An Extreme Start to July: Record Heat West, Flash Flood Risk East Coast

Good Timing

One of the nicest weeks of summer is shaping up for Minnesota, including the 4th of July. Quick, run out and buy a Lotto ticket.

After early May snows and June downpours I guess we were due for a break, statistically. Glad it's coming this week.

The jet stream is still "stuck", locked in a pattern that favors thunderstorms capable of localized flooding from Florida to New England through the end of the week, while the west fries through historic heat. Already: 122F. Palm Springs, 119F in Phoenix - the other night Las Vegas had a LOW of 89F.

In a deadly 1995 Chicago heat wave researchers discovered it wasn't an afternoon heat index of 125F that caused the most problems, but nighttime lows holding in the 80s that caused most of the problems. People simply couldn't find any relief at night; their hearts couldn't take the prolonged stress.

A stalled upper level low out east may squirt a stray pop-up instability shower into southern Minnesota Wednesday & Thursday, but I suspect most of us won't see any rain until Sunday, when an advancing cool front sparks a few T-storms.

4th of July: intervals of sun, 80-85F, dew point near 60. Some of the best weather in the USA?

Really.

Rainfall Thru Thursday Morning. The solution above shows the 12km NAM model accumulated rainfall between Sunday evening and Thursday mroning at 12z, some impressive 2-5" amounts pushing onto the Florida Panhandle, over 2" rain possible from near Atlanta and Charlotte into interior New England. Meanwhile dry weather should be the rule over the Upper Midwest and west coast of the USA. Graphic: Weather Bell.

Best Week Yet? Is it even theoretically possible to go more than 1-2 days in a row without rain this year? I was starting to wonder. But if you put any stock in the ECMWF (European) model above it looks fairly likely; dry weather prevailing into Wednesday, probably Saturday. There is a slight chance of a pop-up instability T-shower on the 4th, mainly south of the Twin Cities, but I think most of us will go the entire week without meaningful rain. Heresy.

4th of July. The ECMWF map above (WSI Corp.) is valid midday Thursday, showing numerous showers and heavy T-storms east of the Appalachians, a few spotty instability T-storms popping up from near Rochester to Des Moines and the Quad Cities, but fairly nice, sunny, seasonably warm weather is likely west of the Mississippi for this year's 4th of July festivities, a little monsoon cloud cover and rain taking the edge off the worst heat across New Mexico and Arizona.

Record-Tying 117F at Las Vegas Sunday. There hasn't been a hotter day since official records in Sin City were started back in 1937. More details from the Las Vegas National Weather Service.

Record Heat West - Flooding Rains East. The moisture contrasts across the USA are pretty formidable, record heat in the west making a bad wildfire risk even worse - Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect from San Francisco and much of California and Nevada to the Phoenix area. Out east a stalled frontal system has lead to the issuance of a Flash Flood Watch from Hilton Head northward to Albany. The latest watches and warnings from NOAA are here.

Lowland Flooding. Thanks to WeatherNation TV meteorologist Todd Nelson for snapping this photo of the Crow River near Rogers, experiencing significant flooding over the weekend.

A Very Soggy June. There's a good reason the drought is history across most of Minnesota. June rainfall was more than twice the normal amount for many towns. Here's an excerpt from Mark Seeley at Minnesota WeatherTalk: "...Like previous months this year, June turned out to be wetter than normal for most Minnesota observers. Exceptions were some areas of northern Minnesota which received less than normal rainfall for June. For some Minnesota communities it was a very wet month indeed. Among those reporting over 9 inches for the month were Morris, Albert Lea, Wells, Caledonia, Preston, and Spring Grove. The June rainfall of 12.13 inches at Spring Grove is a new record total for the month surpassing 11.70 inches in 2000, while the 12.58 inches reported from Wells, MN is also a new June record for them..." (photo: Marlo Lundy).

Hurricane Guide: Predicting Storm Intensity Remains At Elusive Challenge For Meteorologists. Here's an excerpt from an excellent article at al.com: "...Yet, forecasting storm intensity remains a more elusive challenge. That’s why you see so much leeway in the number of major storms predicted, Williams said. “It’s a real problem.” The factors that determine how strong a storm will be and where it will make landfall rests on shaky science. And the years between major storms offers a premature glimpse into storm outlook for the season. “Historically, every 10 years or so we’ve had a major storm,” said Jeff Garmon, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mobile. “Unfortunately, nature is not as predictable as that.” Weather experts look to a number of ingredients that combine to make an intense tropical storm..."

