Paul's Bunker-Cast
I've grown a beard, cans of rations and MRE's
piled up nearby, a single lightbulb illuminating my fallout shelter. Did
I cancel the papers? Ugh, I should have paid the bills. Next
apocalypse.
I'm always wary of conspiracy theories, whether
it relates to the Mayan calendar or climate change. Maybe it's in our
DNA to fixate on wild rumors. Like bad reality TV - it helps us
(temporarily) forget our own issues.
With any luck you're reading this column, and life (warts and all) goes on - all of us swept up in The Holiday Swirl.
Iowa and Wisconsin are digging out from the
biggest storm in 3 years. Winds ease today, giving road crews a chance
to excavate some 2-4 foot drifts. If you can delay your trek across I-94
or I-35 until tomorrow you'll have less of a white-knuckle drive.
Good news for travelers: no big storms are
brewing into New Year's Day. The sun comes out today; highs stuck in the
teens and 20s the next 8-10 days. Old Man Winter may pull his punch a
little: it doesn't look as numbing for early January; maybe a night or
two near zero in the metro. OK.
In today's weather blog: 2012 will be the second
costliest year for weather disasters in the USA; second only to 2005.
Details below.
Mad-Town Lives Up To Its Name. Matt Porcelli sent in
this photo of the snowy craziness in Madison, Wisconsin. At one point
Thursday heavy snow was accompanied by thunder and lightning. It must
have looked like the (snowy) End of the World.
Living On The Edge. The Twin Cities National Weather Service has an
interactive map
showing snowfall amounts, about 1-2" over the southern and eastern
suburbs, very little now west of I-35 in the metro area. Red Wing picked
up 3" with 7" from Lake City to Winona.
Snowy End Of The World? 19.5" in Middleton, Dane
County - Madison area, winners of the coveted Golden Snow Shovel Award.
This was as of 8 pm yesterday - my gut is that some lucky towns will
wind up with 20-22" by the time flakes wind down this morning.
Impressive. Map above courtesy of the
Madison office of the NWS.
Where's The Hot Tub? Thanks to Shannon Kreuziger, who snapped this photo of (2 feet?) of snow near Portage, Wisconsin.
Good Grilling Weather. Emily Rice snapped this photo in Madison Thursday. Perfect weather for steaks and burgers!
Snowy Panorama. Katelynn Matheny took this photo
near Madison Thursday morning, just as the heaviest snow was moving in.
Thanks to WeatherNation TV for providing all the pics.
2012: Second Costliest Year For Weather Disasters? Between
the drought (worst since 1956 nationwide) and "Sandy" damage should
easily go over $100 billion. Here's an excerpt from
USA Today: "
Led
by the devastation from Hurricane Sandy and the Midwest drought, 2012
will likely be the second-costliest year for weather and climate
disasters on record, according to data released today by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The costliest year for damages
in the USA was 2005, when four hurricanes lashed the nation, including
Katrina. The USA has endured 11 separate weather and climate disasters
so far this year that led to damages of at least $1 billion, NOAA
reported today. This follows 2011, when an all-time record of 14
separate billion-dollar disasters were reported..."
Photo credit above: "
The Casino Pier's wrecked Jet Star
roller coaster in Seaside Heights, N.J., Nov. 28, 2012. A month after
Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc along the Jersey Shore, the area is slowly
starting to recover." (Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times)
349 Americans lost their lives due to extreme weather so far in 2012, 131 of them in Hurricane Sandy. Source: NOAA.
Duluth-Superior Ski Hills Seed Clouds With Snow. I've seen this phenomenon show up in the metro area, when atmospheric conditions are ideal.
The Duluth News Tribune has more details: "...
He’s
not certain exactly what happens, but Packingham said the snowfall is
not simply snow from the snowmaking machines blowing into town.
Conditions had to be just right; the temperature at about 20 degrees
and a light southwesterly wind, he said. Too much wind or temperatures
too warm or too cold and the particles wouldn’t have made it up to the
clouds. Packingham said he thinks tiny particles from the snowmaking
machines drifted up into low-hanging clouds, in effect seeding the
clouds, spurring snowfall downwind of the ski hills for more than a
mile. That’s farther than falling snow can blow from those machines, he
said..."
Hey - You Think This Is Fun? That's one brave Corgi - Emily Rice snapped this pic in Madison yesterday. No, her dog was not amused.
Climate Stories....
Image courtesy of
retronaut.com.
2012: Another Record-Setter, Fits Climate Forecasts.
Maybe the professional deniers aren't looking at the same data I am -
we've had 2 years of some of the most extreme weather ever recorded, not
just in the USA but worldwide. Here's a summary of the atmospheric
craziness from
AP: "...
This
past year's weather was deadly, costly and record-breaking everywhere —
but especially in the United States. If that sounds familiar, it
should. The previous year also was one for the record books. "We've had
two years now of some angry events," said Deke Arndt, U.S. National
Climatic Data Center monitoring chief. "I'm hoping that 2013 is really
boring." In 2012 many of the warnings scientists have made about global
warming went from dry studies in scientific journals to real-life video
played before our eyes: Record melting of the ice in the Arctic Ocean.
U.S. cities baking at 95 degrees or hotter. Widespread drought.
Flooding. Storm surge inundating swaths of New York City..."
Map: NOAA, National Climatic Data Center.
Goodbye New York, Hello Minneapolis. I've gone on
record speculating that climate change will probably wind up being a
good thing, overall, for my home state of Minnesota. We have amazing
water resources, and most of the computer models show the worst drying
taking place south and west of Minneapolis - St. Paul. That's the one
big wild card: will we wind up wetter or drier? Here's an interesting
video clip from
The Economist: "
WILL
parts of Manhattan be left by people seeking higher, dryer ground? In
the aftermath of another UN climate conference, our correspondents
discuss migration and adaptation."
