June 17, 2010: NOAA reports "The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurred with 48 tornadoes across the state, and set the stage for a record breaking tornado year that finished with 113 tornadoes statewide. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota on this day. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest number since July 5, 1978." It's more than a little ironic that another significant tornado outbreak is possible later today, two years later to the day.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON IN ERN SD SHOW MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY REACHING 50 TO 55 KT BY EARLY EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF ABERDEEN AT 00Z/MON SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 700 METERS SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENT...A LINE OF STORMS COULD ORGANIZE ACROSS SRN MN WITH DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE STRONG SHEAR AND WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP THE TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE LINE COULD MOVE ESEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN IA BY LATE IN THE EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MCS MAINLY DUE TO WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS.
Photo credit above: "Residents of Cannon Falls, MInn. survey the damage to Minnieska Park and a swollen Cannon River in Cannon Falls, Minn. Friday morning June 15, 2012 following over night rains that dumped over 8 inches of rain on the area causing many area rivers to overflow their banks. (AP Photo/The Rochester Post-Bulletin, Jerry Olson)."
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"I took this picture last Saturday in Buffalo, MN. I was facing basically east, and I took the photo at around sunset. I was wondering if there was some name for this phenomenon. I hadn’t seen it before."
Tornado Threat Later Today
"A father carries pictures where his money used to be."
My father liked to remind me "once you have all the information the decision is easy." Easier said than done. But every morning I'd stagger down to the breakfast table, and there'd be a fresh pile of newspaper and magazine clippings....weather stories.... waiting for me. Now he sends me links to cool weather articles via e-mail. He's still my best clipping service.
Give dad extra hugs today.
The older I get the less I take for granted. Like a remarkable pop...or a sunny Sunday.
Nothing says Thanks Dad better than SPF 50 sunscreen. Yesterday's clouds and showers are sweeping east. A well-timed surge of drier air will keep us sunny today, highs in the low 80s as dew points drop back into the comfortable 50s. Today may restore your faith in June.
The approach of hot, stuffy air sets off more rounds of T-storms tonight, Monday and Tuesday (more tropical deluges, even a few severe storms). The best chance of heavy rain: tonight and early Monday, but a few severe storms are possible late Monday and Tuesday as squall lines fire along a stalled frontal boundary.
SPC predicts a "moderate risk" of severe storms today, which happens maybe 10-15 times a year - meaning a much h igher threat of "supercell" thunderstorms capable of large, violent, long-track tornadoes (especially southwestern Minnesota). There will be watches and warnings later today, with the best chance of violent storms south/west of the Minnesota River. By the time the squall line reaches MSP (later tonight) it may be more of a straight-line wind event.
The European, ECMWF, model brings some relief into Minnesota by late week, highs in the upper 70s from Thursday into Saturday.
The fishing's good up here on Pelican Lake, where I saw savvy anglers checking radar on iPhones Saturday. I love it when armchair meteorologists tell me when it's time to head for shore!
Photo credit above: "A Mountain Pine Beetle is seen during the examination of trees in the White River National Forest near Vail, Colorado." (AP)