Flood Warning. Recent (torrential) rains have resulted in flooding in the Brainerd area and much of northern Minnesota. Closer to the metro area the South Fork Crow River below Mayer is flooding in Carver county; details from the local NWS office:
FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 950 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MINNESOTA... SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER AFFECTING CARVER COUNTY .ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN PREDICTED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND ISSUE FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOOD EVENT.
Saturday Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates. MPX Doppler showed some 1-3" estimated amounts south and southeast of the metro area yesterday, the heaviest (3") amounts from Hastings to Eau Claire - the same "supercell" that spawned golfball-size hail.
Monsoon Season. So much for the drought eh? Good grief. Like turning on a switch: instant inundation. Models all agree that more heavy rain will fall tonight, predicting anywhere from .8 to 1.8". I tend to agree with the NAM solution: around 1" of additional rain overnight.
Predicted Rainfall Tonight. An eastbound cool front will probably squeeze out the heaviest rainfall amounts from near Duluth and Hinckley to St. Cloud and the western suburbs of the Twin Cities, as much as 1-1.5" of additional rain.
"The total weight of CO2 that entered the atmosphere thanks to fossil-fuel burning last year was 31.6 billion metric tons (or nearly 35 billion old-fashioned tons). That’s a 3.2 percent increase over 2010, setting an all-time record. To see what that looks like in real time, you can check out Deutche Bank’s carbon counter, which pegs the accumulate weight at more than 3.7 trillion metric tons." - from a Climate Central story below.
"A September 2009 study by the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) provides a snapshot of this disparity. It found that between 2002 and 2008, the government gave fossil fuels $72.5 billion, corn ethanol $16.8 billion, and renewable energy $12.2 billion in subsidies. In other words, 71 percent of federal subsidies went to oil, natural gas and coal, while only 12 percent went to renewables."
"The question should be whether the government should continue to underwrite extremely profitable, mature industries--especially highly polluting ones--at the expense of nurturing new, promising low-carbon alternatives. The obvious answer is no. Renewables currently generate only about 5 percent of U.S. electricity, but by 2030 they have the potential to produce more than 40 percent, half coming from wind. That would just about replace the share currently generated by coal, which is responsible for more than 80 percent of U.S. utility sector carbon emissions."
- from a Huffington Post article below.
Global Heat Wave Disasters. I had no idea there were 126 killer heat waves, worldwide, from 1980 - 2008, with 89,889 deaths linked to extreme heat. More details from preventionweb.net.
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion From Baron Services in Huntsville:
"Beryl remains classified as a sub-tropical Storm at 8pm by the National Hurricane Center. The newest hurricane hunter report indicated maximum sustained winds at 50 mph with higher gusts. Beryl is moving SW at 6 mph tonight and has intensified slightly with pressure at 998mb.
The ridge will keep building to the east and this will keep Beryl moving to the Southwest and turning to the West later on Sunday. There is a small band of thunderstorms near the center of circulation, but little overall strengthening is expected for Beryl. Dry air continues to be entrained, which is very apparent on water vapor imagery.
Beryl is expected to make landfall somewhere along the northeast Florida coast Sunday evening. The coast from northern Florida to South Carolina can expect storm surge of 1 to 3 ft during high tide. Most models, including the BAMS, now have Beryl moving farther inland over the Florida panhandle than previously forecast. From there models diverge somewhat as a middle level trough moves towards the Tennessee Valley and east coast. This should pick Beryl (or the remains thereof) and pull it back east across southern Georgia/northern Florida and then up the east coast. This is contingent on the strength of the approaching trough, however, and the higher resolution 15km BAMS has Beryl going as far west as Tallahassee before curving back to the NW."
Baron Forecast Team.
Tropical Storm "Bud" Brushes Mexico's West Coast. Here's an update from Huffington Post: "Bud is weakening and becoming increasingly disorganized in the Pacific just off Mexico. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Saturday that Bud had degenerated to a remnant low. It was expected to dissipate within the next day or say. Maximum sustained winds had weakened significantly and were near 30 mph (48 kph) as the storm hovered about 15 miles (24 kilometers) off the coast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Forecasters say the storm could still drop another inch or two of rain along Mexico's southwestern coast."
Michigan Wildfires From Space. The Columbia, South Carolina office of the NWS shared this, via Facebook: "Thought we would share with you an outstanding 250 meter resolution Visible satellite image from this afternoon in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Featured in the image is a large fire with a eastward drifting smoke plume. Also visible is the lake breeze boundary identified by the cumulus cloud field."
Photo credit above: "The storm flattened this church near Mirabel, Que." (Pascal Robidas/Radio-Canada)
This is a terrible idea for a couple of reasons, explains Julie Rochman, president of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety. "A, it doesn't work. And B, it's a really bad idea to stand in front of a window when a tornado is flinging debris all over the place. Plus, if there's an opening in the window, you could be sucked out."
Rochman recommends that people "leave their windows alone and instead go to a windowless area, like a shelter, your basement or a windowless room."
- "Locate and agree on a safe room. Plan to find the lowest place in the house, without windows. Usually this is the basement or an interior closet or storeroom. Meet as a family and agree to the plan to meet there in case of emergency. Be sure that each family member has a plan for shelter away from home in case of a storm that doesn’t allow everyone to get home.
- Supplies. Be sure to keep supplies on hand in or near the safe room. These should include: water, a water purification kit, non-perishable snacks/food, blankets and pillows, clothing, first aid, medical equipment for special-needs family members, pre-moistened towelettes, hand sanitizer, zip-lock plastic bags, disposable eating ware, duct tape, necessary toiletries, flashlights with fresh batteries, radio, cell phone with charged batteries, entertainment items such as books, or games, pet care items. If you have a baby or toddler you will need appropriate supplies: diapers, baby food, formula, toys, etc. You may want a battery-operated laptop with a cellular modem to be able to connect with email and Internet.
- Evacuation plan. Have a plan if you will be required to evacuate due to incoming weather. Hurricanes and floods approach more slowly giving people time to escape."
* more race information for the Indianapolis 500, which kicks off noon today, here.
I should be serving towels (and helmets) with this forecast. And for the record: that "dry bias" I was seeing on the maps a few weeks ago? Never mind.
We're closing in on 10" of rain for May; at this rate I may be growing rice, not roses, in my back yard.<p>Climate change making our weather patterns more erratic: perception or reality? 86" of snow 2010-2011, 22" last winter. Green lawns and boats on Minnesota lakes in late March, followed by a flip-flop from severe drought to perpetual flood in, what, 3 weeks? Weather on steroids.
Minnesota monsoon season gives way to a hot front today, temperatures nearly 40 degrees warmer than Thursday AM. If the sun stays out for a few hours today (likely) we should see low to mid 90s, with a drippy, debilitating dew point above 70.
Guam - with lakes.
While you slather on sunscreen and splash in your favorite lake keep a watchful eye on the western sky. Conditions are ripe for another round of strong/severe T-storms by tonight.
Up to one inch of rain may falls tonight, but Monday morning puddles give way to rapid clearing, dew points falling through the 50s. We may actually salvage a decent Memorial Day; highs near 80.
It's a meteorological miracle!
Photo credit above:
Photo credit above: "Warming has allowed the brown argus butterfly to rapidly expand its range in England and Wales." Louise Mair.