1.24" precipitation predicted for Wednesday and Wednesday night in Minneapolis-St. Paul. Much of that will probably fall as sleet and snow.
2-6" sleet and snow possible by Wednesday night. Bufkit predicts 6.1" for MSP by Thursday morning.
3" old record for most snow from a single May storm (May 11-12, 1946).
Strike. I'm going on strike. I can't take it anymore.
Record May Snowfall?
One of the 15 meteorologists on my staff has parents who returned from winter hibernation in Scottsdale back in early April, thinking they'd be "out of the woods".
I shouldn't laugh, but I can't help myself.
Three plowable snows and 18" later they are reportedly thinking of moving to Arizona for good. Come to think of it, our freakish un-spring may turn the rest of us us into snowbirds.
The most snow from a single May storm in the Twin Cities? 3" in 1946. Hey, if the weather is crummy let's at least go for a record. More boasting rights!
Here is what I know: Minnesotans lose their stoic sense of humor when it snows on their green lawns. A cold front arrives today; a cold rain likely on Wednesday. Amazingly, by Wednesday night the lowest mile of the atmosphere will be cold enough for snow - rain changes to wet snow Wednesday with a potential for a plowable snowfall of 2-6" for parts of the Twin Cities metro, significantly more over southeastern Minnesota. Good grief.
The same extreme pattern pumping moisture into Minnesota, easing our drought, is also funneling harsh outbreaks of winter chill southward. You can't have one without the other.
If it's any consolation long-range models show 60s, even 70s for the 2013 Fishing Opener.
I mean..what can possibly go wrong?
NAM Solution. I'm not buying it (yet), because it would smash old May snowfall records for the Twin Cities, and temperatures aloft will be close to critical by Wednesday night and Thursday; a degree or two warmer than predicted aloft and we wind up with (mostly) rain. Will we see a slushy coating of an inch or two? Probably. But 3-6"? Not convinced, not yet.
A Very Wet Week. The ECMWF often gets a jump on trends, and then the U.S. models eventually catch up. We'll see if that's the case this week - the European model predicting over 3" liquid by Sunday, with a period of potentially significant snow Thursday and Friday. Spring stages a modest comeback by early next week.
U.S. Models - Not As Wet. The local NWS office is predicting about .80" liquid by Thursday night, but amounts may go higher by the weekend as Gulf moisture surges north, pulled along by a temporarily stationary storm over the Central Plains.
Weather information that supports air travel does not come from the "weather fairy"...
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