Thawing Easter Eggs
I just hope we can salvage a couple of quiet weeks between the slush and the tornadoes. Some faint approximation of this long-ridiculed theory called "spring".
We have every reason to gripe. D.J. Kayser, a meteorologist & producer at WeatherNation, tallied up a total of 37 days this past winter where the wind chill went below -20F at some point during the day. That's 3 times more than average.
A growing probability of El Nino could mean a slightly wetter & cooler summer; if it lingers into next winter it would probably trigger a mild bias. If it's an (EP) Eastern Pacific El Nino event it could spike temperatures, worldwide. Too early to tell.
A straggling front keeps clouds and a few spotty showers around the area today. Most of the time should be dry - and if the sun breaks out for a few hours we may hit 70F, with less wind than Saturday.
Skies clear Monday behind a weak cool front - a blue-sky Tuesday giving way to heavy showers & T-storms Wednesday/Thursday. Long-range ECMWF guidance shows highs in the 40s next weekend; a cold rain Sunday may end as wet snow 1 week from Monday. I pray the models are wrong, but nothing surprises me anymore.
For now enjoy a lukewarm Easter! You've earned it.
* image credit here.
New Hurricane Forecast Maps Can Warn You Of Impending Floods. It's not the winds that wreak the most havoc and threaten life and property the most; it's the storm surge. This year NOAA NHC will be sharing storm surge forecasts on a metro by metro basis, as explained by io9.com: "More than half of all hurricane-related deaths are caused by storm surges, yet few consider it a factor when trying to decide whether or not to evacuate their homes. But starting this hurricane season, national forecasters will warn people using color-coded storm surge maps. No doubt, storm surges are a serious issue. Along vulnerable coasts, they pose the greatest threat to life and property from a hurricane. Large death tolls have been known to result from the rise of oceans when major hurricanes reach land. Back in 2005, for example, Hurricane Katrina caused at least 1,500 deaths, many of which occurred directly or indirectly as a result of storm surge..."
Credit above: "A new ScienceCast video explores unexpected "teleconnections" in Earth's atmosphere that link weather and climate across vast distances."
Photo credit above: "The dry bed of the Stevens Creek Reservoir is seen on Thursday, March 13, 2014, in Cupertino, Calif." Image: Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press.
Photo credit above: "Picnic beside the cherry blossom in a Shinjuku park." Photo by Jérémie Souteyrat.
Arctic Oil: Is it Madness to Celebrate a New Source of Fossil Fuels? Here's a clip from The Guardian: "...In the last 30 years we've lost three-quarters of Arctic sea ice volume in summer months. And as oil companies rush in to exploit the shrinking ice, they are also risking environmental disasters in the fragile Arctic environment. So the question isn't how to get off Kremlin controlled energy; it is how to tackle the political dominance of the fossil fuel industry. This decision is more relevant, more crucial, than ever before in our history. Fossil fuels got us into this mess, they won't get us out of it..." (Image: NOAA).
Map credit above: "Western U.S. trends for number of large fires in each ecoregion per year." Philip E. Dennison, Simon C. Brewer, James D. Arnold, Max A. Moritz. Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014.
Photo credit above: "University administrators argue that divesting won't make a difference, that it's not our job to "punish" bad actors. History does not support these claims." Photograph: Murdo Macleod.
Drunken Trees: Dramatic Signs of Climate Change. Seeing is believing, unless one chooses not to see. Here's a clip from National Geographic: "Sarah James, an Alaska Native elder, says global warming is radically changing her homeland. Even the forests no longer grow straight. Melting ground has caused trees to tilt or fall. "Because permafrost melts, it causes a lot of erosion," says James, who lives in Arctic Village, a small Native American village in northeastern Alaska. "A lot of trees can't stand up straight. If the erosion gets worse, everything goes with it..."
Photo credit above: "According to scientists, melting ground is to blame for tilting spruce trees." PHOTOGRAPH BY GALEN ROWELL, CORBIS.