Orange Cone Alert
All this road construction almost makes me look forward to winter.
I know - our highways don't repair themselves. MnDOT crews have a job to do, and they do it very well. Yesterday a quick 15 minute drive turned into an epic, 2-hour scavenger hunt. At least the sun was out.
When it comes to all things atmospheric I take NOTHING for granted. On September 24, 1985 half an inch of snow cheered up Twin Cities residents. Nearly 2 inches fell on September 26, 1942. No, I don't take 70s and low 80s in late September for granted.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a milder than average October for Minnesota and much of the USA. Spring was chilly, snowy and wet - maybe autumn will balance things out.
I don't see any frost risk for the Twin Cities metro looking out thru October 10.
Temperatures warm into Friday (low 80s!) before an eastbound cool front sparks showers and T-storms on Saturday. Have a Plan B. Skies clear Sunday with highs in the upper 60s, closer to average.
The same tropical swirl responsible for flooding rains over Florida may spin up into a formidable Nor'easter, soaking New England early next week.
While we enjoy the best week of autumn.
Shades Of Summer. NAM predicted highs nudge 80F in the Twin Cities, maybe some mid to upper 80s over southern Minnesota, while temperatures hold in the 50s and 60s north and west of Alexandria and Brainerd. Not bad for late September. Map above: Ham Weather.
Mild Bias Continues. 80F or beyond Friday, a few more 70s the first half of next week? Not too shabby considering the sun is as high in the sky as it was in mid-March. ECMWF guidance shows only a small chance of (light) showers Saturday, again early Tuesday.
When In A Drought - Don't Predict Rain. Latest models show only light showers, possibly less than .10 or .20" rain late Friday into Saturday as a (slightly) cooler front approaches. Graphic: Iowa State.
NAM Solution. The 84-hour NAM shows a potentially significant storm brewing over the Southeast, while showers and T-storms push across the northern Rockies - most of the USA dry into Friday. Animation: Ham Weather.
Another "Hybrid" Nor'Easter? It's still early, but the same model that gave us an 8 day jump on "Sandy" last October is suggesting a robust East Coast storm early next week, possibly a mash-up of extra-tropical low pressure system and tropical storm, spiked with extra levels of moisture. Florida has seen soaking rains, and this tropical-depression-like system may mutate into something more as it hooks toward New England late Sunday and Monday. More details in today's edition of Climate Matters: "WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas shows what some of the models are hinting at for the northeast. Nothing as bad as Sandy, but it is looking like a "hybrid storm" that we are beginning to see."
Significant Coastal Storm? Here is the ECMWF solution, valid midday Monday, showing a deep area of low pressure capable of some level of coastal flooding and potential beach erosion - heaviest rains from Long Island into coastal New England. We'll see. Graphic: WSI.
Nebraska Is Diverting Flood Water From Colorado. Details from KWGN-TV; here's the intro: "The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, local natural resources districts, and irrigation districts in the Platte River Basin have taken steps to divert floodwaters out of the river as they moved into Nebraska from Colorado. These efforts consisted of developing agreements and coordinating the timing of the diversions of this flow in an attempt to attenuate the peak flood flows. The diversion of these floodwaters will have the added benefit of recharging the aquifer as these waters seep into the ground beneath the canals and lakes along the South Platte, North Platte, and Platte Rivers..."
* Record June flooding in Alberta, Canada damage toll reaches $6 billion (Canadian). Details from Bloomberg.
Photo credit above: Alejandrino Gonzalez/The Associated Press. "A car lays buried in mud after flooding triggered by Tropical Storm Manuel as residents try to clean up their neighborhood in Chilpancingo, Mexico, on Thursday. Manuel, the same storm that devastated Acapulco, gained hurricane force and rolled into the northern state of Sinaloa on Thursday before starting to weaken."
Which Cities Are Most At Risk For A Natural Disaster? This is one Top 10 List you don't want to be on, as explained at earthsky.org; here's a clip: "Swiss Re – the world’s second-largest reinsurance company, with headquarters in Zurich – has released results of a new study that looks at the human and economic risks from natural disasters faced by over 600 cities around the globe. The report is called Mind the risk: A global ranking of cities under threat from natural disasters, and it’s based on Swiss Re’s risk models and detailed available hazard data. Los Angeles is the only city in the U.S. that makes the top 10 list for “most people potentially affected” (aggregate risk of five perils including earthquakes, tsunamis, storms, storm surge and river flooding). After all, it has a large and densely packed population, located along the earthquake-prone Ring of Fire, on a coast. When you look at “working days lost,” however, San Francisco, New York, Paris and Amsterdam-Rotterdam also make the top 10 list..." (Image above: Swiss Re).