Image credit above: "Hurricane Ivan makes land fall on the Gulf Coast in 2004." (Photo Courtesy of NASA Scientific Visualization Studio)

University of Florida Devices May Change How Storms Are Tracked. Remotely controlled weather drones to (more safely) monitor and track tornadoes and hurricanes? Seems like a logical evolutionary step to me. Here's a clip from a very interesting article at gainesville.com: "...Kamran Mohseni, a UF engineering professor, and his team are developing miniature airplanes and small submarines with sensors that track pressure, temperature, humidity and other measurements. Sent by the dozens into the storm, Mohseni said the many small vehicles working together can obtain accurate information from many different environmental situations. Now others, including many in the military, favor large do-it-all devices that gather information from inside the storm, Mohseni said. While the idea sounds reminiscent of the 1996 movie “Twister,” it's more complex..."

Image credit above: "The Cephelobot, a autonomous underwater vehicle, floats in a large tank while undergoing tests at the University of Florida on Tuesday June 25, 2013 in Gainesville. The submarine is a prototype that will be launched into the ocean under hurricanes and send back weather data." Matt Stamey/Gainesville.com Staff photographer.

Has TV Weather Coverage Become Too Dangerous? Short answer. Yes. Here's an excerpt from kten.com: "The newest extreme sport: covering the weather for TV. In an effort to satisfy the public's appetite for footage of blizzards, hurricanes and, most recently, the devastating tornadoes in Oklahoma, reporters as well as professional and amateur chasers are heading straight into the eyes of the storms. After Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young, the stars of Discovery's Storm Chasers series, died while filming the El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado on May 31, some in the industry are wondering if the competition to get the scariest shot has gone too far. Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Bettes thinks so. While following the same twister, his car was lifted off the ground and dumped 325 feet away. "This is a wake-up call about the safety of people chasing weather," says Bettes, who suffered cuts from broken glass (his cameraman cracked a vertebrae in his neck)..."

After Storm Deaths, Search On For Perfect Warning. Can too much lead time for a tornado warning be just as dangerous as not enough? It may sound counterintuitive, but if there's more than 20-30 minutes warning lead time it may tempt (some) people to try to outrun a tornado, or take video of the approaching storm. Details in this clip from AP and Weatherbug.com: "...Some experts, though, acknowledge there is debate about whether there can be too much advance warning of tornado strike, and if this could lead people to take foolish risks such as trying to dart across town to pick up a loved one or taking to the open road to try to outrun a violent storm."There's a great philosophical discussion about what constitutes the ideal lead time," said Greg Carbin, a warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. "The more lead time the better, but the flip side of that is that accuracy and certainty in our predictions usually decrease with lead time." Over the last five years, residents in the U.S. have been given an average lead time of 13 minutes between the issuance of a tornado warning and a confirmed tornado on the ground. That's a 17-minute increase from the 1980s, when tornado warnings were typically issued four minutes after a funnel had been spotted, said Lans Rothfus, who is deputy chief of the warning research and development division at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman..."

Tips For Surviving A Mega-Disaster. Not something any of us want to consider - at least we don't have to worry about tsunamis in Minnesota; one of the few natural disasters we don't have to lose sleep over. Here's an excerpt of an interesting article at Northeast Indiana Public Radio: "...The nation has done a good job preparing for natural disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes, which occur frequently but usually produce limited damage and relatively few casualties, the panelists said. But government officials are just beginning to develop plans for events like a major tsunami or a large asteroid hurtling toward a populated area. The difference between a disaster and a mega-disaster is scope, the scientists say. For example, Hurricane Sandy was defined as a disaster because it caused significant flooding in New York and New Jersey last year, says Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey. But the flooding was nothing like what happened to California in the winter of 1861 and 1862, she says..." (Image: Oregon State).

Climate Stories...

Climate Change Blamed For Increasing Allergy Problems. Here's a snippet of a story from The Courier Journal: "...A federal plant physiologist says tree pollen is emerging roughly two weeks sooner in the spring, and ragweed pollen is lingering two to four weeks longer in the fall. In fact, pollen counts are expected to more than double by 2040, according to a study presented at a meeting of the American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology last fall. “The more pollution, the more global warming, we’re definitely seeing higher pollen counts,” said Dr. David Pallares of Louisville Allergy and Asthma. “Over the last decade, there has been a progressive increase in pollen counts compared with in the past....”

Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already? Here's a Joe Romm post at Think Progress: "Scientists predicted a decade ago that Arctic ice loss would bring on worse western droughts. Arctic ice loss has been much faster than the researchers — and indeed all climate modelers — expected (see “CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed“). It just so happens that the western U.S. is in the grip of a brutal, record-breaking drought. Is this just an amazing coincidence — or were the scientists right and what would that mean for the future? I ask the authors. Here is the latest drought monitor (above right)..."

Humans: The Real Threat To Life on Earth. There's a headline that's bound to get attention (and not all positive). But it's a compelling argument - one I hope the author ultimately gets wrong, Population growth is a very real concern, one that has a domino effect on all other problems. Some of the statistics in the Huffington Post article are worth the read (how much water it takes to ultimately make a burger, or a lousy cup of coffee, how much water is required to make a plastic bottle that holds...water, to name just a couple. Some of the energy statistics are even more eye-opening. Here's an excerpt: "...We hear the term "climate" every day, so it is worth thinking about what we actually mean by it. Obviously, "climate" is not the same as weather. The climate is one of the Earth's fundamental life support systems, one that determines whether or not we humans are able to live on this planet. It is generated by four components: the atmosphere (the air we breathe); the hydrosphere (the planet's water); the cryosphere (the ice sheets and glaciers); the biosphere (the planet's plants and animals). By now, our activities had started to modify every one of these components. Our emissions of CO2 modify our atmosphere. Our increasing water use had started to modify our hydrosphere. Rising atmospheric and sea-surface temperature had started to modify the cryosphere, most notably in the unexpected shrinking of the Arctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our increasing use of land, for agriculture, cities, roads, mining – as well as all the pollution we were creating – had started to modify our biosphere. Or, to put it another way: we had started to change our climate..."

Obama Asks Americans To Declare They Won't Vote For Those Who Don't Act On Climate Change. Here's a clip from The Washington Post: “...If you agree with me, I’ll need you to act,” Obama says, appealing to Americans to spread the word to their family, friends and classmates. “Remind everyone who represents you, at every level of government, that there is no contradiction between a sound environment and a strong economy — and that sheltering future generations against the ravages of climate change is a prerequisite for your vote.” Obama’s remarks in his weekly radio and Internet address, released Saturday but recorded at the White House prior to the start of Obama’s weeklong trip to Africa, marks the start of a new phase for Obama’s efforts on climate change: convincing the public to sell it for him..." (Photo: AP).

A "Dry Heat" Out West, Flooding T-storms Eastern USA (remember the super-derecho of June 29, 2012)

A Dry Heat

"100F doesn't feel so bad out here because it's a DRY HEAT", a friend in Scottsdale told me recently. Right. My oven is a dry heat but I still try not to stick my head inside.

From Los Angeles to Las Vegas weekend highs are within a couple degrees of all-time records. Death Valley may heat up to 130F today. The all-time global heat record is 134F.

The Western USA  is stuck in a hot, dry, fiery rut, while eastern cities are enjoying a stormy trough of low pressure, a cold wrinkle aloft sparking an almost daily conga-line of severe T-storms. Philadelphia just slogged thru the wettest June ever, with 10.06 inches of rain.

Minnesota lakes are finally warming up to swim-worthy levels and this week looks remarkably sunny, warm and quiet. 

Wait, Thursday is the 4th of July. You can't be serious, Paul.

Are you sitting down? We may go close to AN ENTIRE WEEK without any rain. Highs reach the 80s - warm enough for the lake or pool, but there's no sign record heat in the Southwest will reach us soon.

The drought is over now across most of Minnesota; a small pocket of moderate drought up north. Summer came late this year but we'll make up for lost time. 

Maybe it'll stay balmy into November?

Photo credit above: "Mike Bouse of Henderson, Nev., shades himself with an umbrella as he floats in the waters along Boulder Beach at Lake Mead, Saturday, June 29, 2013 near Boulder City, Nev. Bouse and his wife planned to spend most of the day in and out of the water to escape the heat in the Las Vegas area where Saturday's daytime high was expected to reach 117 degrees, the city's all-time high. It was 108 at noon Saturday in Sin City." (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson).

