WeatherNation Headlines: September 2013

Monday, September 30, 2013

Flooding and Rare Seattle Tornado Pacific Northwest - Biggest Midwestern Storm In 5 Months Brewing

Biggest Upper Midwest Storm In 5 Months? The animation above shows predicted air pressure and 10 meter wind speeds into Tuesday morning of next week. Watch a major storm spin up over the Upper Midwest by late week, some 30-50 mph winds possible over the Dakotas. Loop: NOAA GFS data and Ham Weather.

Shifting Gears

Yes, our September weather was phenomenal, in spite of a reinvigorated statewide drought. But I'm finally seeing encouraging signs & trends on the weather maps.

The shift from summer to winter, with larger temperature swings in play, tends to brew up much more significant storms capable of heavier, steadier, widespread rains.

Summer T-storms are notoriously fickle. One farm gets soaked, while 5 miles up the road the sun is out and neighbors wonder what happened to that "70 percent chance of rain"? T-storms are 5-10 miles wide; if you're lucky a line of storms will soak everyone.

But autumn storms produce "stratiform" rain, 300-800 mile wide smears of steady rain, the kind of moisture we need to replenish thirsty fields & lawns.

Late week weather will range from 80s over Iowa to snow over the Black Hills, spinning up an impressive storm capable of significant rain, especially northern and western Minnesota. 70s spill over into Wednesday, when T-storms may bubble up by late in the day. Heavier rains, a few waves of moisture, push across Minnesota Thursday into Saturday with 1-2 inch rains.

The sun peeks out for marathon runners Sunday as we slide into a MUCH cooler pattern.

A Real Storm? Yes, a full-latitude cyclone is brewing, drawing on a 40-50 degree temperature gradient and powerful jet stream winds carving out an impressive trough of low pressure, pulling moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. The local Twin Cities NWS office is predicting 1" of rain by Thursday morning (Thursday probably the wettest day), but models keep showery rains (and gusty winds) into Saturday. Graph: Iowa State.

October Alert. It will feel more like early September out there again today and Wednesday, but a powerful storm spinning up over the Upper Midwest will pull chilly air south - temperatures over the Red River Valley marginally chilly enough for flurries by late Friday. Thursday and Friday appear to be the wettest days of the week. Highs may not climb much above 50F in the metro by Saturday and Sunday, but some moderation is likely next week. ECMWF guidance above in Celsius.

October Preview. We get off to a chilly start Friday into Sunday with highs dipping into the 50s (40s up north) but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a milder than average month from Minnesoeta eastward to the Great Lakes and New England, a mild bias for the Southwest as well.

"Extraordinary" Pacific Storms Shatter Records In Northwest; Tornado Near Seattle. There's a headline you don't see very often - meteorologist Jason Samenow has the details at The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang; here's the intro: "Since Saturday, a series of storms has battered the Pacific Northwest bringing record rainfall, damaging winds and, today, a rare September tornado near Seattle. The storminess has been embedded within what’s described as “an atmospheric river” – where a long ribbon of deep moisture streams across the Pacific. The National Weather Service calls today’s storm “extraordinary for late September” and “much more like a November storm”....

Image credit above: "Water vapor image of storm." (Cliff Mass Weather Blog).

Is Living With Extreme Wildfires The New Normal? NPR tackles the subject - here's an excerpt of a recent story: "It has been a deadly year for the people who fight wildfires. In total, 32 people have lost their lives fighting fires in 2013; the highest number in nearly 20 years, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Just one incident accounts for most of those deaths, the Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona. In June, the blaze blasted through a firefighting crew known as the Granite Mountain Hotshots; 19 of the 20 men died. As people move farther into wildland areas and climate change turns landscapes into tinder, experts say the wildfire danger around the country will likely only grow. But there may be a lesson to learn from how the U.S. stifled an earlier fire crisis in urban settings.."

Photo credit above: "A wildfire in burns Prescott, Ariz., on June 18. The fire would eventually take the lives of 19 firefighters in an area near Yarnell." Todd Tamcsin/AP Photo/American Red Cross.

