A Tornado Conundrum
The
media has a nagging double standard when it comes to airing tornado
video. It's good for ratings and clicks, but are we encouraging people
to drive into raging storms - in search of video clips that may cost
them their lives?
In light of the 2013 El Reno EF-5 that killed
several tornado researchers, including veteran Tim Samaras, many storm
chasers have backed off, not as willing to risk life and limb.
Kory
Hartman heads up Severe Studios, a network of professionally trained
spotters and chasers. "They all have at least 2-3 years of National
Weather Service spotter training" he explained. No, you can't fix
stupid, but live tornado footage - from trained professionals on the
scene - serves a purpose: "It provides critical confirmation - it gets
people to take action" Hartman said.
Warm, dry weather spills over
into Saturday morning but a slow-moving front sparks numerous
T-storms
from Saturday afternoon into Tuesday of next week. The front stalls
nearby, repeated rounds of storms may spark localized flooding in some
towns. Yes, lake water levels may rise a little more.
In today's blog: 80s and ice on Lake Superior, and global CO2 levels pass the 400 ppm milestone.
Tornado Titillation or Public Service?
So is airing tornado footage, after the fact, a good idea? Does it
tempt others, without training or experience, to rush headlong into
supercells with iPhones held high, tempting fate in the process? There's
anecdotal evidence that streaming LIVE tornado footage from webcam,
spotters or chasers confirms the fact that there's a life-threatening
storm moving in, prompting people to take action and head for the
basement or another shelter. I asked
Severe Studios founder Kory Hartman for his thoughts in the wake of the (reckless) tornado footage from Watford City, North Dakota: "
El
Reno killed some of the best and most knowledgeable chasers of all
time. If that somehow inspires people to grab a Camaro and a camcorder
and go flying after storms at 90mph with no experience, then God help
them." He added "
live video is very valuable as the "social
science" confirmation that a tornado is heading toward a person's house.
The video of chasers getting hit by tornadoes should be a "caution" to
people. After El Reno, most of my chasers have learned to leave earlier,
have more escape routes, stay to the south/southeast of the storm, take
others with for navigation, etc."
* image above is a Doppler radar velocity field showing the enormous
EF-5 tornado
that hit El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013, killing at least one
amateur storm chaser and 3 tornado research veterans, including Tim
Samaras. The red dots are locations of storm spotters relative to the
tornado vortex.
North Dakota Tornado Prompts Safety Discussion.
No basements, no permanent structures, nothing but wide-open fields.
Where do you go? The recent tornado near Watford City, North Dakota has
prompted a discussion about safety - here's a clip from
Manteca Bulletin: "
No
sirens or local alert system warned an RV park housing workers in North
Dakota’s oil patch about a Memorial Day tornado that injured nine
people and damaged or destroyed 15 trailers. Even with warning, there
are scant places to take cover in the wide-open plain. Though such
weather is rare in the area, officials say the twister already has
prompted discussion among companies and others about how to better
protect the thousands of workers who have taken to temporary homes as
they cash in on the region’s booming industry..."
Video: "Dramatic" North Dakota Tornado Footage.
Is it irresponsible to show this or link to this clip? Perhaps. Is it
news? My fear is that highlighting these clips encourage others to take
unnecessary risks to get a "tornado money shot" - which will put a lot
of people in harm's way. With mixed feelings here's an excerpt from
Stranger Dimensions: "
Warning:
the above video contains strong language, nervous laughter, and some
seriously awe-inspiring tornado footage. The tornado touched
down in Watford City, North Dakota on Monday evening, and Dan Yorgason
not only lived through it, he captured some pretty incredible footage..."
* Here is a G-rated version of the tornado video clip from North Dakota, courtesy of
GMA and Yahoo News.
Sloppy Holding Pattern.
Precious little rain is forecast west of the Rockies over the next 84
hours. NOAA's 12 km NAM shows a moist fetch from the Gulf of Mexico
fueling a slow-moving cool front pushing across the Dakotas into
Minnesota by Saturday. Numerous showers and T-storms are expected across
the Gulf Coast and Southeast. NAM Future Radar: HAMweather.
All or Nothing.
Little or no rain is predicted from California into west Texas over the
next 7 days, but torrential rains will linger over Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, another area of potentially excessive rainfall
from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest this weekend, where some 2-4"
rainfall amounts are possible. Source: NOAA.
Tropical Whispers.
The GFS has shown a similar solution for a few runs now, so although
it's far from a slam-dunk, our confidence level continues to grow
regarding possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by the end
of next week. The GFS model brings a tropical depression or possible
tropical storm (Arthur?) into the Florida Panhandle next weekend, around
Sunday, June 8. The official NOAA outlook calls for fewer tropical
systems in 2014, largely the result of El Nino increasing wind shear
over the tropics. It would be ironic if we had a busy season for
tropical storms and hurricanes. At this point nothing would surprise me.
