Looking Up
Imagine
if the Twins, Vikings, Timberwolves and Wild lost EVERY game, and you
were the poor schlub-of-a-sportscaster who has to report on what
happened & why. Over time this perpetual losing streak would begin
to eat away at your soul.
As meteorologists we're trained to take
an objective look at the data; take emotion out of the equation. Just
issue the best forecast you can. That looks good on paper, but when the
weather is foul for extended periods of time - and nearly everyone you
talk to is ranting about "this crummy pattern!" - it wears on you.
A foul forecast fatigue sets in.
So
I'm as happy as the next guy to see Mother Nature turning the page. May
is finally popping up on the maps and 80F should feel like a revelation
by the weekend.
Lingering fog and low-level crud kept us a bit
cooler than predicted yesterday, but a puff of drier, slightly cooler
Canadian air treats us to sunshine the rest of the week. No frost this
time around.
A return southerly flow of humid air sparks T-storms
Sunday and Memorial Day. If the sun peeks out for even an hour or two
(likely) we'll see highs at or just above 80F. In fact we may see 80s
much of next week with sporadic outbreaks of T-storms, some capable of
minor flash flooding as a warm front stalls nearby.
In the blog below: lousy weather is good for job productivity and globally, April tied 2010 for the warmest on record.
Gradual Warming Trend.
Memorial Day weekend doesn't look quite as warm as it did yesterday,
but I still see upper 70s to near 80F from Saturday into Memorial Day.
T-storms may keep us a bit cooler, especially Sunday, which appears to
be the wettest day right now with the most widespread T-storm outbreak.
ECMWF data suggests a streak of 80s next week. You remember 80s, right?
84 Hour Future Radar.
HAMweather visualization of NOAA's NAM data shows showers and T-storms,
some severe, popping up across the Ohio Valley today, pushing into the
Mid Atlantic. A plume of moisture pushing out of the Gulf of Mexico may
drop significant rains on drought-plagued regions of Texas and Oklahoma;
T-storms reaching the Upper Midwest again by late Saturday and Sunday.
Slight Risk.
NOAA SPC shows a slight threat of severe storms today from Denver east
to St. Louis, Louisville, Columbus and Washington D.C. - storms firing
along an active frontal boundary by mid and late afternoon.
April 2014 Ties 2010 For Warmest On Record, Worldwide.
And the first 4 months of 2014 were the 6th warmest on record. A strong
El Nino forecast for the latter half of 2014 may cause global
temperatures to spike even more. Here are more details from
NOAA NCDC:
- The
combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for
April 2014 tied with 2010 as the highest on record for the month, at
0.77°C (1.39°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F).
- The
global land surface temperature was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 20th
century average of 8.1°C (46.5°F), marking the third warmest April on
record. For the ocean, the April global sea surface temperature was
0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20th century average of 16.0°C (60.9°F), also
the third highest for April on record.
- The combined
global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–April
period (year-to-date) was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century
average of 12.6°C (54.8°F), the sixth warmest such period on record.
Are We Overdue For A Major Hurricane?
The short answer is yes. It's been 9 years since a Category 3 or
stronger hurricane hit the U.S. coastline (Wilma in 2005). Among other
fears: complacency. It's been so quiet, maybe we let our guard down a
little. In today's
Climate Matters, new features and capabilities from NHC in 2014, who remind us all that "it only takes one storm": "
WeatherNationTV
Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas goes over the unusually quiet past few
years for hurricanes in the Atlantic. Statistically we are vastly
overdue for another major hurricane. Why has the Atlantic been so quiet?"
New Hurricane Tools and Capabilities in 2014. NHC will be issuing operational
storm surge forecasts if and when a tropical system approaches the coast, but I found a few other interesting nuggets
here.
Sample NOAA NHC Storm Surge Forecast.
No, residents of Tampa don't need to be concerned, at least not yet.
Keep in mind most of the structural damage from hurricanes doesn't come
from high winds, but from the "storm surge", a rapid rise in water
levels triggered by sustained winds and low pressure, pushing water well
inland. This year NHC will begin issuing surge predictions based on a
storm's track, intensity, natural tides and bathymetric data (slope of
terrain just offshore).