Premature Mortality Due To Air Pollution. We take clean air for granted - but we shouldn't. Here's an excerpt of an article at NASA's Earth Observatory: "Occasionally, short-term meteorological conditions merge with ongoing human emissions to produce extreme outbreaks of air pollution. In January 2013, a blanket of industrial pollution enveloped northeastern China. In June 2013, smoke from agricultural fires in Sumatra engulfed Singapore. In most cases, the most toxic pollution lingers for a few days or even weeks, bringing increases in respiratory and cardiac health problems at hospitals. Eventually the weather breaks, the air clears, and memories of foul air begin to fade. But that’s not to say that the health risks disappear as well. Even slightly elevated levels of air pollution can have a significant effect on human health. Over long periods and on a global scale, such impacts can add up. But exactly how much exposure to air pollution do people around the world get? And how much health damage is it causing? Since there are gaps in networks of ground sensors, University of North Carolina earth scientist Jason West is leading an effort to answer those questions using computer models that simulate the atmosphere..."

Image above: NASA.gov.

Monitoring The Tropics. It's still unusually quiet in the Atlantic and Caribbean, but we're keeping an eye on "Invest 97" for possible intensification in the coming days. Graphic above courtesy of the Tallahassee office of the National Weather Service.

NOAA Puts 170 Years Of Hurricane History Into One Interactive Site. GCN Pulse has an interesting article with links to near hurricane climatology resources; here's an excerpt: "Hurricanes are never good news, but they do make history. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has put a lot of that history in one place, with its Historical Hurricane Tracks website, which puts more than 170 years of global hurricane data into an interactive map. The site serves up data on global hurricanes as they made landfall going back to 1842, long before hurricanes were given names, and provides links to information on tropical cyclones in the United States since 1958, and other U.S. storms dating back to 1851. The most recent addition to the site provides details on last year’s Hurricane Sandy. Visitors to the site can search by location, storm name or ocean basin and select the search area (by nautical miles, statute miles or kilometers). Selecting Miami, for example, will display a map on south Florida criss-crossed by the tracks of many a hurricane..."

Easily Obtained Subpoenas Turn Your Personal Information Against You. Careful what you post on FB, Twitter and store on your (allegedly) smart phone. Here's an eye-opening report from NPR and The Center for Investigative Reporting: "For some, revelations that the National Security Agency has been collecting vast amounts of personal information on U.S. citizens might seem as far removed as the city of Moscow. But it’s not just an ultrasecret spy agency that can create a dossier on you. Many Americans would be surprised by how easily local law enforcement, IRS investigators, the FBI and private attorneys can reach into the vast pool of personal information about their lives with little more than a subpoena, which no judge needs to review. And it’s not just for selling you more products or services. It can be wielded against you..."

Inside The Fall Of Blackberry: How The Smartphone Inventor Failed To Adapt. Innovate or die, right? Anyone in the tech industry (or any business for that matter) needs to be perpetually paranoid, pushing the envelope, as this excerpt from a fascinating story at The Globe And Mail confirms: "This investigative report reveals that:

Shortly after the release of the first iPhone, Verizon asked BlackBerry to create a touchscreen “iPhone killer.” But the result was a flop, so Verizon turned to Motorola and Google instead.
In 2012, one-time co-CEO Jim Balsillie quit the board and cut all ties to BlackBerry in protest after his plan to shift focus to instant-messaging software, which had been opposed by founder Mike Lazaridis, was killed by current CEO Thorsten Heins...

Image above: crackberry.com.

Twitter Founder Reveals Secret Formula For Getting Rich Online. Here's one guy who cracked the magic code. Wired has an intriguing article - here's a clip: "...The bottom line, Williams said, is that the internet is “a giant machine designed to give people what they want.” It’s not a utopia. It’s not magical. It’s simply an engine of convenience. Those who can tune that engine well — who solve basic human problems with greater speed and simplicity than those who came before — will profit immensely. Those who lose sight of basic human needs — who want to give people the next great idea — will have problems. “We often think of the internet enables you to do new things,” Williams said. “But people just want to do the same things they’ve always done....”

A Youthful Glow, Radiating From Within. We all want to look younger - and now comes research that may trouble plastic surgeons around the world. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "...True youthfulness — or, I should say, appearing younger than your age — is much more than skin-deep. Research has shown that youthfulness must come from within. In one study, a team at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland analyzed the facial photographs of 186 pairs of identical twins, determining which sibling looked older and why. Factors that contributed to looking older included smoking, sun exposure, stress, and depression (or the use of antidepressants), the researchers reported. Other studies have linked depression to higher levels of inflammatory markers and oxidative stress, which can accelerate aging..."

* image above: funcram.com.

Climate Stories...

