Welcome to the 19th chilliest spring since 1873, according to Pete Boulay at the Climate Office. One benefit of June cool fronts? They tend to put a damper on severe weather. We've gotten the rain, without the hail and wailing tornado sirens.
Southern Minnesota has experienced 3 small tornadoes; only 1 in Wisconsin in 2013 - a southward dip in the jet stream nudging the strongest T-storms well south of home.
That may be about to change. Under the heading of "Be Careful What You Wish For" the leading edge of hot, tropical air arrives later today and Friday, with enough instability and wind shear for a few severe storms. Be alert for watches and warnings later today and Friday.
These warm front often kick off swarms of very heavy thunderstorms at night. An MCS, or meso-convective system, capable of frequent lightning and flooding rains, may interrupt REM sleep the next few nights.
T-storms spill over into Saturday, pushing into northern Minnesota Sunday. And then it gets hot. 90F is likely by Sunday and Monday of next week. Factor in a dew point of 70-75 and it will feel sultry.
It won't be as hot & stuffy as 2012, but the Summer of 2013 will include occasional heat spikes to go with the thunderstorms.
Coolest Spring since 1996 in the Twin Cities:
Details from Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climate Office: "If you look at March 20 to June 20 (with two days missing for this year) 2013 is ranked at #19 coldest going back to 1873 for the Twin Cities with 50.2 degrees. We could creep up a little bit with the mild last two days. The years that have been colder over the past 30 years are 1996 (3-way tie with 1909 and 1950 for 8th coldest) and 1983 at the 14th coldest (tied with 1961). The coldest is 1907 with 46.5 degrees. Basically, it's been the coolest spring since 1996.
In the precipitation category for the Twin Cities, it looks like 2013 will come in 17th, with 13.05 inches, although we could go up a bit there with more rain! 2012 was 2nd, with 16.33 inches."
A Soggy 48 Hour Spell. Heavy showers and T-storms are likely across the Upper Midwest into Saturday, possibly Sunday morning, as very hot, steamy air pushes north. Training thunderstorms may spark some 3-4"+ rains, and I could see some flash flooding. More heavy rain is likely over the coastal Carolinas; some 2-4" amounts possible over the next 5 days.
An Active Warm Frontal Boundary. Thunderstorms tend to increase during the overnight hours, as low-level winds focus on frontal boundaries. Conditions may be ripe for a few MCS (meso-convective) systems flaring up late each night, capable of torrential rains, gusty winds and frequent lightning. Storms spill over into Saturday, possibly Sunday morning. Keep your sun expectations low this weekend, but it will be warm and humid; highs in the 80s to near 90 with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
Unfortunate Timing. The 13th weekend in a row with rain? Looks like it. ECMWF model data keeps showers and T-storms into at least Saturday; Sunday the drier, sunnier (hotter) day. Dry weather may previal the first half of next week with highs in the 80s to near 90. Hot enough, but not "2012-hot".
Photo credit above: "A spectator shelters from the weather during a rain delay at the Queen's Club grass court championships in London, Wednesday, June 12, 2013." (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
Graphic credit above: "The chart above shows the human development index for all 50 states. States with darker shading scored higher." (Source: Social Science Research Council)
Photo credit: J. Telling.
* photo above courtesy of Paul Zunkel.
Photo credit above: "President Barack Obama speaks in front of the iconic Brandenburg Gate in Berlin Germany, Wednesday, June 19, 2013. Obama is planning a major push using executive powers to tackle the pollution blamed for global warming in an effort to make good on promises he made at the start of his second term. "We know we have to do more — and we will do more," Obama said in Berlin." (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
Graphic credit above: "What LaGuardia Airport could look like at high tide with 5 feet of sea level rise, an amount that could occur by 2100, according to some estimates." Credit: Nickolay Lamm/StorageFront interpretation of Climate Central data.
Photo credit above: "There is increasing evidence of man-made climate change and extreme weather events, according to a new report." Photograph: David Gray/Reuters.