How Might El Nino Affect Hurricane Season? In clip #2 of
Climate Matters:
statistically El Nino summers and falls tend to increase wind shear
over the tropics, resulting in fewer tropical storms and hurricanes. But
that's no reason for complacency - we've had a nearly 9 year lull in
hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean, but at some point
America's luck will run out. Will 2014 be the year? "
The last major
hurricane to hit the United States was Wilma in 2005. Since then the
tropics have been *relatively* quiet, and that is leading some
meteorologists to worry. WeatherNationTV Chief Meteorologist Paul
Douglas goes over just why we shouldn't let our guard down."
Massive Wildfires Cause For Concern In Oklahoma. Here's an excerpt from
The Daily Ardmoreite in Ardmore, Oklahoma: "
Wildfires
in Oklahoma so far this month have burned more than 60 times the
average acreage, according to data from the Oklahoma Forestry Services.
Since 2005, the state has averaged 454 acres burned from May wildfires.
So far this month, more than 30,000 acres have burned, The Oklahoman
reported Sunday. Guthrie Fire Chief Eric Harlow says that if things
don't change, fire crews will be in for a long summer. "We shouldn't
have this fire behavior the first week of May," he said...."
File Photo credit above: "
Firefighters
work to extinguish a flare up on Monday, May 5, 2014, in Guthrie, Okla.
Gov. Mary Fallin has declared a state emergency across Oklahoma after
several wildfires broke out across the state, including a blaze north of
Oklahoma City that destroyed at least a half dozen homes and left one
man dead." (AP Photo/Nick Oxford).
Forest Services Expands Fire-Fighting Tanker Fleet.
Under the extenuating conditions (historic drought from California to
Texas and Oklahoma) this strikes me as a prudent move. Here's an excerpt
from AP and
ABC News: "
As
the Obama administration pushes Congress to ensure that enough money is
available to fight destructive wildfires, the U.S. Forest Service
announced Tuesday it was adding four aircraft to its firefighting fleet
ahead of what's expected to be another hot, dry summer in the West. In a
statement, the service said it will have a second DC10 and three
smaller planes in service in the coming weeks to support over 10,000
firefighters "in the face of what is shaping up to be a catastrophic
fire season in the southwest..."
Monitoring The State of Global Rainfall and Drought.
redOrbit
has an interesting story about pushing the science to be able to
accurately predict drought, months in advance. Here's an excerpt: "...
A
team of researchers from UC Santa Barbara and the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a new dataset that can be used
for environmental and drought earl warning. The dataset is called
CHIRPS, or Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations,
and it is the result of a collaboration between UCSB's Climate Hazards
Group and USGS's Earth Resources Observations and Science (EROS). CHIRPS
combines space observed rainfall data with more than three decades of
ground station data collected worldwide..."
Image Credit:
Thinkstock.com
Can Poor Air Quality Lead To Pregnancy and Birth Complications? Here's an excerpt of a (sponsored) story at
The Salt Lake Tribune: "...
The
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency offers similar advice and has also
researched the health effects of bad air on pregnant women and
newborns. In a report titled "Promoting Good Prenatal Health: Air
Pollution and Pregnancy," the EPA warns that prenatal exposure to
pollutants increases risk of preterm delivery and low birth weight —
factors that can compound to other problems for babies, including
developmental disabilities later on..."
El Nino: Is 2014 The New 1997? NASA Science
has an update on what may turn into a significant warming of equatorial
Pacific Ocean water; here's a video and story excerpt: "
Every ten
days, the NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite maps all the
world's oceans, monitoring changes in sea surface height, a measure of
heat in the upper layers of the water. Because our planet is more than
70% ocean, this information is crucial to global forecasts of weather
and climate. Lately, Jason-2 has seen something brewing in the
Pacific—and it looks a lot like 1997. "A pattern of sea surface heights
and temperatures has formed that reminds me of the way the Pacific
looked in the spring of 1997," says Bill Patzert, a climatologist at
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "That turned out to be the precursor
of a big El Niño..."