IPCC: Climate Change Report Highlights. Alarmist hype? Part of me hopes so, the other part of me shudders thinking about the implications of ignoring 97% of the world's leading climate scientists because we may not care for the message. In today's edition of Climate Matters we take a look at some of the highlights of Friday's report: "For the 5th time in 23 years, the world's leading climate scientists have released an update on the state of the climate. WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist reviews the highlights plus shares the panel's predictions for the rest of the century." Here's a link for more information: http://www.ipcc.ch/

Latest AR5 IPCC Summary As A "Word Cloud". Compliments of Leo Hickman and Twitter.

CO2 Reshaping The Planet, Meta-Analysis Confirms. Here's the intro to a story from Stephen Leahy at Inter Press Service: "Greenland will eventually truly become green as most of its massive ice sheet is destined to melt, the authoritative U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported Friday. The IPCC’s new 36-page summary of the latest science includes a warning that there is a 20-percent chance the massive Greenland ice sheet will begin an irreversible meltdown with only 0.2 degrees C of additional warming. That amount of additional warming is now certain. However, it would take 1,000 years for all the ice to melt. “The new report is yet another wake-up call saying we are in deep trouble and heading for dangerous levels of climate change,” said David Cadman, president of ICLEI , the only network of sustainable cities operating worldwide and involving 1,200 local governments. “The IPCC will be attacked by fossil fuel interests and their supporters….They will try and scare the public that taking action puts jobs and the economy at risk,” Cadman told IPS. “That’s simply not true. It’s the opposite...”

Photo credit above: "The melting of Mexico’s Orizaba glacier is another consequence of global warming." Credit: Mauricio Ramos/IPS.

Reporting On Climate Change, "The Mother Of All Risks". Here's an excerpt from Media Matters: "After reviewing the latest evidence from a major climate change report -- released in full on Monday -- the prominent consulting group PricewaterhouseCoopers concluded that climate change is the "mother of all risks." But while many businesses recognize climate risks, the media often cloud these risks by framing climate change in terms of "uncertainty," according to a recent study. This can lead to a disconnect between scientific understanding and public perception, and a misguided contentment with inaction..."

* the IPCC Final Draft is here, all 2,000+ pages of it.

Frackers Guzzle Water As Texas Goes Thirsty. Time Magazine has the story - here's an excerpt: "...Similar fights could soon happen almost anyplace where fracking operations are growing and water is scarce. Fracking giant Schlumberger estimates there will be a million new wells drilled around the world in the next 20 years. The fracking process pumps large amounts of pressurized water deep into the earth to dislodge oil and gas deposits. The amount of water needed varies, depending on the geology of the formation, but the average South Texas well takes some four to six million gallons of water over a period of several days as the rock formations are fractured, according to an industry source. Fracking companies point out that their industry consumes only 1% of all the fresh water usage in Texas, less than suburbia or agriculture. But drilling is using up water in some of the state’s driest areas, like Dimmit County. “We have a ticking time bomb,” Fitzsimmons says. Given the falling levels of the aquifer, it would take “a flood of Biblical proportions,” he says, to recharge the county’s water reserves..."

Photo credit above: Christopher Sherman - AP. "Farmers in South Texas are struggling with uneven crops and some that never emerged as the Rio Grande Valley suffers through its driest stretch ever recorded."

Obtaining 25% Of Energy From Renewables Would Save Billions. This is when we'll go over the top, when people realize they can save money while simultaneously cleaning up the environment and lowering GHG emissions into the atmosphere. A pipedream? Iowa currently gets about 25% of it's electricity from wind power. Here's a clip fromthe American Wind Energy Association and Clean Technica: "The Western U.S. could reap huge benefits in pollution savings and reduced spending on fossil fuels by installing more wind and solar power plants, according to a comprehensive new analysis released today by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The study found that obtaining 25% of electricity in the Western U.S. from renewable energy will reduce carbon dioxide pollution by up to 34% and save $7 billion annually in fossil fuel costs..." (Image: Clean Technica).

Can Solar Power Be Cheap? What further technological breakthroughs are necessary to scale solar power to the point where everyone will want (free) energy from the sun? Scientific American has the story - here's an excerpt: "Fact 1: The primary ingredient of most solar panels is purified sand. Fact 2: Enough sunlight hits the Earth in an hour to provide all of humanity's energy needs for a year. So why isn't solar power cheap and abundant? For starters, building a device capable of turning incoming photons into electricity isn't cheap. Add in installation and the cost of a solar system can still be more than $10 per watt of electricity produced. That's much higher than the cost per watt from burning coal or natural gas. It's going to take further technological breakthroughs to make photovoltaics cheaper. That’s the conclusion of a report from Lux Research, a firm that advises emerging technologies..." (Photo: Wikipedia).