Map above: WSI.
Record Heat and Record Ice: Astonishing Scenes from Lake Superior.
This takes weather whiplash to an entirely new level - sunbathing in
record 80-degree heat with chunks of ice floating behind you.
Meteorologist Jason Samenow reports at The Washington Post's
Capital Weather Gang: "...
Near
the southern shores of Lake Superior, fragments of ice still speckled
the water’s surface this Memorial Day weekend. These vestiges from the
polar vortex winter presented an amazing contrast with the actual air
temperature – which surged into the 80s in some areas just a few miles
inland. Heat records were set in a region with record-setting ice
extent – quite the incongruity..." (Image above: NASA).
Tropical Pattern East of Rockies.
While a stubborn bubble of Canadian high pressure keeps much of New
England cooler than average, an expanding dome of hot, humidified air
sparks numerous T-storms from Montana and the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio Valley and Southeast. Locally heavy rains are likely along the Gulf
Coast. Dark green-shaded areas show a probability of precipitation
greater than 60%. Source: NOAA.
Researchers Turn To Drones To Gather Hurricane Information.
Because drones can capture real-time data that Hurricane Hunter
aircraft can't. Here's an excerpt of a great article from AP and
Longview's
News-Journal: "...
Hurricane
hunter aircraft typically don’t fly below 5,000 feet and can’t descend
below 1,500 feet, and real-time radar doesn’t provide information about
the thermodynamics at work inside a storm’s cloudy core. Canisters
stuffed with electronics dropped from the planes transmit data about a
storm’s pressure, temperature, winds and moisture as they fall to the
ocean, but they remain airborne for only a few minutes. The kind of
drone that Cione plans to launch from the hurricane hunters will spend
hours descending slowly, cruising on the air currents spinning through a
storm, possibly even orbiting a hurricane’s eyewall..."
London's Dirty Secret: Pollution Worse Than Beijing's.
This comes as a surprise to me - I was just in London in late December
and the air quality was pretty good, overall. It may have been a fluke,
according to a story at
Bloomberg, which examines the downside of diesel; here's a snippet: "
London
has a dirty secret. Levels of the harmful air pollutant nitrogen
dioxide at a city-center monitoring station are the highest in Europe.
Concentrations are greater even than in Beijing, where expatriates have
dubbed the city’s smog the “airpocalypse.” It’s the law of unintended
consequences at work. European Union efforts to fight climate change
favored diesel fuel over gasoline because it emits less carbon dioxide,
or CO2..."
125 Years After Johnstown: Facts About The Flood. Here's a snippet of an interesting piece from AP and
seattlepi.com: "
A
privately owned dam collapsed in western Pennsylvania 125 years ago on
May 31, 1889, unleashing a flood that killed 2,209 people. The terrible
stories from the Johnstown Flood of 1889 are still part of lore because
of the gruesome nature of many of the deaths and the key role it played
in the rise of the American Red Cross. Here's some of what's known about the flood, one of the deadliest natural disasters in U.S. history..."
File photo credit: "
In
this 1889 file photograph, people stand atop houses among ruins after
disastrous flooding in Johnstown, Pa. Facts, figures and anecdotes about
the Johnstown flood in Pennsylvania, which killed 2,209 people 125
years ago, gave the Red Cross its first international response effort
and helped set a precedent for American liability law." Photo: Uncredited, AP
The Internet As We Know It Is Dying. I read it on the Internet, so it must be true. Here's a clip from a story at
Salon: "...
All
is not well on the Web. While the particulars of each outburst of
consternation and anger vary significantly, a common theme connects them
all: The relentless corporatization and centralization of control over
Internet discourse is obviously not serving the public interest. The
good stuff gets co-opted, bought out, or is reduced to begging for spare
change on the virtual street corner. The best minds of our generation
have been destroyed by web metrics, dragging themselves across a vast
wasteland in search of the next clickbait headline..."
On the other hand...
State of the Internet: Still Growing but More Mobile Than Ever. Mary Meeker has a few interesting observations about mobile trends in this
New York Times article; here's an excerpt: "...
People
are media junkies, sharing articles via social media and tapping into
streaming services. Apps are replacing linear TV channels as the way to
consume video, with Americans aged 16 to 34 watching just 41 percent of
their TV live, she said. Google’s YouTube is also booming with
consumers. “They are increasingly loving short-form video,” she said.
“Consumers even love ads.” And 22 percent of video watching globally is
done on mobile devices..." (image above:
blazevideo.com).
What the Meeker Report Doesn't Say: An Internet Tsunami is Coming.
Moore's Law apparently applies to the Internet too. Will it reinvent
and prove resilient over the long haul? Please don't take amazon.com
away from me. Here's a link to the story at
inc.com.