A
team of researchers from UC Santa Barbara and the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a new dataset that can be used
for environmental monitoring and
drought
early warning. The dataset is called CHIRPS, or Climate Hazards Group
Infrared Precipitation with Stations, and it is the result of a
collaboration between UCSB’s
Climate Hazards Group and USGS’s Earth Resources Observation and Science (
EROS). CHIRPS combines space observed rainfall data with more than three decades of ground station data collected worldwide.
Read more at
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113148141/drought-and-rain-monitoring-chirps-051614/#fAijzheZX6rIZfy5.99Can Poor Air Quality Lead To Pregnancy and Birth Complications? Here's an excerpt of a (sponsored) story at
The Salt Lake Tribune: "...
The
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency offers similar advice and has also
researched the health effects of bad air on pregnant women and
newborns. In a report titled "Promoting Good Prenatal Health: Air
Pollution and Pregnancy," the EPA warns that prenatal exposure to
pollutants increases risk of preterm delivery and low birth weight —
factors that can compound to other problems for babies, including
developmental disabilities later on..."
Strongest El Nino in 17 Years Brewing: Oregon Weather Watch.
OregonLive.com has more data from NASA on a pending El Nino event, which may be the most significant since 1997-98. Here's an excerpt: "
NASA satellites and ocean sensors
are showing that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean this May look similar to the conditions in May 1997 that resulted
in one of the strongest El Niño events of the last century during the fall and winter of 1997-98..."
How El Nino Might Alter The Political Climate. Here's a snippet from The Upshot at
The New York Times: "...
But
El Niño has the potential to do more than offer a one-time jolt to
climate activists. It could unleash a new wave of warming that could
shape the debate for a decade, or longer. In this chain of events, a
strong El Niño causes a shift in a longer cycle known as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, which favors more frequent and intense El Niños
during its “warm” or “positive” phase. The oscillation has been
“negative” or “cool” since the historic El Niño of 1998..."
This Is What's Actually Making Your Horribly Unproductive. Confirming our suspicions that spring fever can distract us from the task at hand; here's a clip from a story at
TIME.com: "...
If
you think gloomy weather saps your motivation, you’re not alone; more
than 80% of people surveyed by researchers thought so. But the authors
of this new study found out the opposite is actually true: Good weather
makes us want to go do fun things, and thinking about what we’d rather
be doing distracts us from what we should be doing. Career and workplace
experts have some suggestions for how to keep “spring fever” from
infecting your job performance on nice days..."
UW-Madison Captures Video of "Fire Rainbow".
I found this interesting - "fire rainbows" are only visible close to
the summer solstice. Here's an explanation and video clip from
WXOW.com in La Crosse: "...
This
week UW-Madison shared a video and photo of what experts are calling a
rare rainbow imposter showing up in the sky on Thursday. UW
meteorologists say a 'fire rainbow' is an atmospheric phenomenon known
as a circumhorizontal arc, often mistaken for a rainbow because of its
colors. "They're not all that common but they're not completely rare,
either," says Steve Ackerman, director of the UW-Madison Cooperative
Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. "I've only seen a
half-dozen in my lifetime here in Madison..."
The Worst Day Of My Life Is Now New York's Hottest Tourist Attraction. The author of this story at
Buzzfeed
lost his sister in the 9/11 terrorist attack of The World Trade Towers.
Here is an excerpt of the article he wrote after entering the
9/11 Memorial Museum for the first time: "...
I
am allowed to enter the 9/11 Museum a few days before this week’s grand
opening for the general public, but why would I want that? Why would I
accept an invitation to a roughly $350 million, 110,000-square-foot
refutation of everything we tried to practice, a gleaming monument to
What Happened, not What Happened to Us? Something snapped while reading about the gift shop
— I didn’t want to duck and hide, I wanted to run straight into the
absurdity and horror and feel every bit of the righteous indignation and
come out the other side raw..."
How Far Your Paycheck Goes in 356 U.S. Cities.