The Western U.S. could reap huge benefits in pollution savings and reduced spending on fossil fuels by installing more wind and solar power plants, according to a comprehensive new analysis released today by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The study found that obtaining 25 percent of electricity in the Western U.S. from renewable energy will reduce carbon dioxide pollution by up to 34 percent and save $7 billion annually in fossil fuel costs.
The NREL report also conclusively puts to rest the fossil fuel industry myth that wind energy’s pollution savings are smaller than expected because fossil-fired power plants run at lower efficiency when wind is generating electricity.

Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/obtaining-25-energy-renewables-save-billions/#2iUo3AUOmtuLw12r.99

Sting In The Tail: Climate Change's Risks Aren't Like Wall Street's. Here's a clip from a very interesting perspective from Business Standard: "Climate change tail risks, including ones cited in a closely watched report on global warming, aren't like Wall Street's. As with traders and bank risk managers, researchers rely on complex models to assess the chances of bad outcomes. The incentives are different, though. Dire predictions can be more rewarding for scientists. That's the reason to focus on the new baseline forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which are now less alarming. The 800 authors of the study released on Friday say rising temperatures on the planet are "unequivocal" and that it is at least 95 per cent probable human influence has been the dominant cause for more than a half century. The 2007 edition found that likelihood to be 90 per cent and, in 2001, it was only 66 per cent...." (Photo: The Energy Collective).

Have You Seen A Psychologist About Global Warming Lately? National Journal has the article; here's a clip: "If only we could find a couch big enough to fit the entire human species, we could talk through what within our minds is preventing us from acting more aggressively on global warming. Buried within fights over the science, economy, environment, extreme weather, politics, and lobbying is a debate about how psychological traits ingrained in the basic human condition are preventing people from supporting more action on global warming, despite the fact that most scientists agree it’s only going to get worse unless humankind makes a concerted effort to take major action soon. Indeed, a United Nations report released Friday confirms with more certainty than ever (95 percent) what most scientists already know: that humans, chiefly through our use of coal, oil, and natural gas, are the key cause of the planet’s temperature rise..."

Photo credit above: "Sunstein: We need mind over matter." (AP Photo).

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Summer's Last Gasp Upper Midwest? Flood Potential Lingers Pacific Northwest

Summer's Last Gasp?

My wife keeps running marathons. I fear she's practicing to run away from me. Her biggest fear? Warm & windy.

That won't be an issue for the 2013 Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon. After summer-like warmth into midweek a true taste of October arrives late week, spilling over into a jacket-worthy weekend. It now looks like the MSP metro may avoid a frost, but runners can expect 40s and 50s Sunday morning under a postcard-perfect sky.

Me? I run when chased.

Highs near 80F are expected into Wednesday over southern Minnesota. Not bad considering the Twin Cities saw a coating of snow on Sept. 30, 1961.

ECMWF ("Euro") guidance hints at strong T-storms late Wednesday, steadier rain Thursday, with a cold wind blowing behind this front Friday. It may be cold enough aloft for the first flakes of the season for the Red River Valley late Friday; ground temperatures probably too warm for anything to stick.

Did your pulse rate just spike? Talk about big swings.

More 60s and a few 70s return next week; a better chance of a metro-wide frost the weekend of October 12-13 - with another surge of 60s by mid-month.

Will we ease into winter or experience a cold smack across the face? Stay tuned.

More July 30 Than September 30. We end the month on a warm note, temperatures as much as 15F warmer than average for late September, with a good shot at 80F in the Twin Cities, even some low to mid 80s over southern Minnesota. Map above: NOAA's 4 km. NAM solution for 4 pm today, courtesy of Ham Weather.

Summer Hanging On. At least over the central USA, as a ridge of high pressure pushes north, stiff south winds blowing across the Plains into the Upper Midwest with 80F as far north as the Twin Cities. Unusually wet, cool weather continues to impact the Pacific Northwest - temperatures still cooler than average over New England. 84-hour NAM temperature prediction into early Thursday capable of NOAA and Ham Weather.

