Over The Edge
"Paul, my parents came back from Arizona in April, thinking they were home free. Now they're threatening to never return north to the Land of 10,000 Weather Disappointments!" I'm hearing this a lot. People fed up by our 7-month winter, deflated by our cool, wet (late) spring and no-show summer. Will there be a few thousand additional snowbirds come December? Probably.
The reality: most of our winters since the late 90s have been pretty easy, but every now and then Mother Nature spanks us pretty hard.
A cool bias is keeping the most severe T-storms just to our south today; we'll get grazed by a few morning showers - skies brighten this afternoon, and Thursday will restore your faith in June. The next unstable swirl of cold air aloft sparks random T-storms late Friday into Sunday evening.
It won't rain all weekend, in fact most of the time should be dry with highs in the 70s. A string of 80s return next week. If this keeps up June will arrive..sometime in July.
Try to keep some perspective: Arizona is an oven. Florida's lovely, except for Texas-size storms with names. California's a relief, when the ground isn't shaking violently. 2013 has brought annoying weather. But it could always be worse.
5 Day Rainfall. Conditions are ripe for severe (training) thunderstorms - passing over the same counties of the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Northeast by Thursday and Friday. Too much water east of the Mississippi, while wildfires grow in size and intensity from Colorado into New Mexico.
Weekend Preview. ECMWF model guidance (WSI) shows morning showers and T-storms Saturday giving way to partial clearing by midday and afternoon. A dry start Sunday may give way to a few instability T-showers by midday and afternoon Sunday. Trying to time weekend T-storms, 3-4 days in advance, is a fool's errand.
Trending Warmer - Slowly But Slowly. No heat spikes until the end of next week, when highs may surge into the 90s. Until then a southerly detour of the jet stream will keep highs in the 70s and 80s. ECMWF forecast highs above in Celsius.
Heat Spike Late Next Week? Denver saw 100 F. Tuesday, the earliest 100-degree high on record. Intense heat is likely from the Central Plains into the Rockies and Southwest for the next 1-2 weeks, ECMWF data hinting at 90s surging northward next week. The way this year is going I'm not holding my breath.
• Long term projections, known as convective outlooks, which show the risk of severe weather up to eight days in advance across large parts of the country; and...
• Tornado and severe thunderstorm watches, which are issued up to eight hours in advance for state-sized areas..."
Photo credit above: "The Gulfstream V is readied to take off on a mission to study Tropical Storm Gaston in 2010. This is the same aircraft used in the MPEX project this spring." (Photo: NCAR).
Photo credit above: Alonzo Adams / The Associated Press. "The National Weather Service has upgraded the deadly tornado that struck near Oklahoma City last week to a top-of-the-scale EF5 twister, which packed winds reaching 295 mph. The weather service also says the twister's 2.6-mile width is the widest ever recorded."
Image credit above: "The path of the tornado that hit near El Reno, Okla., a suburb of Oklahoma City, on May 31, 2013. The tornado was judged by researchers to have been an EF5 at its peak and to have reached 2.6 miles wide at its peak (marked on the map)." Credit: NWS/NOAA.
Photo credit above: "Can this little thing really ride hurricane winds?" Photo courtesy of the University of Florida.
FEMA and the National Weather Service use the following terms to announce flood information:
- Flood Watch: Flooding is possible. Tune in to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or local television for updated information.
- Flash Flood Watch: Flash flooding is possible. Be prepared to move to higher ground. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information..."
Photo credit above: NOAA.
Image credit above: "The largest solar storm in five years erupted in March 2012, sending charged particles toward Earth with the potential to disrupt power grids, navigation systems and satellites." / AP