Storm Inflation
When I got to KARE-11 (then WTCN) a "big winter
storm" meant 6-12 inches. My first winter, '83-84, a record 98.6" fell. I
remember having a "what have I gotten myself into?" moment. Since then
our winter snows have become more erratic; milder temperatures
(especially at night) leading to more melting. No guarantees of snow
cover all winter long. More midwinter rain/ice. In short, it's now hit
or miss.
In this fickle winter environment an inch or two has become reason to lead the news; today's 2-4 inches becomes a "storm".
We had a word for days like this back in the early 80s.
"Flurries".
Another big contributing factor: traffic, which
has nearly doubled in 30 years. It takes less snow/ice to cripple your
commute. This morning's powdery snow, falling at 20-23 F, may compress
into a smear of slush, which will quickly refreeze into glaze ice.
It could be worse: 8" for Chicago, maybe 16" at Kansas City. We're just getting a taste.
After a quiet weekend we thaw out a little next
week; Tuesday's storm probably tracks east of Minnesota. No more subzero
lows are in sight into early March.
This evening on TPT "Almanac" I talk about 2013: easing drought, but more severe storms.
On Edge. As the map above makes clear, the brunt of
the moisture and energy with today's storm is sliding just south/east of
MSP; we'll still pick up 2-4", mabe 5" for Northfield and Red Wing, 6"
for Rochester and Eau Claire, with 8-10" for Des Moines. Expect delays
at Chicago Midway and O'Hare with some 6-7" snowfall amounts.
Second Biggest Snowstorm On Record At Wichita. From
Capital Climate: "
The
latest National Weather Service storm total report from Wichita,
Kansas indicates that the 14.2" so far is the second biggest snowstorm
since records began in 1888. According to the latest hourly report,
snow has now ended. Elsewhere in Kansas, unofficial reports were as
high as 18"..."
Photo credit above: "Jason Rushford
and Anna Balthazor make a snow creature in Wichita, Kan., Thursday,
Feb. 21, 2013. Kansas was the epicenter of a winter storm, with parts
of the state buried under 14 inches of powdery snow, but winter storm
warnings stretched from eastern Colorado through Illinois." (AP Photo/The Wichita Eagle, Mike Hutmacher).
Kansas City "Rush Hour". Details: "
Northbound
I-29 near I-635 in Kansas City Missouri was littered with stuck vehicles
after the Kansas City area was pounded with rapidly accumulating snow,
Thursday, February 21, 2013." (Keith Myers/ Kansas City Star/MCT).
Chilly Into First Week of March.
The NAEFS experimental long range temperature forecast (first week of
March) shows a warming trend across much of Canada, but cooler than
average temperatures from the Midwest to Florida. No early spring this
year.
Check On That "Gently Used" Car. I would be very
careful about buying a used car these days - especially one that
originated on the east coast. Here's an excerpt from
The Daily News: "
Nearly
four months after Hurricane Sandy, the total number of cars damaged in
the storm has now past the 250,000 mark, according to preliminary
numbers released by the National Insurance Crime Bureau. The NICB’s
numbers are based on Sandy-related claims made to its member insurance
companies. NICB member companies make up 88 percent of auto insurance
available in the United States..."
4 Stages of Life. Not sure who to credit, but this one hit a nerve. I'm up to Stage 3, btw.
This Is A Test. Thanks to
failblog.org for this not-so-gentle reminder to never let your guard down. Ever.
Climate Stories...
Arctic Sea Ice Volume Now One Fifth Its 1979 Level.
For 30 years professional (in many cases paid) climate deniers have
squawked about "alarmists and hype". When it comes to ice volume in the
Arctic the changes are happening faster than even the most aggressive
climate models predicted. Here's an excerpt from
Jeff Master's Wunderblog: "...
With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release,
co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80
percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows
is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that
the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported
that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume
of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The
measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most
stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines,
sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral".
Graphic credit above: "
Arctic
sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September
minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of
Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more
than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson."
Poll: Climate Change A Top Concern For Latinos. This caught my eye, and in
Fox News Latino,
no less. Maybe someone at Fox News Latino will communicate this
headline to the Fox Mothership. Wait, aren't Republicans trying to court
Latinos? But many continue to deny that climate change is even a
problem. My head hurts. Here's an excerpt: "...
The poll showed 74
percent of Latinos -- 1,218 were polled -- believe climate change is a
very serious problem. This number is almost 10 percent higher than the
national average among all American adults. “What was surprising was
that once again Latinos have higher support for taking action against
global warming,” said Quintero..."
Kerry Comes Out Swinging On Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of a story at
The Hill: "...
Kerry
again signaled that he hopes to use his role as top diplomat to
promote green energy technologies, arguing they can provide a major
boost to U.S. industries in the “next great revolution in our
marketplace.” He also cited the prospect of new markets for “America’s
second-to-none innovators and entrepreneurs.” “We need to commit
ourselves to doing the smart thing and the right thing and to truly
take on this challenge, because if we don’t rise to meet it, then
rising temperatures and rising sea levels will surely lead to rising
costs down the road. Ask any insurance company,” he said..."
Solutions For Climate Change Aren't Either/Or. Here's the conclusion of an Op-Ed at
billmoyers.com: "...
President
Obama’s decision on Keystone XL is at the top of our list because it’s
the most immediate decision he can make to fight climate disruption.
The reason why Americans want to stop tar sands is because they
recognize something that short-sighted critics seem to have overlooked:
The president cannot be serious about fighting climate disruption and
approve the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline. This pipeline would open
the floodgates for one of the filthiest fuel sources in the world. It
would pump some of the filthiest, most carbon-intensive fuels through
our country and onto the world market. President Obama can’t have it
both ways."
Photo credit above: "
Thousands of protestors gather at the
National Mall in Washington calling on President Barack Obama to
reject the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, as well as act to
limit carbon pollution from power plants and '€move beyond'€ coal and
natural gas, Sunday, Feb. 17, 2013." (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta).
Unlocking The Conspiracy Mindset. You just can't make this stuff up. Here's a snippet of a story from Justin Gillis at
The New York Times: "...
The
strongest finding in the survey was that ideological belief in an
unregulated free market tended to be a predictor of someone’s
willingness to reject the findings of mainstream climate research. No
great surprise there. It was the secondary findings that set off a
brouhaha. Dr. Lewandowsky’s survey results suggested that people who
rejected climate science were more likely than other respondents to
reject other scientific or official findings and buy into assorted
fringe theories: that NASA faked the moon landing, that the Central
Intelligence Agency killed Martin Luther King Jr., that the AIDS virus
was unleashed by the government, and so forth..."
USDA On Climate Change: Adaptation For Agriculture, Forests. Here's a segment of a story at
The Energy Collective: "
Crop
production may shift along with changing temperature and precipitation
patterns, but that doesn’t lessen the likely disruption to lives,
livelihoods and communities in agricultural, forest and other areas
where local economies across the country depend on natural resources,
or to residents of urban areas ultimately dependent on the water, food,
fiber and materials ecosystems provide. For example, the annual cost
of weed control in the U.S. total more than $11 billion, according to
the report. That’s expected to increase with rising temperatures and
carbon dioxide concentrations, which will add to rising food costs.
Similarly, rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will
also have impacts on livestock production. “Heat stress for any
specific type of livestock can damage performance, production, and
fertility, limiting the production of meat, milk, or eggs..."
