Rare October Severe Outbreak? Many locations do see a (small) second severe weather maxima in September and October, as colder Canadian air pushes south, setting up the strong temperature contrasts (and wind shear environment aloft) to support isolated severe storms. The Southern Plains may see severe weather later today, spreading into Iowa and southern Wisconsin by Saturday. With the storm tracking well south/east of MSP right now I do not expect severe weather across Minnesota. Maps above: NOAA SPC.
Fire Weather Watch posted for the western third of Minnesota today. Photo: Minnesota DNR.
.05" latest prediction for Saturday rainfall in the Twin Cities (00z NAM model).
1" of snow so far in Duluth, about 1/2" above average. Source: Timothy Burr.
Fire Weather Watch. Here's another symptom of how dry it is out there - another Fire Weather Watch posted for much of western Minnesota again today. Details from the Twin Cities NWS:
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS... .DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO NEW ULM...TO FAIRMONT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ON FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD ALSO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* photo above courtesy of Renee Schneider.
“An attitude of gratitude flavors everything you do. Learning to be thankful is the golden thread woven through every truly successful life” wrote Charlie Jones.
Every day I give thanks for living in a clean, progressive state, where people still care about their work, and their neighbors. No earthquakes, volcanoes or storms with names either. That makes our blustery clippers easier to stomach.
That old adage, "when in a drought, don't predict rain" rings true. We all got our hopes up for a real rain event Saturday, but latest models whisk the heaviest, steadiest rains south and east of Minnesota. Par for the course. We may still pick up a little rain, but right now it doesn't look like the long, cool soaking we need. As long as dry, westerly winds dominate our weather pattern wet, moisture-lade Gulf storms will continue to take a southerly detour.
The latest Drought Monitor shows 99 percent of Minnesota in moderate drought, 47 percent in a severe drought. Let it rain. Please.
We're in a manic, confusing pattern. The simple act of getting dressed every morning has become a bit baffling. A freeze this morning gives way to 2 days of 60s early next week.
Hints of Indian Summer.
Climate-Proofing The Insurance Industry. Forbes has the story - here's an excerpt: "The world’s largest reinsurer has examined the recent rise in the number and severity of natural disasters worldwide, and finds the trend bears the unmistakable fingerprints of climate change. What’s more, America is bearing the brunt of that change. “North America is the continent with the largest increases in disasters,” Munich Re’s Peter Hoppe told USA Today yesterday. Take a look at the map of the most costly extreme weather events in 2011 and so far in 2012 for a snapshot that begins to show what he’s talking about..."
* map above from ceres.org.
- Will motivate ‘the base’ to go out and vote.
- Speaks strongly to and sways ‘independents’ who resemble Democratic voters, much more than Republicans, when it comes to climate-change issues.
- Is irrelevant for the climate-deniers, who are already impassioned to vote for fossil-foolish politicians."
Citation: Overland, J. E., J.A. Francis, E. Hanna, and M. Wang (2012). "The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation."