Spring (For Real). No more Canadian Relapses brewing; highs approach 70 Saturday, low 70s likely Mother's Day, with highs approaching 80 by Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Data: European ECMWF model.
May 19-20: next chance of significant, widespread rain for much of Minnesota (ECMWF model).
March: 325th consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th century average. Details below.
Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), with freezing temperatures possible even in Minneapolis (31 degrees in 1979). On the warm side, St. Cloud saw 92 degrees in 1987, Minneapolis reported 91 in 1987, and International Falls reached 88 in 1977. The average early morning temperature varies from the high 30's in the northeast to the high 40's along the southern border. The average afternoon temperature generally ranges from the mid 60's along the northern border, to the low 70's in the extreme south. Along the shore of Lake Superior, highs are held in the mid 50's.
Three quarters of past opening days have been free of measurable precipitation. Two thirds of the fishing openers have been free of any precipitation, measurable or not. On those days with measurable rain, the amounts averaged close to a half-inch in the south and a quarter inch in the north. No amounts over one inch were recorded at International Falls, while Minneapolis experienced 1.15 in 1962 and 1.64 in 1965. St. Cloud saw 1.03 inches in 2008. Snowfall has generally has been limited to traces. Traces of snow were officially recorded in 1963, 1993, and 2009 at International Falls, and in 1968 at St. Cloud. A tenth (.1) of an inch fell at International Falls in 2000."
Photo credit above: "Minnesota State Attorney General Walter Mondale and Minnesota Governor Karl Rolvaag display their catch on opening day of the 1963 Minnesota fishing season."
- Warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed much of the contiguous United States during April, and the nationally-averaged temperature was 55.7 degrees F, 3.6 degrees F above average — the third warmest on record. The precipitation averaged across the nation was 2.23 inches, 0.20 inch below average.
- Warmer-than-average temperatures were present for a large portion of the nation during April — six states in the central U.S. and three states in the Northeast had April temperatures ranking among their ten warmest. Above-average temperatures were also present for the Southeast, Upper Midwest, and much of the West. No state in the contiguous United States had April temperatures that were below average.
- April 2012 came on the heels of the warmest March on record for the Lower-48, and eight states — Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin,Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia — had April temperatures which were, despite being warmer than normal, were still not as warm as their March temperatures.
* NOAA's GFS forecast map above is valid 12z, Thursday, May 24. We'll see.
Roof: Having the roof ripped from a house or collapsed is perhaps the most damaging hit that a hurricane can deliver, besides leveling the entire building. Without the roof, the interior of the house is exposed to winds, rain and debris. The structure of the house may not even be able to stand once the roof is detached. To ensure safety, roofs in Florida are restricted to certain shapes that allow optimal drainage and they must follow strict load requirements based on the kind of material the roof is built of."
Photo credit above: "Residents in Dare County prepare for last fall's Hurricane Irene. Photo courtesy of County of Dare."
Photo credit above: "In this photograph provided by the Breitling, Yves Rossy, known as the Jetman, prepares to land on Copacabana beach after a successful flight over Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Wednesday, May 2, 2012. The Swiss aviator dropped from a helicopter and deployed the Jet powered carbon-kevlar Jetwing which he uses his body to steer as he flew over the Brazilian city before landing on Copacabana Beach. (Felipe Dana/Breitling photo via AP Images)."
"Business men go down with their businesses because they like the old way so well they cannot bring themselves to change. One sees them all about - men who do not know that yesterday is past, and who woke up this morning with their last year's ideas." - Henry Ford (from the terrific book about Ford's recent turnaround, "American Icon")
Content Is No Longer King. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating story from allthingsd.com: “Content is king” has been a long-lived mantra of media. And in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was true. But over the last several years, the Internet has upheaved the aphorism. It used to be that media was linear. And in that world, content and distribution were married. The HBO channel had HBO content. A New York Times subscription bought you New York Times content. And Vogue and Cosmopolitan each month delivered exclusive and proprietary content from … Vogue and Cosmopolitan. Until the Internet came along. In every single one of the varied businesses the Internet has touched — from commerce to media to communications to payments — there has been one common impact: disaggregation."
I seem to have a magnetic force field that repels fish. My buddies often threaten to use me as bait. Serious anglers have an itch that a scratch won't reach. The first decent Saturday in nearly a month, falling on the Walleye Fishing Opener? Sounds too good to be true. "There has to be a catch Paul."
No flurries or wind chill this year. Don't laugh. According to folks at Minnesota's Climate Office northern lakes have seen snow on 5 of the last 64 Fishing Openers. Northern lakes were still frozen in 1966, 1979, 1996, 2008 and 2009!
On average 2 out of 3 openers are dry, and the forecast still looks good for Saturday: sunrise temperatures up north near 40, morning clouds giving way to partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. A slowly rising barometer isn't great for catching fish, so there's your excuse why the BIG ONE got away.
Mother's Day looks sunnier and milder; low 70s (with extra sunscreen).
Monsoon season is over, for now: no big storms in sight - just a fleeting T-shower tomorrow with a weak cool frontal passage. Temperatures hit 80 late next; jackets optional until further notice.
Timing is everything. I'm predicting extra spring in your step this weekend.
New Antarctic Ice Shelf Threatened By Warming. The story from Reuters; here's an excerpt: "The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf fringing the Weddell Sea on the eastern side of Antarctica has so far not seen ice loss from global warming and much of the observation of melting has focused on the western side of the continent around the Amundsen Sea. But new research from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Germany says the 450,000-sq-km ice shelf is under threat. "According to our calculations, this protective barrier will disintegrate by the end of this century," said Dr Harmut Hellmer, lead author of the study, published in the journal Nature this week."
An Inconvenient Lawsuit: Teenagers Take Global Warming To The Courts. Here's an excerpt of a fascinating article from The Atlantic: "Alec Loorz turns 18 at the end of this month. While finishing high school and playing Ultimate Frisbee on weekends, he's also suing the federal government in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. The Ventura, California, teen and four other juvenile plaintiffs want government officials to do more to prevent the risks of climate change -- the dangerous storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, and food-supply disruptions that scientists warn will threaten their generation absent a major turnabout in global energy policy. Specifically, the students are demanding that the U.S. government start reducing national emissions of carbon dioxide by at least six percent per year beginning in 2013."
Photo credit above: "Alec Loorz became a climate activist at age 12 after watching "An Inconvenient Truth" twice is one evening." (Victoria Loorz).
- Cultivated fish and shellfish are both susceptible to
climate change, although fish farming technologies offer good potential
- Controlled or closed fishing areas (a type of protected area) that can be adapted in response to climate change have the potential to help protect commercial and vulnerable fish stocks."
In economic theory, the problem here is that my actions that create emissions also damage someone else. But I don't have to pay for the damage I've caused. This is called an externality and the economists' solution is something called a Pigou Tax. That is, we add a tax equal to the damage I'm doing, so that I do pay for that damage.Worstall cites the Stern Review's figure of $80 per tonne of CO2 as a good starting ground for where to set a carbon tax, and explains why it's the most efficient way to deal with climate change."