So close...and yet so far:
Photo credit above: "Eden Valley farmer Tom Haag emptied corn into a holding wagon used to shuttle the grain to a nearby semi-trailer for transport back to the farmstead and a storage container." Jim Gehrz, Star Tribune.
Photo credit above: "In this photo taken Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012, farmer Bob Schaefers walks from the exit of a trail through his corn maze near Lollie, Ark. Devastating spring freezes and this year's historic drought have taken some of the charm out of rustic fall destinations, leaving some corn mazes too short for labyrinth duty, orchards virtually devoid of U-pick apples and fall colors muted." (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)
Photo credit above: "Flames roar down the hill toward Paschal Sherman Indian School shortly after 51 live-in students were evacuated from the campus six miles from Omak, Wash., on Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012." (AP Photo/The Omak-Okanogan County Chronicle, Cary Rosenbaum)
* Photo above: Mike Hall.
You should see my office. It's the one with little dents in the sheet rock - from me banging my big fat head against the wall.
I feel cheated, meteorologically violated.
Here, let me blame the computer models.
The future is never black or white. It's always some nebulous shade of gray. Our confidence goes up when a). all the models agree, and b). there is continuity from run to run. Such was the case earlier this week - but the latest solutions show the heaviest rain bands (and severe storms) from Iowa into Wisconsin, brushing southeast Minnesota. We may see a lonely shower, but not the soaking we had hoped for.
One silver lining: you can stash the heavy jackets - for now. This soggy southern storm pulls mild air north; highs top 60 today & Sunday, 70s are likely Monday.
Then it gets interesting. A soggy cold front Wednesday "cuts off", stalls over the Great Lakes, sending a swirl of rain, possibly mixed with wet snow, into Minnesota by next Friday. Slushy lawns in a week? I wouldn't be shocked. In fact very little surprises me these days.
Long-range models bring more 60s into town the last week of October. Wait, these are the same models that said it would rain today.
Hottest Year So Far In Philadelphia. And a large chunk of the USA, for that matter. Here's an excerpt from a story at philly.com: "2012 is on pace to be the warmest on record in more than 100 U.S. towns and cities, including Philadelphia, and for the continental United States as a whole, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Philadelphia has certainly seen some extremes in recent years. 2011 was Philadelphia's wettest year on record, with precipitation equalling 64.33 inches of water. The winter of 2009-10 had the most snow ever, 78.7 inches. For the first nine months of 2012, Philadelphia's average temperature was 62.2 degrees, 3.5 degrees above the average during the two decades from 1981 to 2010. The city's record covers the last 65 years..."
Graphic credit above: "The continental U.S. had its hottest average temperature in 118 years, according to federal researchers. Five of eight regions also set records (in red), while three others had their second or third highest average temperatures. The Pacific Northwest was also "above normal."
Yale Poll: Large And Growing Majority Of Americans Say "Global Warming Is Affecting Weather In The United States." Here's a snippet from a story at Think Progress: "Yet another survey finds that the public accurately understands global warming makes extreme weather events worse. This new poll from George Mason University and Yale’s Project on Climate Change Communication matches the finding of a February Brookings poll that found Americans’ understanding of climate change was increasing with more extreme weather and warmer temperatures. Heck, the weather has been so off the charts that even the major media have taken notice (see Every Network Gets Extreme Weather Story Right, ‘Now’s The Time We Start Limiting Manmade Greenhouse Gases’ — ABC). And the public’s understanding certainly matches the science (see “Has Global Warming Caused A Quantum Jump In Extreme Weather?” and links below)."
Image credit above: "A new pan-European study suggests that the economic value of forests will decline between 14% and 50% due to climate change. If measures are not taken to change this, the damage could reach several hundred billion euros, say researchers led by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) in Switzerland. The study was presented in the journal Nature Climate Change."