Planet Money at NPR
has an interesting story about just how far your paycheck really goes -
the amount you make vs. cost of living factors. Here's an excerpt: "...
So
what you really want to know is this: How much do workers make in
different cities? And how far does that money go in each city? The that
lets us dive into these questions. In the graph below, the left-hand
side shows the annual income for typical, full-time workers in different
metro areas. The right-hand side adjusts that figure for the cost of
living in each metro area..."
New "Dual Carbon" Battery Charges 20 Times Faster Than Li-ion.
Will new innovations and technological breakthroughs continue to make
renewable power cheaper and accelerate adoption? Right now I wouldn't
bet against the trends, as Moore's Law applies to solar, wind and other
(clean) forms of energy. An even bigger question is whether most of
these breakthroughs will originate in the USA or elsewhere? Here's a
clip from an article at
Gizmag: "
Japanese
company Power Japan Plus has announced the development and planned
mass-production of "Ryden," a disruptive carbon battery that can be
charged 20 times faster than an ordinary lithium-ion cell. The battery,
which is cheap to manufacture, safe, and environmentally friendly, could
be ideal to improve the range and charging times of electric cars..."
This Will Make You Never, Ever Want To Get In A Hot Tub Again. Just wake me up when it's safe to come out of my bunker.
Huffington Post has a story that was not sponsored by America's hot tub manufacturers. Here's an excerpt: "...
While
hot tub rash typically clears up on its own without treatment, another
more serious condition to be aware of is the potentially fatal Legionnaires’ disease,
a type of pneumonia caused by a germ called Legionella, which is found
in water (especially warm water) and can be breathed in from the steam
or mist surrounding a contaminated hot tub -- people older than age 50, smokers and those with weakened immune systems are particularly susceptible..."
Netflix's Vision For 2025: 48 Million Channels. And still nothing worthwhile to watch? We'll see.
Wired.com
has the story and interview; here's an excerpt: "...According to Hunt,
this will change with internet TV. He said Netflix is now working to
perfect its personalization technology to the point where users will no
longer have to choose what they want to watch from a grid of shows and
movies. Instead, the recommendation engine will be so finely tuned that
it will show users “one or two suggestions that perfectly fit what they
want to watch now.” “I think this vision is possible,” Hunt said. “We’ve
come a long way towards it, and we have a ways to go still.”
Sorry, But There's No Such Thing As A "Healthy" Sugar.
But wait, I read just the opposite on the Internet. Sugar is GOOD for
me, in large doses, preferably in processed food and Halloween candy.
This article at
Huffington Post will most certainly add to the confusion; here's the introduction: "
We
hate to be the bearers of bad news, but we feel the need to clarify a
common misconception: There's no such thing as a "healthy" sugar. Or
even a "less bad" sugar. Your body doesn't care if it's "organic" or
"unrefined" or "all-natural," and it certainly doesn't care if Gwyneth
Paltrow deems it suitable for her children's consumption. Done
hyperventilating? Now let's delve into the nutritional science behind
this..."
Climate Stories...
* thanks to science writer Greg Laden for passing this one along. I'm no rocket scientist, but even I can solve this one, Pat.
Weathercasters Grapple With Climate Change.
No kidding. You have 3 minutes to discuss the (increasingly toxic)
weather, and, oh, by the way, can you squeeze a little climate science
in? Mission impossible, at least the way a typical local TV newscast is
structured today. Here's an excerpt from a story at
TVNewsCheck: "...
But
whether the administration reached out to the right people to cover the
highly charged issue depends on whom you ask. Even the weathercasters
who went to the White House are not sure covering climate change should
be part of their jobs. “I wish climatologists were doing this and not
me. They know their stuff,” says Bill Martin, chief meteorologist at
KTVU, the Cox-owned Fox affiliate in San Francisco (DMA 6). “I am not
super comfortable talking about climate change. I am super comfortable
talking weather,” says Martin, who was caught so off-guard by the
administration’s invite that he didn’t even bother returning the initial
calls, figuring they were pranks..."
