"In fact, after two of the driest years on record, the US was only a quarter-inch away from breaking the record for the wettest six months ever measured, nationwide. The two years ending in September 2013 were also tied for the warmest in the nation’s recorded weather history." - excerpt from a story at Quartz below.
Minnesota is a state of armchair meteorologists. Everyone has a story & an opinion. Lately I’ve been getting questions about the “Euro” (ECMWF) model. “You refer to it a lot in your column – is it really better?” Yes. Overall it may be the best weather model on the planet today. Why? NOAA runs scores of models with acronyms like NAM, RAP, HRRR and HWRF. We rely on many of these simulations; the art is knowing which one to believe and when.
The Europeans focus all their time, money & resources into ONE model, the ECMWF. They initialize it with new data as the model is running. Like fueling a jet in midair.
Last year the ECMWF tipped me off that Sandy would veer into New Jersey 8 days before landfall. In the wake of Sandy NOAA is redoubling its efforts and modeling resources to try and get back on top. I wouldn’t bet against them.
Expect a minor temperature relapse today, gusty winds & scrappy clouds, highs stuck in the low 40s. Sunday may restore your faith in late October as highs push into the mid-50s again.
We chill down next week, dry weather prevailing Monday and Tuesday, before a sloppy southern storm pushes a shield of rain into Minnesota Wednesday and Wednesday night. Models dry us out during the day Halloween as the shield of rain pushes into Wisconsin. We may just catch a break for Trick-or-Treating this year.
* ECMWF "Euro" forecast above valid Thursday evening (showing the brunt of the rain pushing just east of Minnesota) courtesy of WSI Corporation.
More Heavy Snow For Black Hills. NAM data thru late Monday night shows another significant snow potential from Wyoming and Montana into the western Dakotas, as much as a foot north/west of Rapid City. May: NOAA and Ham Weather.
A Couple Of Milder Days. Again, not quite Indian Summer, and we can (technically/officially) call it Indian Summer now that we've seen the first frost. But 50s felt good yesterday; more 50s on Sunday, again Wednesday of next week; ECMWF model data suggesting low 60s on Halloween as the brunt of the rain shifts east. Graphic: Weatherspark.
An Active Pattern. GFS model data also shows a major storm for the Plains and Midwest by Wednsday of next week, but this model takes the storm farther east than the ECMWF solution. The southeast slowly warms, another weekend cool frontal passage on the way for New England. Map: NOAA and Ham Weather.
Halloween Weather. As always, Dr. Mark Seeley has some good historical climate nuggets in this week's edition of The WeatherTalk Newsletter: "Halloween weather is usually pleasant in Minnesota with temperatures commonly in the 40s and 50s F. Precipitation occurs slightly less than a third of the time. For the Twin Cities and further south snow is unlikely for Halloween, occurring only about one year in ten. Of course many remember the famous Halloween Blizzard of 1991, when 3 to 10 inches of snowfall was measured across eastern parts of the state, and then the bulk of the snowfall occurred over November 1-2, leaving many observers with over 2 feet (28.4" in the Twin Cities and 36.9" in Duluth). The all-time temperature records for Halloween include a reading of 86 degrees F at Worthington in 1950, and a reading of -4 degrees F at Hallock in 1913..."
Image credit above: "Heavy smog has shrouded much of eastern China, and air quality levels have been dropped to extremely dangerous levels. The heavy smog is caused by industrial pollution, coal and agricultural burning, and has been trapped by the mountains to the west and wind patterns. The thick haze of smog is clearly visible as the murky gray color in this true color satellite image." NASA/NOAA.
Photo credit above: Sage and Coombe Architects. "Sage and Coombe Architects’ trellised canopies perch in front of restored concession stands in Queens, N.Y."
Photo credit above: "Theodore Fujita was born Fujita Tetsuya." University of Chicago.
- When: Saturday, October 26, 2013
- Where: Fine Line Music Cafe
- Address: 318 First Avenue North Minneapolis, MN 55401
- Doors: 8:00pm | 21 +
- Tickets: $6 at door
- Event page: http://thelostwheels.com/the-lost-wheels-rule-for-a-day-cd-release-show/
58 F. high in the Twin Cities Friday.
54 F. average high on October 25.
47 F. high on October 25, 2012.
Historical Data for October 25:
1996: An unusual outbreak of severe occurred across north central Minnesota. Intense low pressure tracking into Minnesota produced blizzard conditions over portions of South Dakota, while further east in Minnesota, unseasonably mild temperatures developed. Temperatures climbed near 70 with dew points in the 50s. 1 to 1 3/4 inch hail and strong winds were reported in Lac Qui Parle, Yellow Medicine, Chippewa, and Swift Counties. These storms produced 12 tornadoes, the largest reported were F2s. Southwest of Alexandria in Douglas County, an F2 tornado with a 9 mile track destroyed several homes. One women sustained broken bones and internal injuries when a portion of her house, with her inside, was flung 200 feet onto the interstate. This tornado also pushed over a 500 pound fuel tank. Tornadoes also touched down in Swift, Kandiyohi, Pope, Stearns, and Isanti Counties.
1985: Indian Summer across Minnesota. Twin Cities hits 70.
* data above courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service.
TODAY: Intervals of sun, windy & cool. Winds: NW 15-25 High: 46
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 30
SUNDAY: More sun, milder again. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 54
MONDAY: Patchy clouds, cooling down. Wake-up: 32. High: 43
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still cooler than average. Wake-up: 26. High: 42
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain developing. Wake-up: 36. High: 55
HALLOWEEN: Mostly cloudy, but drier for Trick-or-Treating. Wake-up: 50. High: 61
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy and colder. Wake-up: 39. High: 50
* photo credit above: Mike Hall.
Climate Change Will Make Colorado's Millenial Rainstorm A Lot More Common. Here's an update from Quartz: "The rainfall that caused massive flooding in Colorado last month was a once-in-a-millennium event, according to a recent study (pdf). And climate change is making those kinds of extreme weather events more common. The impressively named Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has concluded with greater than 90% certainty that the rainfall was millennial in nature. Here’s the chart for one rain gauge in Boulder, Colorado, that was inundated over seven days.."
Photo credit above: "Houses partially submerged last month in Longmont, Colorado." AP/John Wark
Photo credit above: "Elon Musk in the new Tesla Model S high performance electric car in the showroom at Westfield London." Photograph: Sarah Lee for the Guardian.
Photo credit above: "Dead science lives on, thanks to the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change." Scott Beale
Photo credit above: Rob Griffith - AP. "Firefighters control flames during hazard reduction in Bilpin, 46 miles from Sydney, Oct. 23, 2013."
Photo credit: "Jeff Severinghaus, a professor of geosciences at Scripps Institution of Oceanography." — K.C. Alfred.
Photo credit above: Stanley Greene/NOOR/Redux. "Greenland, photographed from a boat navigating the melt where dog sleds used to travel across the ice, October 2009."
Climate Change Cost You The McDonald's Dollar Menu. Quartz has the story - here's the intro: "The McDonald’s “Dollar Menu” is no more—or rather, it will now be the “Dollar Menu & More,” including sandwiches, sides, and snacks that cost up to $2. The new menu, driven by rising prices on commodities, is the product of extensive negotiations between McDonald’s corporate headquarters and their franchisees. Here are some of the trends behind the change.
1). Droughts have driven up the wholesale price of cattle. Since 2011, rising temperatures across the United States have led to drought conditions in cattle-ranching states like Texas and Oklahoma.