BMW's Techo-Flagship i8.
Here's more information on BMW's new drool-worthy plug-in hybrid from
the future. I can be yours - if you get a second mortgage on the house.
Details from
Gizmag: "
BMW's "sportscar of the future" is about to begin customer deliveries. The i8
is a plug-in hybrid with a short fully electric range, 112 miles per
gallon hybrid efficiency and a very feisty, 357 horsepower, all wheel
drive sports mode that fires it to 60 mph in four and a half seconds.
It's a very clever piece of engineering and a beautiful piece of
futurist auto art – a stepping stone between the oil age and the
electric future. Take a closer look in our huge photo gallery and video
overview..."
A Cartographic Guide To Starbuck's Global Domination.
I'm more of a Caribou-guy, but I've spent a small fortune at Starbucks
as well - they're getting harder to avoid, worldwide. Here's an excerpt
of an interesting piece at
Quartz: "...
Unsurprisingly,
Starbucks shops tend to pop up around densely populated areas of the
US. But outside of urban centers in wealthier countries, there’s plenty
of territory that the vanillia-chai-skinny-latte has not yet
claimed. Vast swaths of the US, not to mention the rest of the
world, are untouched by the Starbucks green-siren logo..."
Climate Stories...
Carbon Dioxide Passes Global 400 ppm Milestone.
Climate Central has an update; here's the introduction: "...
A new carbon dioxide milestone
has been reached according to the World Meteorological Agency. Average
carbon dioxide measurements at all monitoring stations in the northern
hemisphere were above 400 parts per million for the month of April, the
first time that’s been recorded in human history. Previous reports
from the Mauna Loa Observatory, the longest continually running CO2
monitoring site in the world, showed that the average CO2 concentration
for April was above 400 ppm. On Monday, the WMO
reported that the 11 other northern hemisphere monitoring stations that
continuously monitor CO2 also surpassed the 400 ppm mark for the month..."
Graphic credit above: "
The location and April average CO2 levels measured at 12 World Meteorological Organization monitoring stations around the globe." Data: World Meteorological Organization.
Obama To Offer Rules To Sharply Curb Power Plants' Carbon Emissions.
The New York Times has an update; here's the introduction: "
President
Obama will use his executive authority to propose a global warming
regulation that would cut carbon pollution from the nation’s coal-fired
power plants by up to 20 percent and pave the way for the creation of
state cap-and-trade programs without having to go through a reluctant
Congress, according to people familiar with the rule. The proposed
regulation, written by the Environmental Protection Agency and set to be
unveiled Monday by Mr. Obama at the White House, would be the strongest
action ever taken by an American president to tackle climate change and
could become one of the defining elements of Mr. Obama’s legacy..."
Climate Change a Top Priority, Says ExxonMobil CEO.
I had to pick myself up off the floor after reading this one. The CEO
of ExxonMobile acknowledging man-made climate change? I want to give
anyone the benefit of a doubt, and the ability to change their mind
based on data and facts on the ground. Will technological innovation
save us from ourselves? Here's an excerpt from Natural Gas Intelligence: "...He
(ExxonMobile CEO Rex Tillerson) asked shareholders to "rightfully
acknowledge" that climate change "is the most complex area of scientific
and social conversation anyone's having today. It is extremely complex.
And it is one that's not going to be a ready set of solutions that are
going to fit the world's peoples because the world's peoples all have
varying needs in this stage of their development, which is why it makes
it so complex. "We do support and engage in, and will continue to engage
in, active dialogue." Among other things, ExxonMobil scientists have
continued to be actively engaged with the United Nations'
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said Tillerson..."
Beetles and Climate Change Helped Create This Huge Wildfire in Alaska. Meteorologist Eric Holthaus explains at Slate; here's a clip: "...This
particular fire has grown so large as a result of “years of spruce bark
beetle infestation,” he told me. The bugs have killed and weakened
countless trees in this area, creating more kindling. That’s forced fire
command agencies to take a step back and essentially let the fire burn,
for safety reasons: “You can’t put people into an area where a bunch of
trees have died and fallen.” The U.S. Forest Service predicts
that “the greatest risk to spruce forests over the next 30 years will
be in Alaska,” as spruce beetles expand their attack on trees..."
File photo above: "
Trees
turning red in forests that have been attacked by the mountain pine
beetles in Montana, July 7, 2011. Some scientists are increasingly
worried that as the warming accelerates, trees themselves could become
climate change victims on a massive scale." (Josh Haner/The New York Times).
