3000 FEET.
* WINDS...INCREASING ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. SOME
OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES COULD GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH.
* VISIBILITIES...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
HIGH TERRAIN...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY
STRUGGLE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. BEST CHANCES FOR CHANGING TO
SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...
CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. SNOW LOADING...OR THE
WEIGHT OF THE SNOW...MAY CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...INCLUDING
COLLAPSING ROOFS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY.


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