3 "moderate risk" days for severe thunderstorms in September in the last 15 years. Source: Greg Carbin, NOAA:
September 1, 2002, valid for September 2, 2002
September 21, 2006, valid for September 22, 2006
September 7, 2012, valid for September 8, 2012
"Leslie". Yes, this hurricane is confounding the experts down at NHC. Yesterday it was demoted from a hurricane to a tropical storm. As of late last night it packed 65 mph winds, creeping north at only 3 mph. Models continue to show strengthening, the core of Leslie passing well east of Bermuda, possibly reaching Newfoundland, Canada with 90 mph winds by next Tuesday. Map: Ham Weather.
"...The good news is that creating businesses that will power our growth, and reduce our carbon output while protecting resources, is also the greatest wealth-generating opportunity of our generation. [There is no] choice between growth and reducing our carbon output." - Sir Richard Branson, quoted in a Bloomberg article below.
6 lowest Arctic sea ice levels on record all occurred in the past 6 years. Source: Wall Street Journal.
13,000 homes damaged or destroyed by Isaac in Louisiana alone. Radar loop above: NOAA, earthsky.org.
Second wettest summer on record for the U.K. Only 1912 was wetter.
Image credit above: "Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite on the Suomi-NPP satellite captured this nighttime view of Hurricane Isaac and the city lights early on August 29, 2012." Image Credit: NASA.
Dear Mr. Paul Douglas-
"Here is the yearly question on where & when to view the best fall colors in MN. Pardon me if you already answered this question, can you send me the link if so?
1. Where in Minnesota is Peak fall color going to be the best on Oct 1st? (given the choices of North Shore- Gooseberry falls, Hinckley, Stillwater, Red Wing, Winona)
2. Is it true north shore colors are better than red wing – winona area because north shore had better rain fall and southern MN in drought?
3. When do you forecast peak colors for Gooseberry falls area?
4. When do you forecast peak colors for red wing – Winona area?
I realize the Minnesota DNR has this info, but I’m banking on your help for a romantic fall getaway with my lovely wife!"
Steve Grimm, Sales Estimator
Advanced Response Systems
Favorite recent gadget ("productivity tool"):
What I'm reading (as if anyone cares):
Rating Winter Storms?
There was a time when a newspaper in Grand Forks named big winter storms after local hockey players and politicians. Interesting idea.
In recent years NOAA has been testing a 1-5 rating scale for major winter storms, to help set expectations. That may be a better idea. But why stop there? July's historic heatwave and drought would have been a Category 5.
The truth: no rating scale will cover all the bases and avert weather-related hardship.
Many people underestimated Isaac. "Category 1...how bad can it be?" Plenty bad. According to Christopher Burt at Weather Underground, Isaac's storm surge, central pressure and diameter was closer to a Category 2-3 hurricane: $3 billion in damage. 40 people lost their lives.
Rating storms and major weather events can help to prepare people, but with weather it pays to be perpetually paranoid. There is still no substitute for common sense, and erring on the side of safety.
An Alberta Clipper whips up PM showers from Duluth to Hayward and Spooner today. Expect a partly sunny sky in Minnesota, with highs in the mid-70s. Sunday looks sunnier with less wind; a few more days above 80 next week.
NOAA has issued an El Nino Watch; a warm phase developing in the Pacific. Will our winter be a Category 1 or a 4?
Discovery News: At the risk of asking you to distill complex science into a simplistic soundbite: Is climate change affecting the number and intensity of cyclones and hurricanes?
Kerry Emanuel: Most of us think that we are seeing a climate change signal in the North Atlantic, which is by far the best observed and has been observed for the longest period of time; but I hasten to add that only about 12 percent of the world’s tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic. The other parts of the world are not so well observed.
What we expect from a combination of theory and modeling is that as the climate warms, the actual total number of these storms should decline globally, but the incidence of the severe Category 3, 4 and 5 storms is expected on the other hand to go up. And we do see some indication that the proportion of hurricanes that are intense around the world has been going up, although our data is a bit tenuous and is not for very long, so nobody has a great deal of confidence in it.
Photo credit above: "Cars travel along Interstate 80 in Berkeley, California. President Barack Obama’s administration has required automakers to double the average fuel economy of passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2025." Photographer: Chip Chipman/Bloomberg.