* the full 36 page PDF from Swiss Re is here.
Typhoon, Hurricane Or Cyclone: What's The Difference? Here's an excerpt of a good explainer from National Geographic: "...If you've never lived in Asia, you might be wondering what it feels like to experience a typhoon. But if you've ever survived a hurricane or cyclone, you already know the answer. That's because hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are all the same weather phenomenon. Scientists just call these storms different things depending on where they occur. In the Atlantic and northern Pacific, the storms are called "hurricanes," after the Caribbean god of evil, named Hurrican. In the northwestern Pacific, the same powerful storms are called "typhoons." In the southeastern Indian Ocean and southwestern Pacific, they are called "severe tropical cyclones..."
New Financial Umbrellas Keep Companies Dry When It Rains On Their Earnings. When in doubt blame the weather, right? But now companies can hedge their bets against inclement, potentially disrupting weather. Here is an excerpt from an interesting story at Quartz: "It has become more widely accepted that volatile weather is having an increased impact on corporate performance in a variety of global industries from retail and entertainment to agriculture and energy. For example, recent retail and beverage earnings reports from Zara, Target, and Coca-Cola highlight cold and rainy weather as two key factors that contributed to decreased customer demand for springtime goods. More broadly, a study from the National Center of Atmospheric Research estimates that in the US alone, economic activity can swing plus or minus $240 billion annually due to routine (as opposed to catastrophic) weather variability, depending upon whether or not the observed weather was favorable for business operations. However, despite the clear relationship between weather and profits, the majority of weather-exposed businesses continue to retain weather risk rather than mitigate it...."
Photo credit above: "
We first brought you OpenSignal’s crowdsourced weather data from Weather Signal in May, but since then, the team have discovered that there was a correlation between your phone’s battery and the weather outside. It’s not black magic after all!..."
All I Want For Christmas Is A Shiny, New....Jetpack? Move over Buck Rogers - science fiction becomes reality (if the price is right and you have an extra 100K in your pockets). Details from Time Magazine: "...It doesn’t look much like a jetpack, does it? More like some far flung future mini-jet plane, the rounded nose pointed skyward, twin turbine-like 200hp engines strapped to either side, and you secured below, hanging out like the payload. It’s relatively small (and thus easy to deploy if you need to get in and out of small spaces), has an auto-hover feature, and includes both flotation capabilities and a ballistic recovery parachute that auto-deploys if the engines go kaput. It’ll probably cruise at 35 m.p.h. (with a top speed around 45 m.p.h.) and be able to travel a little under 20 miles (or 30 minutes) a shot..."
Photo credit above: Martin Aircraft.Climate Stories....
What 95% Certainty Of Warming Means To Scientists. Here's a clip from an AP story at ABC News: "Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill. They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy or that dioxin in Superfund sites is dangerous. They'll even put a number on how certain they are about climate change. But that number isn't 100 percent. It's 95 percent. And for some non-scientists, that's just not good enough..."
Graphic credit: 2000-2010 global temperature anomalies (compared to 1951-1980 averages) courtesy of WMO, The World Meteorological Organization.
Photo credit: "A new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, its first in six years, will be released Friday with the unequivocal conclusion that human beings are altering the climate."
Photo credit above: Gene Blevins/Reuters. "Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in the eastern and central United States."
Photo credit above: "Is Climate Change to Blame? Although it is still relatively young, practitioners in the field of attribution science are looking at the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events such as the recent Colorado flooding." Image: Nurpu/Flickr.
Graph above: Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor.
Image credit above: "During boreal summer, Earth's tropicla rain belt migrates north. A similar but prolonged shift could happen if the north continues to heat faster than the south, disrupting global rainfall patterns." Credit: Mats Halldin.
- According to the theory of gravity, objects should fall to the Earth’ surface.
- That bird in the sky remains there, without falling.
- Theory of gravity is wrong.
- According to AGW, CO2 controls the climate.
- For the past 10 years, global temperature remained more or less steady whereas CO2 levels went up.
- AGW theory is wrong..."
Photo credit above: "The former Irish president and UN high commissioner, Mary Robinson, is to spearhead a new international push aimed at breaking the climate talks deadlock and silencing sceptics." Photograph: Martin Argles for the Guardian.