Shades of Summer - Then An October Slap. Soak up the warmth over the next 48+ hours, because a vigorous cold front arrives Thursday with a good chance of rain; stiff northwest winds kicking in behind the storm on Friday as temperatures fall thru the 50s into the 40s up north - maybe a few flurries for the Red River Valley by Friday evening. Saturday looks brisk, 60s return Sunday with a few 70-degree highs returning next week. ECMWF guidance above: Weatherspark.

Flash Flood Potential Pacific Northwest. We're getting reports of significant flash flooding near Tacoma and Portland, as much as 2-4" of additional rain into Saturday, complicating the flood scenario. A slow-moving front sparks thunderstorms late Wednesday over the Upper Mississippi Valley, steadier rain possible Thursday before much colder air pour south. Heavy T-storms will sprout along the Gulf Coast as well. 5-Day rainfall: NOAA WPC.

Lingering Drought. 53.23% of Minnesota is in moderate drought, up from 51.62% a week ago. 8.94% of the state is in severe drought, including parts of the northern and eastern MSP metro area. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor 71% of Minnesota is "abnormally dry". No whining about rain anytime soon.

Ripening Colors. This upcoming weekend may be a good time to check out colors in the Brainerd and Alexandria Lakes area; 50-75% of the leaves have turned from near Detroit Lakes and Moorhead to the North Shore. Map above: Minnesota DNR.

October: A Favorite Month For Many. I always enjoy Dr. Mark Seeley's take on weather, climate and trends; here's an excerpt of a colorful, expertly-crafted description of October in this week's WeatherTalk Newsletter: "I came across this commentary about October's weather in an 1895 edition of the Minneapolis Journal...."October is generally a kingly month in Minnesota. It opens with the usual affluence of sunshine and quickening, bracing air, which [is} stimulating to the senses. Day after day, the transformation of summer greenery into the royal and gorgeous tones of autumn will go on and summer's silent fingering will be overwoven with pageantry of color which no human art can call into being. The recessional of the year is grander than the processional...."

Hurricane Season 2013. Are we out of the woods when it comes to Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico hurricanes? Not yet, according to an article at Crusing World - here's an excerpt: "Given the contrast between prognostication and reality, we’re out of harm’s way, right? Absolutely not, says Isaac Ginis, professor at the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography. “Regarding the slow hurricane season so far, it’s not very unusual,” Ginis says. “We had hurricane seasons in the past that started late. The main factor this year is a stable atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form. Also, dry, dusty air moving off the coast of Africa caused conditions hostile to tropical cyclone development. From the hurricane climatology perspectives, storms ordinary form closer to the U.S. coast later in the season, like Hurricane Sandy last year...”

Image credit: NOAA and hurricanescience.org.

Researchers: Texas Not Ready For Next Hurricane. Here's a clip from a story at The Brownsville Herald: "Five years after Hurricane Ike slammed into the Texas Gulf Coast, causing more than $30 billion in damage and killing at least 37 Texans, cities across the region have trumpeted their rebuilding efforts. But the tune was very different at Rice University’s Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters Center this week, where experts gathered to discuss the area’s vulnerability to future storms. It hasn’t improved, they said, and may have even worsened in the last few years — partly the result of explosive growth in the Houston Ship Channel that experts fear is occurring without appropriate hurricane safeguards..."

Photo credit above: Diana Eva Maldonado, The Brownsville Herald. "A home on Van Buren Street in Brownsville remains boarded up from Hurricane Dolly, but today's rain has already flooded the street."

Climate Change Report Leads Meteorologist To Stop Flying. Here's a nugget from The Toronto Sun: "A well-known U.S. meteorologist was so affected by a recent report on climate change that he has vowed never to fly again. "I realized, just now: This has to be the last flight I ever take. I'm committing right now to stop flying. It's not worth the climate," Eric Holthaus tweeted Friday. Holthaus, who has written about weather for the Wall Street Journal, also confessed to crying before boarding his flight from San Francisco Airport. "I've never cried because of a science report before," he tweeted..." (Image from fotolia.com).

Climate Stories.

Climate Change: Finally, At Least One Conservative Gets It. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The Salt Lake Tribune: "...Bob (Inglis) didn’t come to this conclusion by way of a revelation. He studied the science, traveled twice to Antarctica, talked to the experts and looked at the evidence. His conclusion: Climate change is real, the consequences are dire, and we’re to blame. The overwhelming majority of the world’s credible scientists agree with Bob. In fact, it’s now nearly a consensus. If we continue to pour carbon into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, we can expect weather like last year’s hurricane Sandy, this summer’s wildfire season in the West and the recent flooding in Colorado to become regular occurrences. The climate system of the Earth has become that unstable. This is not a faith-based belief system. This is fact. The evidence is overwhelming. A climatologist colleague of mine summed up the mountain of scholarly literature on the subject like this: "climate change is real, it’s our fault, scientists agree, it’s bad, and it’s not too late..." (Image: Wikipedia).

