Mid-September Night's Dream
the Autumnal Equinox quickly approaching, many across the nation are
probably seeing more sunrises and sunsets as daylight hours are
dwindling fast. This is about the time of year when we lose daylight at
its fastest pace. Thanks to the National Weather Service out of
Columbia, SC for the Saturday sunrise picture below.
Length of Day
is an interesting graph. Ever wondered how the length of the day
changes at your latitude over the course of the year? See the graph
below (courtesy osu.edu). Note where all the lines intersect, those are
the Equinoxes. We are quickly approaching the Autumnal Equinox and that
is the date at which there is equal day and equal night around the
Frosty Great Lakes
dramatic change in the length of day as of late, colder air is starting
to build across the far north. Waves of this cooler air have been
making more frequent visits to the lower 48 and it won't be long before
the growing season is over. Take a look at the frosty picture below from
the National Weather Service out of Detroit, MI where they had some
patchy frost on Saturday morning.
Cold Air Pocket
at the temperature map below (minus actual temperature values); note
the big blob of blue over the Great Lakes Region on Saturday morning.
This fall-like airmass settled in post front, which was responsible for
several severe weather reports earlier this week in the Northeast. The
good news for folks in the Northeast is that the cooler, drier air mass
will stick around through the rest of the weekend. No more hot, sticky
and stormy weather!
The cooler weather this
weekend was perfect football weather for the eastern half of the nation.
Thanks to Paul Douglas for the picture below who attended the Penn
State vs. UCF Knights game on Saturday evening. The Nittany Lions
couldn't quite come back, but they made it interesting at the end. 34-31
in favor of the Knights.
Say So Long to the Summer Weather
who aren't fans of the summer stickies and especially excited about
this continued cool weather this weekend. Those who would rather have
summer-like weather got their fill last week as temperatures soared to
10° to 20° above their normal mid-September values. The weather changed
late last week as showers and severe thunderstorms blasted through along
the leading edge of cooler weather we're enjoying now. Take a look at
one of the storms that rolled through New York late last week. Thanks to
the National Weather Service out of New York, NY for the picture below
which shows a shelf cloud rolling over the Long Island Sound.
Tornado Drought of 2013 Continues...
to the National Weather Service out of Corpus Christie via Lesllie
Gilliam for the image below near Mustang Island. This is about as good
as it gets lately with tornadic activity. Climatologically speaking,
this isn't typically a large tornado producing time of the year, that
generally occurs in the spring (May averages 276 across the nation).
However, it concintues the trend of a much below average year for
isn't typically a big tornado producing month, but according to the
NOAA's NCDC, the 1991-2010 average number of national tornadoes in
September is 74 (see image below). So far this year, there have only
been 3 PRELIMINARY tornado reports; 1 in Illinois on the 1st, 1 in
Minnesota on 11th and 1 in Ohio on the 12th. The image below shows the
average number of tornadoes in September by state.
Compare Avgerage May Tornadoes
is typically the peak of tornado season across the nation. According to
NOAA's NCDC, the 1991-2010 average is 276. The image below shows the
average number of tornadoes in May by State.
Average U.S. Tornadoes by Month
Here's the 1991-2010 U.S. tornado average by month.
Tornado Drought of 2013
only are we well below normal for tornadoes so far this year, but
according to NOAA's SPC, this is the lowest number of tornado reports
that we've seen since 2005! The image below shows the number of
PRELIMINARY tornado reports for the year (thru Sept. 13), which is only
727. The 2005-2012 average thru that date is 1,295. Interestingly, last
year, there were 1,116 tornado reports and 1,897 reports in 2011.
2013: The Year of Flooding?
though our tornado stats this year are below average, the weather has
been able to take the national spotlight from time to time. However,
flooding seems to have taken center stage a few more times than other
big weather so far this year. One of the more recent stories that
unfolded earlier this week was the major and deadly flooding along the
Front Range of the Rockies and espeically in northcentral Colorado. The
pictures and video that continue to emerge from the area are quite
astounding! The pictures below are from a good friend of mine who was
back in Colorado for a wedding as the heavy rain moved in. This is a
golf course that he golfed at frequently when he lived there.
Deadly Colorado Flooding
flooding in Colorado is truely astounding. With multiple fatalities and
still several people missing or unaccounted for, thoughts and prayers
for everyone dealing with this increadible event. My hope is that the
loss of life doesn't rise and further than it already has... Here's the
latest from CNN.com:
"The mission for emergency responders
in northern Colorado Saturday: "To bring order to a chaotic situation,"
as an incident commander put it. Waters receded some in the
flood-devastated areas, but the rains were expected to fall heavy once
again over the weekend. At least four people have been killed and 172
are unaccounted for, officials say. The number of missing peaked at 218
and is expected to continue to shrink."
Read the full story HERE:
(Photo courtesy: CNN via Michael Ciaglo/Colorado Spring Gazette)
7 day radar estimated rainfall is unreal. Keep in mind that most of
this rain fell with a 24 to 48 hour window late last week. Based on the
map below, there are a number of locations that have seen 10" to 15"+
are some incredible stats that, colorado resident, Matt Kelsch, put
together. Matt is the "official" Boulder, CO record keeper:
Data Collected Friday...
Total rainfall since Monday afternoon: 14.62 inches
Biggest calendar-day total: 9.08 inches on September 12th.
Monthly total: 14.65 inches.
Annual total: 27.61 inches.
Previous calendar day record: 4.80 inches (July 31, 1919).
Previous monthly total: 9.59 inches (May 1995).
record: 29.93 inches in 1995 (if we have roughly 50% of average
precipitation for the rest of the year, we will reach this).
Here are some other rainfall tallies that were put together by
offensive coordinator (very talented weather producer D.J. Kayser:
2013 Colorado Flooding Resources
The Denver Post has put together a nice interactive map of flooding resources, which can be viewed HERE:
Some of the news stories linked on that interactive map are crazy!
Record River Levels
rainfall has also led to record river levels! Take a look at this river
gauge along the Big Thompson River, which has been running at record
levels since late Thursday night!
another one along the South Platte River near Kersey, which reached
reached record stage midday Friday and peaked early Saturday morning
7ft. above the previous record stage! Note how rapid these increases
are... This is part of the reason why flash flooding is so deadly! The
rapid and unexpected rise in water levels can make your actions/decions a
life or death situation!
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Keep up to date with all the latest weather information out of the Denver/Boulder, CO region from the NWS HERE:
More Rain in the Forecast
there's more rain in the forecast over the next few days. According to
NOAA's HPC 3 day rainfall, there could be an additional 1" to 2" of rain
with localized heaiver amounts.
Flooding Down in Texas?
a look at that heavy blob of moisture in the Deep South, especially in
southern Texas! That's in response to our tropical system Ingrid, which
is expected to send waves of heavy rain into the region through next
week. However, the heaviest rainfall over the next 7 days is expected to
fall mainly in northeastern Mexico. According to NOAA HPC 7day
rainfall, there could be 10"+ in northeastern Mexico! Flooding certianly
will be an issue over the coming days as Ingrid moves in.
is going to be an interesting storm to watch as it wobbles around the
Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico over the next couple/few days. The
forecast track has it intensifying in the warm waters before making
landfall in northeastern Mexico by early week.
For the latest information and track, see more from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) HERE:
resolution weather models also suggests a Mexico landfall at some point
early next week. The image below shows the storm making landfall late
Sunday night/early Monday morning in Mexico.
Much Needed Texas Rain
Texas could get quite a soaking over the next few days even with Ingrid
to make an expected landfall over Mexico. Waves of rain over the next
few days could bring significant rainfall to some areas.
systems tend to be drought busters and Ingrid could certainly be a very
beneficial system if the current trend holds. Of course with has much
rain as there is in the forecast, flooding may be a concern, but first
things first... Take look at the U.S. Drought Monitor over the state of
Texas and especially across the southern part of the state where extreme
and exceptional drought conditions are in place. I expect to see some
sort of a dent in this drought after all is said and done with Ingrid.
Thanks for checking in, enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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