Climate Change, Forest Fires Drove Widespread Surface Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet. Other factors come into play, beyond warming temperatures, according to this post at
phys.org; here's a clip: "
Rising
temperatures and ash from Northen Hemisphere forest fires combined to
cause large-scale surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet in 1889 and
2012, contradicting conventional thinking that the melt events were
driven by warming along, a Dartmouth College-led study finds. The
findings suggest that continued climate change will result in nearly
annual widespread melting of the ice sheet's surface by the year 2100,
and that a positive feedback mechanism may be set in motion..."
Photo credit above: "
This
image shows Kaitlin Keegan, the study's lead author and a Dartmouth
doctoral student, examining the melt layers of the Greenland ice sheet
at the summit." Credit: Kaitlin Keegan.
ESA's CryoSat Data: Antarctica's Ice Sheet Shrinking Faster Than Ever. Here's an excerpt from a good explainer at
gizmag.com: "...
The
UK-based Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling analyzed data
collected over three years (by nearly continuous surveillance) from
CryoSat, to create the world's first comprehensive assessment of
elevation change in the Antarctic ice sheets. Results of the analysis
found that ice loss in the polar region was 31 percent greater than that
of the previous period of observation (from 2005-2011), with
substantial thinning of the ice in the Amundsen Sea area of West
Antarctica..."
Graphic credit above: "
Recent observations of Antarctica suggest as much as 159 billion tonnes of ice is lost each year." (Image: CPOM/Leeds/ESA).
Evangelicals in Florida Turn To Climate Change And Call on Gov. Scott To Act.
Full disclosure: I'm on the board of EEN, the Evangelical Environmental
Network. It's President, Rev. Mitch Hescox, was recently quoted in the
Tampa Bay Times; here's an excerpt of what he had to say: "..
.Among
the panelists is the Rev. Mich Hescox, president of the Evangelical
Environmental Network, who wrote a letter to Rubio about his widely
publicized comments doubting man’s contribution to climate change.
Hescox is also gathering signatures for a petition aimed at Scott.
“As Christians, we believe that God's grace empowers us to honestly
confront the challenges we face and change for the better,” it reads.
“We are failing to keep our air and water clean for our children,
contributing to a changing climate that most hurts the world's poor, and
putting Floridians at risk as temperatures and sea levels continue to
rise. To meet these challenges, we need leaders who understand our duty
to God’s creation and future generations..."
National Landmarks Threatened By Climate Change.
USA TODAY has the article; here's an excerpt: "...
The
report, which was not a peer-reviewed study, includes 30 at-risk
locations, including places where the "first Americans" lived, the
Spaniards ruled, English colonists landed, slavery rose and fell, and
gold prospectors struck it rich. Locations include the Statue of
Liberty; Jamestown, Va.; the Cape Hatteras (N.C.) Lighthouse; and the
Kennedy Space Center. "You can almost trace the history of the United
States through these sites," says Adam Markham, director of climate
impacts at UCS and report co-author..."
Graphic credit above: Union of Concerned Scientists; Note: NM = National Monument. Janet Loehrke, USA TODAY.
Pat Sajak's Tweet, and subsequent comments on Twitter are
here.
A Response. Climate scientist Michael Mann's Twitter comments are
here.
European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 Satellite: Antarctica Shedding 160 Billion Tons of Ice A Year. Here's a clip from
Daily Kos that I wasn't aware of: "...
Antarctica
is shedding 160 billion tonnes a year of ice into the ocean, twice the
amount of a few years ago, according to new satellite observations. The
ice loss is adding to the rising sea levels driven by climate change and
even east Antarctica is now losing ice. The new revelations follows the
announcement last week that the collapse of the western Antarctica ice sheet has already begun and is unstoppable, although it may take many centuries to complete..."
The Melting Isn't Glacial.
Are we at a tipping point - or is the news coming out of West
Antarctica and Greenland more "alarmist hype"? Are you willing to roll
the dice? Here's a clip from a story at
The New York Times: "...
The
ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland together possess about 100 times
as much ice as all of the mountain glaciers combined, but contribute
only slightly more to the sea level rise: 310 billion tons a year, Dr.