The 5 Most Sobering Reports From The IPCC Climate Report. Climate Central's Andrew Freedman does a good job highlighting the information you need to know from AR5; here's a clip: "The first installment in the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest scientific assessment on climate science came out on Friday, and it’s loaded with dense terminology, expressions of uncertainty, and nearly impenetrable graphics. But we'll make it simple for you. Here’s what you need to know, in number and chart form..."

* The IPCC AR5 Report Summary is here, courtesy of The New York Times.
* IPCC Climate Report: The Digested Read. Here's an overview at The Guardian.

Alarming IPCC Prognosis: 9F. Warming For U.S., Faster Sea Rise, More Extreme Weather, Permafrost Collapse. Joe Romm at Think Progress has more details on the latest report, and how it differs from previous IPCC summaries. But this is the 5th time in 23 years that the world's leading climate scientists are pretty much saying the same thing: "The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now says we are as certain that humans are dramatically changing the planet’s climate as we are that smoking causes cancer. So perhaps the best way to think about the IPCC, which has issued a summary of its latest report reviewing the state of climate science, is as a super-cautious team of brilliant diagnosticians and specialists (who, like many doctors, aren’t the greatest communicators). They are the best in the world at what they do — the climate equivalent of the Cleveland Clinic or Mayo Clinic or Johns Hopkins — where you and the rest of humanity have just gone through a complete set of medical tests and are awaiting the diagnosis, prognosis, and recommended course of treatment. (It has a big waiting room — called planet Earth.) The diagnosis is that humans are suffering from a fever (and related symptoms) caused by our own actions — primarily emissions of carbon pollution. Indeed, team IPCC is more certain than the last time we came in 6 years ago and ignored their advice. They are 95% to 100% certain we are responsible for most of the added fever since 1950..."

Image credit above: "Humanity's choice (via IPCC): Aggressive climate action ASAP (left figure) minimizes future warming. Continued inaction (right figure) results in catastrophic levels of warming, 9°F over much of U.S."

Friday's Big Global Warming Report: 5 Takeaways. Here's a snippet from a good summary at National Geographic: "...Five takeaways from the new report:

1. On the extreme weather front, the report concludes it is “very likely” that cold days and nights have decreased, while warm days and nights have increased, since 1950. More extreme precipitation has also likely increased worldwide, particularly in North America and Europe. That means that the top one percent of heaviest rain or snow storms are heavier now, as compared to then. In other words, when it rains hardest, it pours harder.

2. The oceans have warmed with “virtual certainty,” the report concludes, at a rate of about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.11 Celsius) per decade since 1970 in the upper 246 feet (75 meters) of surface water. Ocean warming accounts for more than 90 percent of the heat added to the atmosphere by global warming in that time, with most of it pumped into the top 2,300 feet (700 meters) of the oceans. “That doesn't mean the oceans are saving us,” Stocker says. “It means it would be much worse without the oceans...”

Photo credit above: "Extreme weather, like this unusually severe downpour in Chengdu, China, has likely increased." Photograph from China Daily, Reuters.

Danish-Owned Coal Cargo Ship Sails Through Northwest Passage. No, the irony isn't lost on me either. The same science-denialists who refute climate change must be thrilled that less Arctic ice enables fossil fuel companies to transport their coal and oil north of Canada (and Russia), saving time and money - making it even more cost-effective for the rest of us to use fossil fuels (that will continue to shrink the Arctic ice cap over time). Makes perfect sense to me. Here's an excerpt from Canada's CTV News: "A Danish-owned coal-laden cargo ship has sailed through the Northwest Passage for the first time and into the history books as the second bulk carrier to navigate the Arctic route. The Nordic Orion left Vancouver on Sept. 17 carrying 15,000 tons of coal. Ed Coll, CEO of Bulk Partners, an operational partner of ship-owner Nordic Bulk Carriers, said Friday that the freighter has passed Greenland. He said it is expected to dock in Finland next week after traversing waters once impenetrable with thick ice. Interest in the Northwest Passage is on the rise as climate change is melting Arctic sea ice, creating open waterways. The melting ice could make it a regular Atlantic-Pacific shipping lane..."

