Cold, Wet Slap
You may be running on Sunday - just to stay warm. The first significant "Canadian Intrusion" of the winter season arrives this weekend, preceded by heavy rain - followed by an almost November-like breeze by Sunday. Any sun early Sunday will give way to low, lumpy stratocumulus clouds; temperatures stuck in the 40s with a whiff of wind chill for runners (and spectators) participating in this year's Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon. It will be a chilly race; any instability showers and sprinkles probably holding off until afternoon (when I will triumphantly cross the finish line on my Segway Scooter).
Enjoy 70s with fading sun today; a few T-storms may get your attention tonight.
The biggest storm in 5 months will spin up, pushing two surges of rain across Minnesota. The first wave of rain arrives Thursday, a second soaking possible Friday afternoon into midday Saturday. Some 1-2 inch amounts are possible, especially north & west of MSP. Cold exhaust follows the storm, temperatures aloft ALMOST cold enough for a few stray flurries close to home Sunday evening.
Payback for a September 5.2F warmer than average? Perhaps. Don't despair, more 60s are brewing by mid-October.
1.29" rain predicted for the Twin Cities by Saturday morning (NAM model).
Another Mild Front, And First Frost? GFS data shows a potential for 60-degree highs the weekend after next (October 12-13), followed by a cold front that may lead to the first metro frost of the season, coming about 2 weeks from today. Circle your calendar.
* but the European (ECMWF) model isn't picking up on this system strengthening in the Gulf, at least not yet, so I'm discounting this solution a bit (for now).
As Peak Storm Season Fades, Gulf Becomes Target. I don't see any short-term tropical threats, and October will (probably) mirror the entire hurricane season, trending much lower than average in the Atlantic and Caribbean. But the threat isn't zero, not yet, especially over the Gulf Coast and Florida. Here's an excerpt from HeraldTribune.com: "...A variety of factors have contributed to the dry atmosphere, he said, including a drought in Brazil, “super dry” air blowing off Africa from the Saharan dessert, and a global weather pattern that is currently generating downdrafts of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic. “Tropical storms like to have updrafts to sustain them and if you have downdrafts you're squashing tropical storm activity,” Masters said, adding that “the odds are less than usual that we'll see tropical storm activity” in October..." (Image above: NASA).
Why Scientists Were Wrong About This Year's Hurricane Season. Here's a segment of a very good explanation of why the Atlantic has been eerily quiet in recent months, courtesy of National Geographic: "An infusion of very dry air over the Atlantic Ocean has kept the 2013 hurricane season from being the stormy summer that forecasters expected it to be in June. "A lot of people are scratching their heads right now," said Keith Blackwell, professor of meteorology at the University of South Alabama in Mobile. "Everybody was wrong in their long-range predictions." A high-pressure system known as the Azores-Bermuda High that often parks over the Atlantic Ocean during the summer is the reason so much dry air has moved over the Atlantic, scientists say. The Azores-Bermuda High often has a significant influence on the direction tropical storms take as they move northward..."
Photo credit above: "Villagers cross a collapsed bridge near Acapulco which was the hardest hit following the heavy rains unleashed by Hurricane Manuel last week." Photograph by Henry Romero, Reuters
Photo credit above: "Reporter Trevor Hughes too this photo from Estes Park, Colo., on Sept. 24. "Beauty amidst devastation in Colorado," he wrote." / Trevor Hughes.
File photo credit above: "In this Sept. 14, 2013, file photo, a portion of Lefthand Canyon Road near the intersection of Olde Stage Road in Boulder, Colo., is destroyed by floodwaters. Colorado transportation officials are scrambling to replace key mountain highways with at least gravel before the first winter storms hit as early as October, but rebuilding every flood-damaged road and bridge in the mountains and plains will have to wait until 2014 or beyond." (AP Photo/Daily Camera, Jeremy Papasso, File).
File photo above: " .
Sandy Changed Attitudes - For Better And Worse. NBC Philadelphia gauges the physical, long-term impacts of Sandy on the Jersey Shore, and changes in psychology related to the aftermath of Sandy; here's a clip: "...In other post-Sandy research, a Rutgers psychologist's studies seem to show that Sandy may have made some younger voters more likely to vote for a politician running on a "green" platform -- even if it could mean tax increases. Further, the research showed that one positive effect of Sandy may have been in convincing formerly skeptical people that climate change is a man-made phenomenon. Laurie Rudman's research, published in the journal Psychological Science, is based on two rounds of surveys she did among Rutgers undergraduate students, in 2010 and just after Hurrican Sandy last fall..."
Image credit: May, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado aerial image, before and after. Courtesy: ESRI.
Image credit above: "The Blooming Bamboo home, by Vietnamese architectural firm H&P Architects." (Photo: Doan Thanh Ha).
Photo credit: Ron Johnson, Journal Star.
One In Eight People Around The World Go Hungry, Says U.N. Report. The New York Times has the sobering details - here's an excerpt: "One in eight people around the world is chronically undernourished, the United Nations' food agencies said on Tuesday, warning world leaders that some regions would fail in halving the number of hungry by 2015. In their latest report on food insecurity, the U.N. agencies estimated that 842 million people were suffering chronic hunger in 2011-13, or 12 percent of the world's population, down 17 percent from 1990-92..."
No. 1: Walter White goes RamboThe writers of “Breaking Bad” gave Walter White his M60 before they knew who it would kill. Vince Gilligan says in the final “Breaking Bad Insider” podcast that he and his team had no idea, when they gave Walt the machine gun at the start of the final season, that he would eventually motorize it mow down Neo Nazis. They didn’t even know the show would have Neo Nazis..."
"global climate models generally simulate global temperatures that compare well with observations over climate timescales ... The 1990–2012 data have been shown to be consistent with the [1990 IPCC report] projections, and not consistent with zero trend from 1990 ... the trend in globally-averaged surface temperatures falls within the range of the previous IPCC projections."Graphic credit above: "
Graphic credit above: "Increase of water temperature in the deep Greenland Sea. Mean temperature (°C) from 2000 m to the bottom in the central Greenland Sea (74-76°N, 0-6°W) from 1950 to 2009 (red line). The shading shows the range of temperature from 2000 m (warmer limit) to the bottom (colder limit). (Credit: Alfred-Wegener-Institut)."
NOAA Scientists Looking At Link Between Climate Change And Flooding. CBS Denver has the story and video - here's an excerpt: "A United Nation’s panel on climate change says the changes can be blamed on human activity. Top scientists from around the world say people are mostly to blame for rising temperatures since 1951. Some of the best weather and climate scientists in the world are based at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder. It’s ironic and convenient they are located in Boulder where the flood did some of its worst damage. They are analyzing all the data to determine whether this is truly the 100-year flood or brought on by climate change..."
Photo credit above: ANDY CLARK / REUTERS FILE PHOTO. "There is debate over whether this year's devastating floods in Calgary, above, and Ontario were due to climate change, but one expert says “we will see more of those kind of events" as Canada experiences more precipitation and a faster spring melt."
World's Carbon Budget To Be Spent In 3 Decades. WRI Insights has the story - here's the introduction: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has delivered an overwhelming consensus that climate change impacts are accelerating, fueld by human-caused emissions. We may have just about 30 years left until the world's carbon budget is spent if we want a likely chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees C. Breaching this limit would put the world at increased risk of forest fires, coral bleaching, higher sea level rise, and other dangerous impacts..."