An Old Fashioned Soaking? The latest NAM predicts more than 1" for the Twin Cities, but I suspect amounts may go higher than that, as much as 2" for some communities. The best chance of heavy rain: Saturday night into early Sunday.
Cooling Trend. The good news: no more frost in sight looking out 2 weeks, at least not for the metro area. After peaking above 70 today readings drop over the weekend: low to mid 60s for highs Sunday, maybe some 50s up north. Readings early next week will run 5-10 degrees cooler than average for mid-May before recovering to near 70 the latter half of next week.
European Solution: Sunday Soaking. The ECMWF model prints out a few isolated showers and T-showers today, more numerous showers (late) Saturday, with Sunday the wettest day in sight. After a cool Tuesday temperatures recover the latter half of next week.
"Here in the United States, 82 percent of Americans say that they've experienced a natural disaster or extreme weather event first-hand." - from a Huffington Post article on climate change and extreme weather below.
La Nina Comes To A Close. Maybe now our weather will become "normal" again? Don't bet on it. Details from NASA's Earth Observatory: "After cooling the eastern tropical Pacific for the second winter in a row—and teaming with other large-scale weather patterns to wreak havoc on North American winter—La Niña ended in April 2012. Researchers from the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Weather Service reported on May 3 that the Pacific has transitioned to “neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through northern summer 2012.” La Niña and El Niño are alternating patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation that have a distinct impact on weather around the Pacific basin. La Niña brings cooler waters and stronger trade winds to the tropical Pacific, boosting precipitation in western Pacific nations like Australia and Indonesia and drying out southern North America. The pattern can alter the path of the jet stream and other atmospheric phenomena."
Storms In The Gulf Feed Off Warm Gulf Loop Current. Gulf of Mexico water temperatures have been running at least 2 F. warmer than average since February - some meteorologists theorize this may be a factor in the unusually violent (and early) tornadoes across the USA. More from NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory: "The Loop Current, as seen in NOAA's Daily 5 km resolution sea surface temperature product, is providing fuel for convection today west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. The NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory's Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map of the Gulf of Mexico shows."
Image of the "Perpetual Ocean" above courtesy of NASA Goddard's Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.
"My daughter and her family live in a hollow, of sorts, on the Mississippi south of Little Falls. They cannot get a signal for their weather radio. While they will attempt to add an external antenna, I scanned through articles on weather apps for iPhones (which they have). It is not clear to me whether they will wake you up at night with an alarm. I recall you writing about this very recently as I read your blog every day. What is their best bet in the event the external antenna does not work?"
* Full disclosure: I don't have any equity/business interest in either company, and no, I don't get a commission for recommending these apps. I just think they're two of the best alerting apps out there on the IOS market today.
Screen Shot From iMapWeather Radio, showing how you can save different locations and set different alerts for each town.
"Storm just ripped through our area of Eagan. We live in a wooded area and behind our house we have at least 10 trees knocked down, including one large oak tree. Is that common to have just an isolated area have trees knocked down in a storm like this? Probably in a 150x200 foot area..."
Tim- it sounds like you may have experienced a rare microburst, a severe thunderstorm downdraft that reached the ground, fanning out into damaging straight-line winds that may have exceeded 60-70 mph. Hard to say; the line that rumbled across the metro Thursday morning became more severe as it pushed into the eastern suburbs. My hunch: microburst. Link and image above courtesy of Wikipedia.
7th Annual SAVE Fashion Show
Friday, June 1, 2012
6:30pm to 10pm
687 Excelsior Boulevard, Excelsior, MN
General Admission Tickets $40 ($50 at the door)
VIP Seating $100 (will not be available at the door)
VIP Tables of 8 $1,500 (limited tables available)
The 7th Annual SAVE Fashion Show will be held at the beautiful BayView Event Center on Lake Minnetonka in Excelsior and includes fabulous fashions, great food by Wally's Roast Beef and a fantastic silent and live auction.
This years 60's & 70's fashions will be modeled by ICON's Management models and Mark Steine of E SALON and his team of models along with local celebrities. All models will be wearing specially designed clothing by Christopher Straub, Samantha Rei Crossland and others. This will be an amazing show that you don't want to miss!!
"I have found the paradox that if I love until it hurts, then there is no more hurt, but only more love." - Mother Teresa.
Wouldn't it be great if we could time rainy soakings for weekdays, late at night, well away from your commute times? We're working on that technology. Sadly, it'll be a company composed entirely of lawyers. Once you start tinkering with the weather the liability implications are staggering. What if you "seed" clouds and a flood breaks out 100 miles downwind? Not good.
Storms, given a choice, PREFER to come on weekends; Murphy's little-known Second Law. 3 soggy Saturdays in a row? Uh huh.
The volatile warm front that sparked several waves of severe, hail-producing storms sags just south of the MSP metro; today 10 degrees cooler with a few T-showers. A storm rippling along a stagnant east-west frontal boundary throws a shield of heavier, steadier rain into Minnesota late Saturday into Sunday. Some 1-3" rainfall amounts are possible - a few severe storms possible over southwestern Minnesota.
According to NOAA's Palmer Index (details on the blog) much of our fair state is still running a 2-5" rainfall deficit since last autumn. The timing stinks, but our weekend soaking is a meteorological Godsend for farmers.
No more frost in sight - I think you're safe to plant annuals.
Panetta: Environment Emerges As National Security Concern. Here's an excerpt from a recent story at the U.S. Department of Defense: "Climate and environmental change are emerging as national security threats that weigh heavily in the Pentagon's new strategy, Defense Secretary Leo E. Panetta told an environmental group last night. "The area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security," Panetta said here at a reception hosted by the Environmental Defense Fund to honor the Defense Department advancing clean energy initiatives. "Rising sea levels, severe droughts, the melting of the polar ice caps, the more frequent and devastating natural disasters all raise demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief," Panetta said."
Photo credit above: "A butterfly lands on a flowering Confetti Lantan plant in San Antonio, Texas. Scientists have commonly under-predicted the climate change's effects on plants, says new research." AP Photo/Eric Gay.