WSJ's "Climate Dynamite" Is A Dud. I like the Wall
Street Journal. I'm a subscriber, in fact. But when it comes to climate
change and their editorial pages they're seriously out to lunch by not
acknowledging the science. Here's a review of a recent WSJ post that
diminished the perceived risk caused by a warming planet, from
Media Matters: "
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Matt Ridley attempted
to cast doubt on the severity of manmade climate change, arguing that
future warming will be modest and "good" for the planet. But experts
say the author flubbed the science, and continue to project that the
earth will warm between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius (or about 3.5 to 8
degrees Fahrenheit), unless mitigating action is taken. Ridley's
argument goes something like this: climate models are "unproven."
Therefore, it is now possible to rely solely on "observations" -- which
show that temperatures are "no higher than they were 16 years ago"--to
determine that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the end of
the century would cause modest warming. Further, that amount of warming
would be a "net good." Putting aside the fact that Ridley cites a
"semiretired successful financier" and an unnamed scientist to support
his claims, his arguments are not well-founded. Or, as John Abraham, an IPCC reviewer and the director of the Climate Science Rapid Response Team,
put it to Media Matters: the column "has such elementary errors in it
that [it] casts doubt on the author's understanding of any aspects of
climate change....."
Error-Riddled Matt Ridley Piece Lowballs Climate Change, Discredits Wall Street Journal. World Faces 10F Warming. Here's another retort to the WSJ "story" from Joe Romm at
Think Progress: "
Every
major projection of future warming makes clear that if we keep
listening to the falsehoods of the anti-science crowd and keep taking no
serious action to reduce carbon pollution we face catastrophic 9°F to
11°F [5°C to 6°C] warming over most of the U.S. (see literature review here). The Wall Street Journal, however, has published a piece,
“Cooling Down the Fears of Climate Change,” that (falsely) asserts
observations suggest global warming will be so low as to “be
benificial.” This risible piece by Matt Ridley is so riddled with basic
math and science errors it raises the question of how the Journal can
possibly maintain its reputation as a credible source of news and
financial analysis. Ridley and the Journal apparently don’t know the
difference between water vapor and clouds. They don’t understand the
basic concept of climate sensitivity. And they can’t do simple math.
Naturally, the climate deniers have embraced this nonsense and spread
it across the internet..."
Graphic credit: "
Projected warming even with (an unlikely) low climate sensitivity of between 1.5°C and 2.0°C from Michael Ring et al 2012. A WSJ op-ed that cites this work absurdly concludes “Evidence points to a further rise of just 1°C by 2100.” Not even close."
Notice Any Trends? Many people are fixated on the
aerial coverage of ice, when volume may be a better determination of
what's really going on at the top of the world. The graphs above show
volume
of Arctic Ice, which has dropped an estimated 80% in recent years. We
set a record minimum for Arctic ice in September of this year; the
previous 6 years have seen the lowest ice levels ever observed. 2013
predictions show a projected decrease of 2,000 cubic kilometers of ice.
Source
here.
How Bad Will Climate Change Get For The Eastern U.S.? Look At These Crazy Maps. Here's an excerpt from a story at
theatlanticcities.com: "...
This latest data comes from a recent study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters,
which used a high-resolution climate modeling system to project bad
news down to an impressively local level, examining what we might see
in the 20 largest cities east of the Mississippi come the late 2050s.
By then, researchers from the University of Tennessee at Knoxville have
calculated, heat waves in New York City could be 3.58 degrees Celsius
hotter in intensity than they are now, with the average one lasting
nearly two days longer (these projections are compared to a baseline of
climate data between 2001 and 2004). Cleveland has it the worst, with a
heat wave temperature increase of 3.71 degrees Celsius, followed by
Philadelphia (3.69). The researchers project that heat waves will grow
worse particularly across the Northeast and Midwest, bringing the North
and South to roughly equal hot-weather fates..."
Link Found Between Global Warming And Volcanic Activity. This one made me do a triple-take; here's an excerpt from
gizmag.com: "
It’s
no secret that volcanic eruptions can cool the planet by spewing ash
and droplets of sulfuric acid into the atmosphere that obscure the sun.
Now researchers at Germany’s GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean
Research Kiel and Harvard University have found evidence that suggest
the reverse could also be true. The researchers have discovered a strong
historical link between global temperature increases and increases in
volcanic activity..."
Photo credit above: "
Researchers have discovered a strong historical link between global temperature increases and increases in volcanic activity." (Photo:
Shutterstock)
Global Warming Experts Should Think More About The Cold War. Here's an excerpt of a thought-provoking article from
Bloomberg.com: "
Every
year the United Nations convenes diplomats from more than 190 nations
to negotiate a climate change treaty, and in many years negotiators go
home with little more than the promise of another annual meeting. After
the failure of the 18th such event earlier this month in Doha,
diplomats and organizers should focus less on the UN exercise than on
combing history for a more suitable model. They might find at least
three lessons from the history of arms control..."
A 10 Year Old's Reflections On Global Warming. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Mother Nature Network: "
A
few weeks ago, my daughter was assigned to write an essay for her
fourth-grade class about an issue that she felt was worth speaking up
about. The topic she chose was global warming. As the daughter of a
greenie, this was not surprising to me. She has been hearing about
environmental issues in general since the first time I read "The Lorax"
to her as an infant. Still, contrary to what some might think, I try
not to harp on eco-issues too much at home. My kids are taught to
recycle and turn off the faucet while brushing their teeth. They know
littering is a no-no. But we have never before sat down and had a frank
conversation about global warming. So what did surprise me about her
essay was her understanding of the issue and the importance of doing
something about it...."
