Umbrella. Noun. "A device consisting of a circular canopy of cloth on a folding metal frame supported by a central rod, used as protection against rain."
I had to brush cobwebs off my umbrella, and for good reason. The last day with an inch or more of rain was back on August 6. Since then it's been "flash drought" and fickle, sporadic (piddly) rainfall amounts. It's time for a real storm, a jolt of steady rain to replenish dry topsoil and low lake water levels.
The biggest storm in 5 months will track north, pushing waves of rain, even a few embedded T-storms, across the state. Mercifully, the atmosphere will be warm enough for rain. The Dakotas may see a few inches of slushy snow. A tough break for Pierre, where the high was 88F on Monday.
Saturday looks like a good museum/movie day, and any peeks of sun early Sunday will quickly give way to low, lumpy clouds and a chilling breeze. Expect 40s and mostly-dry weather for Sunday's Twin Cities Marathon, but instability showers may pop up by afternoon.
Yes, the timing could be better, but we need the rain. I still don't see a metro frost looking out 8 days, in fact 60s return next week. Hardly a warm front but welcome nonetheless.
October Tornado Reminder. Although rare, tornadoes in Minnesota and Wisconsin have been observed as late as mid-November.
File Photo: 2012 Duluth flood aftermath courtesy of Glen Stubbe, Star Tribune.
Photo credit above: "June 2012's torrential rains devastated landscapes and wiped out the Highway 210 approach to the Thomson Bridge in Jay Cooke State Park, ten miles southwest of Duluth."
Graphic credit above: "Data provided by the Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, with support from the Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Modelling by Richard Millar. Interactive by Duncan Clark."
Temperature projections are based on the idealised climate model of Boucher and Reddy (2009), as used for calculation of warming potentials in IPCC (2013), driven by the IPCC "RCP8.5" high emissions scenario. They are consistent with, but not identical to, to the projections of the IPCC (2013).
Photo credits above: "The photo on the left of Lyell Glacier in Yosemite National Park was taken by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1883; the one on the right was taken by park geologist Greg Stock in late September." (U.S. Geological Survey; Greg Stock)
Climate Change Bringing More Severe Wildfires. Fire season out west is already 78 days longer, on average, than it was 40 years ago. Here's the intro to a story at Risk Management Magazine: "By 2050, wildfire season will be three weeks longer and result in fires that are up to twice as smoky and spread considerably wider, based on calculations by a team of environmental scientists at the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. While many groups have attempted to project the impact of climate change on severe weather events like storms and floods, the SEAS team took its research a step further to examine secondary phenomena that are largely impacted by meteorological factors, such as forest fires and air quality..."
* A large number of news article headlines framed around an alleged global warming "pause" that scientists have dismissed as statistically meaningless and insignificant.
* A British tabloid, The Mail on Sunday, portraying the sixth lowest Artic sea ice level on record as a "rebound" that undermines climate science—a claim that then reverberated in conservative media and even made its way to the halls of Congress..."
Image credit above: "
* more on the possible link between conspiracy theorists and climate denial from Mother Jones.
The World's Best Scientists Agree: On Our Current Path, Global Warming Is Irreversible - And Getting Worse. Here's an excerpt of a good summary of the latest IPCC climate report (AR5) from Quartz:"...Some other important takeaways from the new document:
• Between 1901–2012, “almost the entire globe has experienced surface warming… Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.”
• ”The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia…. It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100.”• ”Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and N2O have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years….Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped...”
Photo credit above: "Brace for more of this." AP/Mike Groll.
IPCC Digested: Just Leave The Fossil Fuels Underground. New Scientist has the article - here's an excerpt: "Merely reducing emissions is not enough. It will slow climate change, but in the end how much the planet warms depends on the overall amount of CO2 we pump out. To have any chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C, we have to limit future emissions to about 500 gigatonnes of CO2. Burning known fossil fuel reserves would release nearly 3000 gigatonnes, and energy companies are currently spending $600 billion trying to find more. The implications of the numbers are staggering. The value of these companies depends on their reserves. If at some point in the future the world gets serious about tackling climate change, these reserves will become worthless. About $4 trillion worth of shares would be wiped out, according to the non-profit Carbon Tracker Initiative. For most of us, that's our pension funds at risk..."
Photo credit above: " .