Government's Weather Forecasters Shouldn't Discuss Climate Change, Says Environment Canada. Here's an excerpt of an interesting post from
Mike De Souza: "
Weather
forecasters at Environment Canada aren’t supposed to discuss climate
change in public, says a Canadian government spokesman. Environment
Canada made the comments in response to emailed questions about its
communications policy. The department defended its policy by suggesting
that Environment Canada meteorologists – among the most widely-quoted
group of government experts in media reports and broadcasts – weren’t
qualified to answer questions about climate change. “Environment Canada
scientists speak to their area of expertise,” said spokesman Mark
Johnson in an email..."
Water and Conflict in Syria.
Can prolonged drought, made worse by climate change, increase the
potential for hunger-fueled revolution? Our military seems to be taking
the threat seriously; here's an excerpt of an article at
Huffington Post: "
Starting
in 2006 and lasting through 2011, Syria suffered the worst long-term
drought and the most severe set of crop failures in recorded history. In
a new research paper, I've looked at the role of regional drought,
unsustainable water management policies, and climatic conditions in
contributing to the severe conflict in Syria in the past few years (see
the peer-reviewed paper "Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in
Syria" by Dr. Peter H. Gleick, coming out in the July issue -- and here online -- in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society. A press release on this paper is now available, here).
Many factors influenced the civil war in Syria, including long-standing
political, religious, and ideological disputes; economic dislocations
from both global and regional factors; and the consequences of water
shortages influenced by drought, ineffective watershed management, and
the growing influence of climate variability and change..."
As Trends Worsen, Time To Plan For Wildfire In The West. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed in
The Denver Post: "...
Already,
wildland firefighting costs the Forest Service and Bureau of Land
Management an average of $3 billion per year. That's triple the amount
from a decade ago. At least a third of the bill goes to defend private
homes. In the last 10 years, the acres burned per fire doubled and the
average fire burned twice as long. Since 2010, the number of structures
destroyed tripled and firefighter fatalities rose fourfold. These
trends will worsen because of climate change and continued home
building of fire-prone lands. The fire season is on average two months
longer since the 1970s. In Montana, recent records show a one-degree
Fahrenheit increase in summertime temperatures more than doubles both
the area burned and the cost to defend homes..."
File photo: Rick Rycroft, AP.
Why "Global Warming" is Scarier than "Climate Change". Which term is most likely to get the attention of the public, and why? Here's an excerpt from
Time Magazine: "
The two terms may seem synonymous, but one generates much more engagement than the other. A quick check of the TIME.com archives
reveals that I’ve used the term “global warming” in 545 posts, videos
and articles—not counting this one. And the term “climate change”? 852 times. That’s not surprising. While the two terms are largely synonymous—which is why there are 472 posts
where I use both—”climate change” has become the preferred term for
scientists because it better describes the long-term changes in the
planet’s climate, which go well beyond simple temperature increase.
Scientists use it, and so have I, but most of the time I simply rotate
the two terms for variety’s sake..."
The Wall Street Journal Denies The 97% Scientific Consensus on Human-Caused Global Warming. Here's a snippet from a story at
The Guardian: "
Rupert Murdoch’s The Wall Street Journal editorial page has long published op-eds denying basic climate science. This week, they published an editorial
denying the 97% expert scientific consensus that humans are causing
global warming. The editorial may have been published as a damage
control effort in the wake of John Oliver’s brilliant and hilarious global warming debate viral video, which has now surpassed 3 million views. After all, fossil fuel interests and Republican political strategists have been waging a campaign to obscure public awareness of the expert consensus on global warming for nearly three decades..."
Rick Scott Won't Say If He Thinks Man-Made Climate Change Is Real, Significant. Here's an excerpt of an interview with the governor of Florida at
The Miami Herald Blog: "...
Q:
In 2011 or 2010, you were much more doubtful about climate change. Now
you’re sounding less doubtful about man-made climate change because now
you’re not saying ‘Look, I doubt the science.’ Now you’re saying: ‘I’m
not a scientist.’ Am I right in guessing that?
Scott:
“Well, I’m not a scientist. But I can tell you what we’ve accomplished.
We put a lot of effort into making sure that we take care of our natural
treasures – the Everglades, making sure water flows south, any flooding
around our coast. So we’re doing the right thing.”
Question (asked by citizen-activist): So do you believe in the man-made influence on climate change?
Scott: “Nice seeing you guys.”
Read
more here:
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/05/rick-scott-wont-say-if-he-thinks-man-made-climate-change-is-real-significant.html#storylink=cpy
Bill Maher Responds to Pat Sajak. Here's a clip from an online rebuke of Pat Sajak's moronic tweet last week - courtesy of HBO and
Mediaite: "...
Maher
found it ironic how Sajak’s show is basically about pieces of a puzzle
pointing to one obvious answer, but “when that happens with scientific
consensus, he wants to take another spin.” He told Sajak when his
grandchildren solve the puzzle that is climate change, it’ll read,
“Granddad was an idiot.”
