Living With Risk
We all know that risk is part of life. Any time you grill, cross the street or board a plane you're living with manageable, acceptable levels of risk.
Living by a river, building a home in Tulsa with no basement, buying a condo on the beach within 10 feet of sea level? A whole new level of risk.
Consider: drinking and driving doesn't mean a DUI or fatal accident is guaranteed. But the risk of both go up exponentially.
A warmer ocean and rising sea level didn't spawn Sandy, but it did make the storm worse; the atmospheric equivalent of tossing an extra log on the fire.
And for all the grief we get for enduring Minnesota winters remind your Florida friends that those annoying cold fronts innoculate us from the worst storms on Earth.
Your odds of being in a billion dollar storm are 3-4 times higher from Texas to Florida to the Carolinas. Details below.
Winds ease up today - sunny, dry weather into early December. Just about the time I'm ready to throw in the towel on Indian Summer, model guidance makes me do a double-take. The ECMWF shows another warm bubble of high pressure expanding north next weekend.
We'll see more 50s, a 1 in 3 shot at 60.
In early December?
2012: Off-The-Scale Warm. NOAA released the latest data for the lower 48 states, showing that it's pretty much a sure bet that this year will be the warmest ever observed in the USA, warmer than 1998, 1999 and 2006.
Record Warmth on Thanksgiving. According to NOAA there were 229 record events on Thursday from coast to coast; most of them record highs from the Plains to the Great Lakes. Was it really 60 F. here on Thanksgiving? It seems like a meteorological mirage. Map: Ham Weather.
Record Highs on Thanksgiving Day
Pellston, MI 68
Sault Ste Marie, MI 65
Traverse City, MI 65
Gaylord, MI 63
Chicago, IL 63 (third warmest Thanksgiving day on record)
Wausau, WI 62(tie)
Alpena, MI 61
Green Bay, WI 61
Houghton Lake, MI 60
Rhinelander, WI 59
Marquette, MI 58
Duluth, MN 52(tie)
* my thanks to Julie Gaddy at Earth Networks for sharing this information. Interactive map above: Ham Weather.
** photo above courtesy of Greg Berman, from Lyons, Colorado.
Weekend Thaw, Chilly Monday, Then Slow Warming Trend. Friday was about as cold as it will get looking out the next 12 days or so, although Monday may come close. After recovering to near 32 today and low to mid 30s Sunday the next clipper pulls a reinforcing surge of chilly air into Minnesota Monday. Graphic: Iowa State.
More Hints Of Indian Summer (Lite). Not sure we'll see 60 again, but can I interest you in 50s? The ECMWF map above is valid next Saturday evening, showing another ridge of high pressure expanding northward across the Plains. In fact we'll probably see a few days above 50 the first week of December. Map above: WSI.
December...Rain? The GFS forecast for a week from Tuesday (December 4) shows the "540 line", the approximate rain/snow line, slicing across the Dakotas - the atmosphere potentially mild enough for rain. On December 4. The way this year is going nothing much surprises me anymore.
* more on the documentary "Chasing Ice" here.