The weather forecast is rarely black or white. It's usually some cruel shade of gray. Your home is right on the rain-snow line; you're on the edge of the rain or precariously close to the front.
We sometimes give a probability of precipitation, but this can be confusing. A 30 percent chance of showers doesn't mean rain over 30 percent of the area, or rain 30 percent of the time. It means that on 3 out of 10 days one location will see a trace of rain.
This weekend will be better than last, although that's a pretty low bar. A frontal passage fires off a few T-storms, mainly southern MN. The best chance of puddles: south of MSP, especially morning and midday. A northwest breeze should begin to clear skies by afternoon, especially central and northern lakes.
Sunday still looks like the sunnier, warmer day statewide, with some low 80s. June, the way it was probably meant to be at this latitude.
Dry weather prevails the first half of next week; more storms possible by Thursday, again a week from today. Of course!
A southerly dip in the jet stream has meant more frequent changes, only 24-36 hours of dry weather between fronts or storms. It's almost as if Mother Nature has picked up her remote control and put our weather on fast-forward!
Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet. NOAA's high-res HRRR model shows a few clusters of showers and T-storms popping this afternoon. The map above is valid 3 pm this afternoon. Most of today will be dry, but watch for an hour or two of rain this afternoon, with the best chance of T-storms from the metro on south and east.
Drying Out A Bit. The epicenter of wetness shifts into the Middle Mississippi valley and Mid South in the coming days, as well as the Pacific Northwest. The pattern appears slightly drier for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. QPF map courtesy of NOAA.
Limping Into Summer. Low 80s will feel good today and Sunday; a few T-storms Sunday night marking the leading edge of slightly cooler air early next week. A few 80s return by the end of next week (along with more humidity and scattered T-storms), but no scorching heat is in sight. ECMWF model highs above in Celsius. As if you couldn't figure that out.
From Too Dry To Too Wet - Some Farmers Are Not Happy. Here's an excerpt from this week's edition of Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk Newsletter: "...The rainfall and wet soils have resulted in prevented planting for some corn fields, where producers will be able to collect crop insurance payments if they don't plant corn. Others may opt to plant corn, but not for grain, just for silage to feed livestock. Some soybeans are still being planted late, along with some late planting of alfalfa fields which were so adversely affected by winter stress. Alfalfa hay cutting has progressed very slowly with little of the hay harvest completed..."
This wind driven fire moved very quickly the first day and destroyed aproximately 360 structures and also caused the immediate evacuation of several thousand residents. Assessment of structures is ongoing and will be updated when additional information is available. There are numerous interagency resources assigned to the fire with others arriving daily.
|Date of Origin||Tuesday June 11th, 2013 approx. 02:30 PM|
|Location||Within the City limits of Black Forest Colorado|
|Incident Commander||Rich Harvey|
|Estimated Containment Date||Thursday June 20th, 2013 approx. 12:00 AM|
* The PBS NewsHour has more on Colorado's most destructive wildfire in it's history here.
Photo credit: Eyevine.
* the story at The Oklahoman is here.
Photo credit above: "Even after Panama's canal expansion is complete, Nicaragua's would be bigger." AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco
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* the PDF report referenced above is here.
Photo credit above: "This photo shows the ice front of Venable Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, in October 2008." Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UC Irvine
Photo credit above: "For example, the administration’s vehicle fuel-efficiency standards would cost industry $350 billion over the next 40 years, while benefits in energy security, less congestion and lower pollution totaled $278 billion." Photographer: Reed Saxon/AP Photo.