Image above: National Post and Nordic Bulk Carriers.

Why The World Won't Listen. Our grandkids are going to be pretty irritated with us - all the science and data and we sat on our hands, debating the "facts", listening to fossil-fuel-funded deniers babble on, hoping they might just be right. Here's an excerpt from NewScientist and Slate that explains how some of this perpetual denial is hard-wired into all of us: "...How did the rational arguments of science and economics fail to win the day? There are many reasons, but an important one concerns human nature. Through a growing body of psychological research, we know that scaring or shaming people into sustainable behavior is likely to backfire. We know that it is difficult to overcome the psychological distance between the concept of climate change—not here, not now—and people's everyday lives. We know that beliefs about the climate are influenced by extreme and even daily weather. One of the most striking findings is that concern about climate change is not only, or even mostly, a product of how much people know about science. Increased knowledge tends to harden existing opinions..."

Cities Taking Action On Climate Change: Why Mayors Don't Waste Time Debating The Science. If only we had more scientifically rational pragmatists like New York City's Mayor Bloomberg. LinkedIn has the story - here's an excerpt of Mayor Bloomberg's Op-Ed: "Mayors are pragmatists, not partisans; innovators, not ideologues. We are responsible for delivering results rather than debating politics. As New York’s great Mayor LaGuardia put it, “There is no Democratic or Republican to pick up the garbage.” And as the world becomes increasingly more urban, the importance of bold local action - particularly on climate change – continues to grow. For the first time in human history, more than half the world's population is living in cities, which now produce approximately 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. That puts mayors and cities on the frontlines of the battle against climate change. For coastal cities like New York, the risks of climate change are especially serious: sea levels are expected to rise by another two and a half feet in the next 40 years, making storm surges even more powerful and dangerous. And intense storms are likely to increase as the ocean's temperatures continue to rise..."

Scientists: Global Warming Is Man-Made, Getting Worse. More details from Voice of America: "Scientists say they are more certain than ever that humans are the main cause of global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said Friday it is "extremely likely" that global warming was man-made. In its last report in 2007, the United Nations panel had said it was "very" likely. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the latest report another "wake-up call." In a statement Friday, he said "those who deny the science or choose excuses over action are playing with fire..."

Americans Are Less Worried About Climate Change Than Almost Anyone Else. Well, Pakistanis are less worried than we are - that's a good start! Check out the details of the graph above and sobering narrative from The Washington Post.

7 Stupid Things People Are Saying About Climate Change That Aren't At All True. Cue the repeated head-slaps. After reading the latest IPCC report I needed a good laugh, and Buzzfeed came through for me - thank God for those animated GIFs: “Global warming has stopped.” Nope. Global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years. For each of the last three decades the Earth’s surface has been successively warmer than any preceding decade since 1850...."

Animated image credit: media.giphy.com.

Thank You Global Warming. Giant Hornets Are Killing Dozens In China And Eating Bees Across Europe. Well here's some good news! Don't sweat the thundershowers - hopefully we won't be tracking these on Doppler in the USA anytime soon. Quartz has the story - here's a clip: "A plague of hornets, each the size of a human thumb, have descended on Shaanxi province this summer—at least 28 have been stung to death (link in Chinese), while another 419 have been injured, according to a local news report from China Radio Network (CRN), via the New York Times’ Chris Buckley. The death toll from hornet attacks in Ankang city is more than twice the annual average between 2002 and 2005, say the Ankang police, as the Guardian reports. A local doctor said hospitalizations due to hornet attacks have risen steadily over the years (link in Chinese). Why the uptick? The population of Asian giant hornets (vespa mandarinia), as they’re known, has surged largely because of climate change, says the Shaanxi Provincial Forestry Department (link in Chinese). The average winter temperature in Ankang rose 1.10 ℃ in the span of a few years alone, allowing more hornets to survive the winter. And it’s not just China; rising temperatures are behind the spread of another deadly Chinese hornets species, vespa velutina, in South Korea and Europe..."

Image credit above: "More killer than a killer bee." Flickr user Thomas H Brown.

