A long range weather forecast is more of a horoscope than a credible prediction to be taken seriously. The skill just isn't there yet.
Case in point: in the spring I predicted summer would be a bit cooler & stormier than average. Hit the buzzer Paul - you don't even get the parting gifts. I thought the cool, wet bias obvious in April might linger into much of summer, but Mother Nature had other plans.
National Weather Service cooling degree data shows we've spent 28 percent more than average cooling our homes since June 1. And severe storms? SPC data shows only 9 tornadoes this year in Minnesota, well below average.
Remind me to stick to the 7-Day, which is challenging enough. Moral of the story: take any winter outlooks with a boulder-size grain of salt. Weather is chaos, and a 6-month prediction is a joke.
We cool off into the 80s today, but by the end of the week there will be no doubt in your mind that it's September: dew points in the 40s, a risk of a light jacket at the bus stop by Friday morning? The best chance of rain? Next Sunday. But we may have to wait until October to get the moisture we need to replenish dusty topsoil.
Minnesota's drought will probably get worse before it gets better.
Hope I'm wrong about that one too.
* more details on the 800-acre Morgan Fire from NBC News.
Map credit above: "A model predicted the tsunami wave height from a Jan. 8, 1817, earthquake offshore South Carolina. The earthquake's magnitude was estimated at 7.4 from newspaper accounts. Credit: USGS.
- Vertigo (Alfred Hitchcock, 1958)
- Citizen Kane (Orson Welles, 1941)
- Tokyo Story (Yasujirô Ozu, 1953).......
A Climate Alarm, Too Muted For Some. Will the next IPCC Climate Update err on the side of ultra-conservative projections of temperature and sea level rise? The New York Time's Justin Gillis has a video clip and article; here's an excerpt: "This month, the world will get a new report from a United Nations panel about the science of climate change. Scientists will soon meet in Stockholm to put the finishing touches on the document, and behind the scenes, two big fights are brewing. In one case, we have a lot of mainstream science that says if human society keeps burning fossil fuels with abandon, considerable land ice could melt and the ocean could rise as much as three feet by the year 2100. We have some outlier science that says the problem could be quite a bit worse than that, with a maximum rise exceeding five feet. The drafters of the report went with the lower numbers, choosing to treat the outlier science as not very credible..."
Video clip credit above: "Human Hands in a Changing Climate: The Times's Justin Gillis talks about what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release in their report later this month."
Long term, they're probably in trouble.
Here's the New York Times' Diane Cardwell quoting Clark Gellings of the Electric Power Research Institute, a utility industry association: "We did not get in front of this disruption...It may be too late."And earlier this year, Bloomberg's Chris Martin and Noreen S. Malik quoted the CEO of Duke Energy, the largest utility owner in the country, that solar was truly disruptive. "It is obviously a potential threat to us over the long term,” said Jim Rogers, chairman and chief executive officer of Duke Energy Corp. (DUK), the largest U.S. utility owner..."