News of a "Temperature Correction" on the way:
"Starting on Tuesday, consumers east of the Rockies will be reaching for a fleece jacket during the day and an extra blanket overnight. While some areas enjoyed cooler overnight conditions this week, next Tuesday and Wednesday (September 18th & 19th) is expected to bring a 25 to 30°F decrease for both day time and overnight temperatures compared to recent weeks across the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes. Frost is likely across these regions, including the major population areas of Minneapolis, Green Bay, Madison, and Milwaukee."
Crops and cattle in drought have begun to rise again. Overall, drought has shifted toward the north and west in recent weeks.
- U.S. corn in drought stands at 84%, up a percentage point from a week ago. The corn harvest is underway, 15% complete nationally by September 9.
- Soybeans in drought also rose a point – to 81%. The soybean harvest is underway in a few areas, 4% complete nationally by September 9.
- Hay in drought rose 3 points to 66%, tying the high set on July 17 and 24.
- Cattle in drought reached a new high, rising 2 points to 74%.
- Winter wheat in drought is added this week, as planting is underway (4% complete). Nearly three-quarters (74%) of the winter wheat area is in drought.
- Due to expansion of drought in the nation’s mid-section, contiguous U.S. drought coverage reached a record-high 64.16% on September 11. The former record of 63.86% had been set on July 24."
Blocking Patterns: How Global Warming May Have Worsened U.S. Drought. Extreme warming over the Arctic is affecting the jet stream patterns, with a greater tendency toward "blocks", holding patterns aloft that can make heat, drought (and flooding) worse. The Christian Science Monitor explains; here's an excerpt: "As the summer of 2012 winds down, with drought and searing temperatures its hallmark for much of the continental United States, researchers are trying to get a better handle on the factors that contribute to the persistence of weather patterns responsible for the extremes. The immediate culprit: patterns of atmospheric flow that steer storms along a given path for weeks, heating and depriving some areas of needed rain while drenching others. Such blocking patterns are a global phenomena, a normal component of Earth's weather systems. But some researchers suggest that global warming's influence on the Arctic and on the tropics can change circulation patterns in ways that keep blocking patterns in place longer than they otherwise might."
Photo credit above: "Drought-damaged corn is seen in a field near Nickerson, Neb., on Aug. 16." Nati Harnik/AP/File
"The bad news: I have never, in all my years of following tropical cyclones, seen a storm this intense here in the Pacific. Super Typhoon Sanba is peaking in intensity at 155 knots, or 178.25 mph, today along with gusts near 220 mph (!!!) – a Category 5-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – and will remain close to that for next day or so."High-resolution satellite image above courtesy of Digital-Typhoon.
On This Date in Weather History (courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service):
2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, killing a 10 year old girl.
1992: New Market received nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapsed from floodwater in northern Le Sueur County.
1955: An F1 tornado touched down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages.
Risk of a Correction
What will I remember about this summer? The persistence of the heat: Phoenix sizzle meets New Orleans humidity: 31 days of sauna-like 90s and jumbo electric bills to stay cool. 3rd hottest summer, no tornadoes in the metro area (all those local TV station Dopplers collecting dust!), and a spastic precipitation pattern. Parts of Duluth wash away, while drought plagues southern counties. All or nothing.
Check the NASA GISS data above and you'll see the warming since last December has been global - not just over the USA, according to NASA.
In spite of the trends we will have winter again this year. Steer clear of anyone who tries to tell you exactly what will happen in the coming months, but the first cold smack of winter is imminent.
Soak up 80F today; Monday showers mark the arrival of cold front number 1. Light jackets Tuesday give way to heavy jackets Friday; highs stuck in the 40s and 50s. It's hard to imagine today, but flurries may brush far northern Minnesota by late week. First frost in the MSP metro? Probably 6-8 days away, coming roughly 1-2 weeks earlier than usual.
Well, spring came early this year, right? So did super-sized summer heat.
Mother Nature is just being consistent.
Global Warming: How Fast Will The Ice Melt? Here's a clip from a recent story at The Summit County Citizens Voice: "It’s pretty clear that glaciers and ice fields have been melting the past few decades under relentless global warming. But scientists aren’t sure exactly how fast the melting will proceed, whether it will speed up, or perhaps stabilize at some point. A new study looking back at historic changes in response to climate variations may help answer some of those questions. The research shows that glaciers on Canada’s Baffin Island expanded rapidly during a brief cold snap about 8,200 years ago, suggesting that changes can be sudden and drastic."
Photo credit above: "Research finds that ice sheets can be very sensitive to short-term temperature variations." Photo by Bob Berwyn.
Image above: NASA.
Photo credit: Charlie Riedel/AP Photo. "Time exposure of smokestacks at the La Cygne Generating Station coal-fired power plant in Kansas."
Photo credit above: "Northern Polar Institute Research Director Kim Holmen, left, with UN Foundation Board Chairman Ted Turner and President Timothy Wirth in the Arctic."