Like a pack of cigarettes most 7-Day Outlooks should come with a warning label. Or at least a Confidence Level. Forecast accuracy drops off over time; from 88% for tomorrow to 60% by Day 6.
Some patterns are more volatile than others. When computer models disagree (wildly) confidence goes down and we should share this uncertainty. Then again, slapping more numbers on a page might make it even harder to remember the forecast.
My confidence level is high we'll see mid-70s and evening thunder today, with a stalled storm pumping heavy rain into town the latter half of the week. My confidence level is low trying to predict if it will snow here on Thursday.
What a spring. The jet stream is bucking and looping like a wild beast - more energy and high-speed dips & bulges; ultimately pumping Gulf moisture northward. In the meteorological blink of an eye we've gone from drought to flood in the Mississippi Valley. Fargo expects a flood crest Wednesday; 2-3 feet below 2009's record.
Enjoy today's warmth, evening thunder another signal the atmosphere is shifting gears.
A "cut-off" low stalls over the Plains, keeping us cool & wet Wednesday into next weekend.
It may even snow again. Memorable spring, huh?
Maximum 24 Hour May Snowfalls in the Twin Cities:
3" May 1, 1935
2.8" May 11, 1946
* source: Minnesota Climate Office
Photo credit: Seth Perlman / AP. "Steve Peters uses a make shift bridge to access dry land in Peoria Heights, Ill. The Illinois River crested at 29.35 feet, eclipsing a 70-year record in Peoria."
Photo credit: "A New Norris House: perhaps the most modest building in the AIA's top ten " (Photo: Ken McCown).
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Hawaii residents remained the least likely in the U.S. to say they felt stressed on any given day in 2012, at 32.1%. West Virginia residents, on average, were the most likely to report feeling stress, at 47.1%.
Image above: AP.
Graphic credit above: 398.36 ppm. The very latest CO2 concentrations can be found at The Keeling Curve web site, operated by Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
• Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years. This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.
• As suspected, much of the 'missing heat' Kevin Trenberth previously talked about has been found in the deep oceans. Consistent with the results of Nuccitelli et al. (2012), this study finds that 30% of the ocean warming over the past decade has occurred in the deeper oceans below 700 meters, which they note is unprecedented over at least the past half century..."
Photo credit above: "The campaign suggests climate change has emerged as a serious issue for Obama to pursue in his second term." Photograph: Gideon Mendel/Corbis.