Scambos said. That is because most of the mountain glaciers lie in areas
where temperatures are closer to the melting point than they are in
Greenland or Antarctica, and so slight warming tips them to melting.
Greenland, with 10 percent of the world’s ice, has enough to raise sea
level by 23 feet. “I still think Greenland is the most important thing
to watch for this century,” Dr. Scambos said..."
Photo credits above: "Muir
Glacier at Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in Alaska is among
the many worldwide that are disappearing. Muir, left, as seen in August
1941, and photographed in August 2004." Credit W. Field; B. Molnia/U.S.G.S. via Glacier Photograph Collection.
Climate Change: Get Ready or Get Sued.
What are the liability implications of climate change, specifically the
trend toward heavier summer downpours and more extreme flooding east of
the Mississippi? The insurance industry and lawyers far and wide will
be keeping a close eye on this case in Chicago's suburbs. Here's an
excerpt of a story at
The Washington Post: "...
This
is a new kind of storm associated with climate change,” Tom LaPorte,
spokesman for the Chicago Department of Water Management, told Medill Reports on
day two of the April flood. Extreme flooding is part of a pattern that
has emerged in the last two decades, according to Illinois State
climatologist Jim Angel. Now a major insurance company is suing
Chicago-area municipal governments saying they knew of the risks posed
by climate change and should have been better prepared. The class-action
lawsuits raise the question of who is liable for the costs of global
warming..."
YouTube video credit above: "
Flooding
of the Des Plaines River in Des Plaines , IL. the weather overcast and
severe thunder storms. Over 5 inches of rain in less than 12 hours.
Temps in the 60s." Filmed by Ed Pilar for
8desplaines.com.
The People of Miami Know About Climate Change. We're Living It.
You no longer need a hurricane or even a coastal storm or thunderstorm
downpours to get flooding in Miami. Now it often floods at high tide, a
rising tide at that. Here's an excerpt from a story at
The Guardian: "...
People
in Miami Beach are living climate change," said David Nolan, a
meteorology and physical oceanography professor at the University of
Miami. "They're on the frontline." The people of Miami Beach didn't need
the National Climate Assessment to tell them low-lying south Florida is
"exceptionally vulnerable to sea level rise". The city is already
spending $206m to overhaul its drainage system. The day after the White
House released its climate change report, Miami-Dade County's commission
passed a 6 May resolution that calls on planners to account for sea
level rise. Local officials across the four counties of south Florida
are making similar moves. Almost anyone who lives in south Florida has a
nagging fear about climate change. It's both abstract and, at times,
very real..."
Photo credit above: "
Bozon Jeremie, a
tourist from France, crosses a flooded intersection during high tide in
Miami Beach, Fla., Nov. 6, 2013. A new scientific report on global
warming released in 2014 by the National Climate Assessment named Miami
as one of the cities most vulnerable to severe damage as a result of
rising sea levels." (Angel Valentin/The New York Times).
Global Warming Responsible for Increased Wildfires in California? If this is, in fact, a "natural cycle" it's one heck of a coincidence. Here's an excerpt from a story at
Headline & Global News: "...
Global
warming also contributes largely to mega-fires, which occur when
multiple wildfires combine together to form a larger, deadlier blaze,
and the size of these fires makes it difficult for containment. In the
last decade, the occurrence of such fires has increased in frequency.
According to Global Change,
about 6.4 million acres have been burned per year on an average since
2010, amounting to a 3.5 million acres increase since the 1980s. Many
studies have also highlighted that global warming also increases
wildfires indirectly. This climate change leads to other factors that
promote wildfires, such as drought and insect outbreaks..."
File Photo credit: "
Smoke
plumes rise behind the Marine Corps Camp Pendleton entrance Friday, May
16, 2014, in Oceanside, Calif. San Diego County officials said Friday
five wildfires have been 100 percent contained. Still, crews were
focusing efforts on two large fires — one in the city of San Marcos and
two blazes at the Marine Corps' Camp Pendleton." (AP Photo/Gregory Bull).
