Money Shot. Here is the waterspout that came ashore, sparking significant wind damage in parts of Queens and Brooklyn, New York. Credit: Joey Mure and Michael Abrams from 11 Bayside, Breezy Point, New York. Well done.
Tornadoes in New York City? Here's an excerpt from Time Magazine: "The September weather system marks the second time in four months that tornado-like circumstances have touched down in New York. From 1950-1974, the city experienced a dry spell, with no storms on record. But since the mid 70s, seven tornadoes had touched ground, including July 25, 2010′s EF1 system in the Bronx (86-110 mile-per hour winds)."
Instant Downpour. Thanks to meteorologist Justin Berk for passing on this photo sequence: "That was the fastest I’ve seen it roll in and we get active weather here. This is south central York County Pa. About 30-40 miles north of Baltimore looking southwest."
Topsoil moisture across 63 percent of Minnesota's landscape is said to be Short or Very Short.
Stream flow measurements at reporting stations in the driest areas of the state rank below the 10th percentile when compared with historical data for the date.
The drought situation in northwest Minnesota is the result of an historically dry autumn in 2011, a snow-sparse winter, and a dry 2012 growing season (maps below). The moisture deficits in southern Minnesota developed rapidly due to very hot and very dry conditions over the past eleven weeks (maps below). Over this period, rainfall totals in many Minnesota counties fell short of average by four or more inches. This is the climatological equivalent of missing an entire summer's month worth of precipitation. In some south central Minnesota communities, late-summer rainfall deficits are in excess of six inches."
"...The good news is that creating businesses that will power our growth, and reduce our carbon output while protecting resources, is also the greatest wealth-generating opportunity of our generation. [There is no] choice between growth and reducing our carbon output." - Sir Richard Branson, quoted in a Bloomberg article below.
6 lowest Arctic sea ice levels on record all occurred in the past 6 years. Source: Wall Street Journal.
13,000 homes damaged or destroyed by Isaac in Louisiana alone. Radar loop above: NOAA, earthsky.org.
Second wettest summer on record for the U.K. Only 1912 was wetter.
Definition Of An "Isolated Shower". This photo was taken by Navy Ensign Brett Kruhoeffer 3,000 feet above Pensacola Bay in a Cessna 172, a rain shaft 2 miles away the only shower in the area.
Image credit above: "Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite on the Suomi-NPP satellite captured this nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac and the city lights early on August 29, 2012." Image Credit: NASA.
Dear Mr. Paul Douglas-
"Here is the yearly question on where & when to view the best fall colors in MN. Pardon me if you already answered this question, can you send me the link if so?
1. Where in Minnesota is Peak fall color going to be the best on Oct 1st? (given the choices of North Shore- Gooseberry falls, Hinckley, Stillwater, Red Wing, Winona)
2. Is it true north shore colors are better than Red Wing – Winona area because North Shore had better rain fall and southern MN in drought?
3. When do you forecast peak colors for Gooseberry Falls area?
4. When do you forecast peak colors for Red Wing – Winona area?
I realize the Minnesota DNR has this info, but I’m banking on your help for a romantic fall getaway with my lovely wife!"
Steve Grimm, Sales Estimator
Advanced Response Systems
Favorite recent gadget ("productivity tool"):
What I'm reading (as if anyone cares):
"Winter is not a season, it's an occupation" wrote Sinclair Lewis. How true, especially at this latitude. It's human nature to want to know what comes next. We just muddled through the 3rd hottest summer on record. Only 1988 and 1933 were hotter. The Winter of 1988-89 brought a whopping 70 inches of snowy goodness. 1933-34? A wimpy 25 inches.
The severity of summer heat is NOT a good predictor of the winter to come.
NOAA expects an El Nino warming of the Pacific to kick in later this month and linger into spring '13. A warm stain of water may hijack the jet stream, keeping the southern US wetter, a slightly drier, warmer bias for northern states, including Minnesota. Would I bet the farm on that? No way.
Record ice loss and warming over the Arctic may have unforeseen effects here at home.
I do expect recent trends to continue: fewer subzero blasts, more sporadic snows and warmer nights.
I suspect Minnesota's drought will get worse this month; no rain until the end of next week.
A comfortable, blue-sky Sunday gives way to 80F Monday, highs top 90F on Tuesday. That would be the 31st day at or above 90 this year.
If this keeps up we may just lose our chilly reputation.
Photo credit above: Nicolle Rager Fuller, National Science Foundation. "Even after years of research, scientists, policymakers and the general public still can’t seem to agree that climate change is a problem, let alone on how to address the changes the Earth is undergoing."
Photo credit above: lovely huh? "A female blacklegged tick converting its blood-meal into thousands of eggs." Credit: NSF/Graham Hickling, University of Tennessee
Discovery News: At the risk of asking you to distill complex science into a simplistic soundbite: Is climate change affecting the number and intensity of cyclones and hurricanes?
Kerry Emanuel: Most of us think that we are seeing a climate change signal in the North Atlantic, which is by far the best observed and has been observed for the longest period of time; but I hasten to add that only about 12 percent of the world’s tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic. The other parts of the world are not so well observed.
What we expect from a combination of theory and modeling is that as the climate warms, the actual total number of these storms should decline globally, but the incidence of the severe Category 3, 4 and 5 storms is expected on the other hand to go up. And we do see some indication that the proportion of hurricanes that are intense around the world has been going up, although our data is a bit tenuous and is not for very long, so nobody has a great deal of confidence in it.
Photo credit above: "Cars travel along Interstate 80 in Berkeley, California. President Barack Obama’s administration has required automakers to double the average fuel economy of passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2025." Photographer: Chip Chipman/Bloomberg.