Michael Mann: Climate Change Deniers Must Stop Distorting The Evidence. Details at LiveScience: "...The lesson here, perhaps, is that no misrepresentation or smear is too egregious for professional climate-change deniers. No doubt, we will continue to see misdirection, cherry-picking, half truths and outright falsehoods from them in the months ahead as the various IPCC working groups report their conclusions. Don't be fooled by the smoke and mirrors and the Rube Goldberg contraptions. The true take-home message of the latest IPCC report is crystal clear: Climate change is real and caused by humans, and it continues unabated. We will see far more dangerous and potentially irreversible impacts in the decades ahead if we do not choose to reduce global carbon emissions. There has never been a greater urgency to act than there is now."

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Flash Flood Risk Pacific Northwest (more details on latest IPCC AR5 climate report)

What You Need To Know About IPCC AR5. Highlights from the latest climate report below.

Over The Horizon

I wasn't born here but I've come to appreciate this place, and hope it can stay this way for my kids, and yours.

That's why I talk about climate change. It's already impacting America's weather patterns, and greater impacts may be coming.

My intention isn't to alarm you or depress you but prompt you to go online and see the real scientific findings, free of ideological spin or snark.

I'm in Indianapolis talking to legislators & local media about extreme weather trends; how these are symptoms of a warming atmosphere. Friday, for the 5th time in 23 years, the world's leading researchers confirmed that we are altering Earth's climate.

The same day came news of a Danish ship becoming the second cargo ship to traverse the Northwest Passage, passing NORTH of Canada, a result of shrinking Arctic ice. It carried 15,000 tons of coal.
No, you can't make this stuff up.

Blue sky returns today, another week of mostly 70s as we sail into October. T-storms pop up on Thursday, by Friday a few flakes may be flying up north with highs in the 40s from Duluth to Brainerd. Dig out the jackets - there's a risk of a suburban frost by Monday AM.

We're still easing into autumn - models show more 70s by late next week.

Mild Start - Chilly Finish. We should see 70s into Thursday, even a shot at 80F on Tuesday, the first day of October. A vigorous cool frontal boundary whips up showers and T-storms Thursday, with wind-whipped showers and sprinklles spilling over into Friday, when it should truly feel like October. A brisk weekend is shaping up, but we warm up again next week, based on ECMWF guidance. Graph: Weatherspark.

National Map. Saturday's soggy front pushes across the Midwest and Great Lakes today; skies clearing over Minnesota and the Dakotas. Snow conntinues over the highest terrain from Wyoming to Montana, while a stubborn Pacific storm pushes windswept rain into the Pacific Northwest (some flash flooding possible near Seattle and Portland). The tropics remain quiet. 84 hour NAM model courtesy of NOAA and Ham Weather.

Winter Chill: More Bark Than Bite. Next weekend looks chilly with highs in the 50s, but we should see more 60s and 70s returning to Minnesota next week. I still see a mild bias (and little rain) into mid-October, based on GFS guidance.

A Little Close For Comfort. Here's a remarkable photo taken by Josh Johns, courtesy of Twitter.

How Far Is 3 Million Miles? By car it's a lot of of "are we there yets?" Talk about the ultimate endorsement for Volvo - Gizmag has the details: "What's the relevance of 3 million miles? It's the record-breaking distance Irv Gordon has driven in his 1966 Volvo 1800S, though not all at once, obviously. Gordon reached the incredible milestone after years of touring the United States, ever since he bought the car on a Friday in 1966. He made a flying start that holiday weekend, returning to the dealership on the Monday for the car's 1,500-mile service. He crossed both the 1 and 2 million mile marks in New York, but to crack 3 million, his Volvo was transported to Alaska, one of the final two states where Gordon was yet to drive it..."

Photo credit above: "Irv Gordon has traveled 3 million miles in his 1966 Volvo 1800S."

Climate Stories.

The 5 Most Sobering Reports From The IPCC Climate Report. Climate Central's Andrew Freedman does a good job highlighting the information you need to know from AR5; here's a clip: "The first installment in the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest scientific assessment on climate science came out on Friday, and it’s loaded with dense terminology, expressions of uncertainty, and nearly impenetrable graphics. But we'll make it simple for you. Here’s what you need to know, in number and chart form..."

* The IPCC AR5 Report Summary is here, courtesy of The New York Times.

* IPCC Climate Report: The Digested Read. Here's an overview at The Guardian.

Friday's Big Global Warming Report: 5 Takeaways. Here's a snippet from a good summary at National Geographic: "...Five takeaways from the new report:

Photo credit above: "Extreme weather, like this unusually severe downpour in Chengdu, China, has likely increased." Photograph from China Daily, Reuters.