Every day is a gift. And every day you can be with family (warts and all) is a special blessing. Food & football comes second. Right? I'm reading off a Teleprompter - so bear with me. You know what I'm trying to say.
I hope you successfully navigate today's 2 to 4 inch accumulation of turkey, the mashed potato drifts, showers of hot gravy and slippery side plates brimming with cranberry sauce.
Add weather to a long list of things to be thankful for. It could have just as easily been 0F than 50F this year, statistically. We got lucky. A promising start gives way to increasing clouds and wind by afternoon, harbingers of a Canadian Smack that will leave us reaching for coats & parkas by tomorrow. Arctic? Not exactly, but compared with the last few days a groan-worthy reality check.
No weather-related headaches getting home this weekend. Next week's storm sails southeast of Minnesota; no accumulating snow in sight. Sound familiar? When in a drought - don't predict rain...or snow.
Expect chilled sun & 20s next week; a few degrees below average. I suspect we've seen the last of the 60s, but highs may top 50 as we sail into December.
I'm done now.
May I please have a slice of pie?
Snow Potential. Snowy rumors are swirling in the media. "OMG - we may see some snow!" Breaking news: it probably won't be a big deal, at least not in the metro area. A coating of flurries is possible this evening and tonight, maybe 1/2 to 1" from St. Cloud to Brainerd, over 2" from Duluth to Bemidji tonight. Map above: WSI RPM Model.
Cold Turkey, The Sequel. Mild weather lingers thru midday, but temperatures take a serious tumble this afternoon, dropping from 56 around noon to 32 by the dinner hour. The greater the temperature extreme, the stronger winds have to blow, and I expect wind gusts over 30 mph this afternoon. Temperatures bottom out in the mid 20s tonight and only recover to near 30 tomorrow. It's too cold to shop. Right. Graphic: Iowa State.
Numb And Number. Friday wind chills are forecast to drop into the teens across most of Minnesota with more clouds than sun; winds still gusting from 20-30 mph. Map: Ham Weather.
The Making Of The Hottest Year On Record: USA Temperature Update. Here's an update on 2012, which will most likely go down into the record books at the warmest year of the last 115 across the nation. In fact there is a 90% probability 2012 will set a new record for warmth. 10 of the 11 warmest years have been observed since 2000. NOAA's ClimateWatch has more: "...Now how does 2012 fit in? Well, 2012 has been warm, and the first driver of the extreme warmth was March. March was the warmest March on record by far, and this caused 2012 to leap out way ahead of the pack. We had the warmest spring on record, the warmest July on record, the third warmest summer on record. All of these together helped 2012 maintain a huge lead throughout the year. Average temperatures in October pulled 2012 back to the pack ever so slightly, but you can see that the year-to-date temperature not only remains well above average, it remains well above history. So we will most likely finish with the warmest year on record—and by a huge margin. Go to the CPC web page to see their outlook for yourself, and while you’re at it, check out all our climate records at the climate monitoring web site. Keeping the big picture in perspective is a big part of being “climate smart.”
Map above: NOAA NCDC. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and the Dakotas are among 21 states on track to experience the warmest year in the last 115 years of record-keeping. Every state, except for Washington, has had a warmer than average year.
Having a mild day in the 50's on Thanksgiving Day is relatively rare, looking at the historical record back to 1872. A maximum of 50 or more has happened only ten times in 140 years, or about once every 14 years or so. The warmest Thanksgiving Day is a tie of 62 degrees set in 1914 and 1922. The mildest recent Thanksgiving Day is 59 degrees on November 24, 2011. This was the fourth warmest Thanksgiving back to 1872 for the Twin Cities.
On the other side of the spectrum, it is common to have a high temperature below 32. The average Thanksgiving Day temperature is right around freezing. What about extremely cold Thanksgivings? Looking at the past 140 years, It is a little more likely to have a minimum at or below zero on Thanksgiving Day, as it is to have a maximum of 50 or above. Below-zero lows have occurred twelve times in the past 140 years. The coldest Thanksgiving Day minimum temperature was 18 degrees below zero on November 25, 1880. The coldest high temperature was one below zero on November 28, 1872. The last time it was below zero on the morning of Thanksgiving was in 1985, with eight below zero.
Measurable snow fell on 27 of the past Thanksgivings back to 1884, about every five years or so. The most snow that fell on Thanksgiving was five inches in 1970. The last time there was measurable snow on Thanksgiving was in 2007 with .2 (two tenths of an inch) of snow. Historically, about one in three Thanksgivings have at least one inch of snow on the ground. The deepest snow pack is a tie with 1921 and 1983, both with 10 inches on the ground by Turkey Day."
* the latest NOAA U.S. Drought Monitor is here.
Photo credit above: "A Coast Guard boat patrols in the foreground as a barge makes its way down the Mississippi River Friday, Nov. 16, 2012, in St. Louis. A top Corps of Engineers official has ordered the release of water from an upper Mississippi River reservoir in an effort to avoid closure of the river at St. Louis to barge traffic due to low water levels caused by drought." (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Photo credit above: "Technology such as smart meters and micro-grids can help the vulnerable U.S. electric grid weather extreme storms." Image: Flickr/Christopher Schoenbohm
Photo credit above: "One of the largest piles of storm debris at the Jersey shore is shown in this Nov. 15, 2012 photo in Long Branch N.J. Superstorm Sandy created tons of debris that towns in New York and New Jersey are still struggling to dispose of weeks later. Three weeks in, the round-the clock effort to remove storm rubble has strained the resources of sanitation departments and landfill operators, and caused heartaches and headaches for thousands of families." (AP Photo/Wayne Parry)
Photo credit above: Andrew Quilty / Oculi for Time.
Hey Paul. Does it look like we will have more tornados (4) than inches of snow (trace) this month?
Kent from Eden Prairie
Kent - I think you're right. We've had a whopping 2/10ths of an inch of snow so far this month (last Monday), and the odds of accumulating snow between now and the end of November are small, and dwindling. Earlier models were hinting at a little snow next Tuesday, but now models suggest the next storm will (once again) sail off to our south and east. When in a drought don't predict rain...or snow. I suspect snow lovers will remain frustrated into at least the first half of December.
Hey Paul - What is the latest mosquitoes have been seen in Minneapolis?
I just killed an August size mosquitoe and it's Tuesday November 20, 2012!
Mosquitoes thanksgiving warning.
Jim - I included your note, because it made me laugh. Thank you for that. I have no clue what the latest mosquito sighting might be here in the metro area, but I suspect we're close to a record. Does anyone even keep that data? I predict a dire lack of mosquitoes by Friday as cold air comes rushing back into town.
Ok, I know this is a month or more away, but, already stressing about Christmas holiday. Any hints as to weather for Christmas? (relatives coming!) Lots of snow, little snow? Mild temps or extremely cold??
Cheryl - I feel your pain. Welcome to the joyously stressful holiday season. Did I buy enough gifts? Is the house ready? Is there enough food in the house? The stress of expectations and family togetherness is enough to push anyone over the edge. Add (foul) weather to the mix and it's enough to make you crack! The reality: a Christmas forecast isn't in the cards - it's still too far out to say with any level of confidence. NOAA is predicting a colder than average month (I agree). But droughts are stubborn, persistent things - they tend to take (many) months to correct, and my hunch, my gut, is that drier than average weather will linger into much of December. I think it will be cold enough for snow - but will we have any (southern) moisture to work with? My hunch: no mega-snow-storms thru the first half of December, but one of these arctic smacks may twist jet stream winds enough to bring some real moisture north. I certainly wouldn't rule out a white Christmas, but if we do pick up significant snow it may not be until the latter half of December. Stay tuned.
Graphic above courtesy of SPC, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Photo credit above: "John Fasullo, right, and colleague Kevin Trenberth work at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorad." (Photo by John Fasullo.)
President Obama's False Choice: Global Warming Or The Economy? The story from Huffington Post; here's an excerpt: "...The president is understandably concerned that the American public elected him with a mandate to focus on jobs, growth and the economy, and any deviation from this is, as he says, not something "I would stand for." However, the very jobs he hopes to create and the economic engine he hopes to stoke will be influenced by the impacts of climate change. According to a report in Time, the damages caused by Hurricane Sandy will cost from $30 billion to $60 billion. Clearly, the world cannot afford too many super-charged storms. Meanwhile, record heat plagued most states during the summer of 2012, leading to a drought that might be the most costly natural disaster in history. There are brand-new jobs to be had in new green energy technologies. Plus, according to the respectable Stern Review, spending just 1 to 2 percent of GDP today (about $900 per person per year, or the price of a cell phone plan) will take care of current emissions. Waiting a few decades means the cost goes up to a far more painful 20 percent. In simple terms, if we don't deal with the issue of climate change it will hurt jobs, growth and the economy, saddling not just our generation, but our children's generation as well, with debt and consequences..."
Photo credit above: "Low water levels expose the sandy lake bottom on Lake Michigan." Photo by Jeff J. Cashman.
Photo credit above: " ."
More Fallout From Urgent World Bank Climate Report. Live Science has an interesting quote from climate scientist Michael Mann: "..Climate deniers often claim that solutions to global warming are part of a "global socialist agenda," Mann told LiveScience. "The fact that the World Bank — an entity committed to free market capitalism — has weighed in on the threat of climate change and the urgency of acting to combat it, puts the nail in the coffin of that claim," he said.
A changing world
The report, issued by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics for the World Bank, urges nations to work to prevent the Earth from warming 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) past preindustrial averages. Already, global mean temperatures are running about 1.3 degrees F (0.8 degrees C) hotter than before the onset of the industrial revolution..."
Photo credit above: Huffington Post.
- Extreme heat waves, that without global warming would be expected to occur once in several hundred years, will be experienced during almost all summer months in many regions. The effects would not be evenly distributed. The largest warming would be exptected to occur over land and range from 4° C to 10° C. Increases of 6° C or more in average monthly summer temperatures would be expected in the Mediterranean, North Africa, Middle East and parts of the United States.
- Sea level-rise by 0.5 to 1 meter by 2100 is likely, with higher levels also possible. Some of the most highly vulnerable cities are located in Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, Venezuela, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.