I Want To Believe. When is the last time you saw this? 7 days in a row of dry weather in the Twin Cities metro area, just a slight chance of a light shower next Sunday, according to ECMWF model data. Highs may approach 90F. in the metro area by the end of the week, but expect mostly 80s right into next weekend. I know - too nice for the 4th of July. What can possibly go wrong?

Holiday Weekend Details. Here is the European model outlook for the end of this week, showing generally dry weather witin 400 miles of MSP Thursday and Friday, a few T-storms over far northern Minnesota by Saturday. Above average for the most important holiday of summer. We'll see. Model maps: WSI.

East Coast Soakers. A temporarily stalled trough of low pressure over the eastern third of the USA will spark heavy showers and T-storms from Florida on up the East Coast into New England; some 5-8" amounts possible for the Gulf Coast of Florida, as much as 3-5" from Atlanta and Charlotte to D.C. and New York.

A Very Soggy June. There's a good reason the drought is history across most of Minnesota. June rainfall was more than twice the normal amount for many towns. Here's an excerpt from Mark Seeley at Minnesota WeatherTalk: "...Like previous months this year, June turned out to be wetter than normal for most Minnesota observers. Exceptions were some areas of northern Minnesota which received less than normal rainfall for June. For some Minnesota communities it was a very wet month indeed. Among those reporting over 9 inches for the month were Morris, Albert Lea, Wells, Caledonia, Preston, and Spring Grove. The June rainfall of 12.13 inches at Spring Grove is a new record total for the month surpassing 11.70 inches in 2000, while the 12.58 inches reported from Wells, MN is also a new June record for them..." (photo: Marlo Lundy).

Historic, Dangerous Heat Wave Scorches Western USA. USA Today has the story; here's the intro: "A blistering, potentially historic and record-breaking heat wave is beginning today in the West, and is forecast to last at least through the weekend. Excessive heat warnings and watches have been issued today by the National Weather Service for most of Arizona, Nevada, California and parts of Utah. They are in effect through Monday. "An excessive heat warning is issued when temperatures are forecast to reach dangerous levels that will stress the body if precautions are not taken," the weather service warns. "Heat stroke symptoms include an increase in body temperature, which leads to deliriousness, unconsciousness and red, dry skin," according to a weather service online report. "Death can occur when body temperatures reach or exceed 106-107 degrees..."

From the San Diego office of the National Weather Service:




Super-Derecho. A year ago today residents from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic Region were cleaning up from one of the most severe derecho straight-line wind events ever recorded. To be called a derecho these boomerang-shaped storms have to travel at least 240 miles. The derecho of June 29, 2012 traveled nearly 900 miles, from Iowa to near Norfolk, knocking out power to millions of residents. It would take weeks for the lights to come back on in some communities, including metro Washington D.C.


Derecho Climatology. Texarkana is ground zero for derechos, with 4 derechos every 3 years. An average of 1 derecho a year is typical from Dallas to Chicago and Louisville (as well as the Twin Cities of MInnesota) according to NOAA NCDC climatology. These intense, long-lasting wind storms are most likely in June and July, when steamy, tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico surges north.

University of Florida Devices May Change How Storms Are Tracked. Remotely controlled weather drones to (more safely) monitor and track tornadoes and hurricanes? Seems like a logical evolutionary step to me. Here's a clip from a very interesting article at gainesville.com: "...Kamran Mohseni, a UF engineering professor, and his team are developing miniature airplanes and small submarines with sensors that track pressure, temperature, humidity and other measurements. Sent by the dozens into the storm, Mohseni said the many small vehicles working together can obtain accurate information from many different environmental situations. Now others, including many in the military, favor large do-it-all devices that gather information from inside the storm, Mohseni said. While the idea sounds reminiscent of the 1996 movie “Twister,” it's more complex..."

Image credit above: "The Cephelobot, a autonomous underwater vehicle, floats in a large tank while undergoing tests at the University of Florida on Tuesday June 25, 2013 in Gainesville. The submarine is a prototype that will be launched into the ocean under hurricanes and send back weather data." Matt Stamey/Gainesville.com Staff photographer.


Has TV Weather Coverage Become Too Dangerous? Short answer. Yes. Here's an excerpt from kten.com: "The newest extreme sport: covering the weather for TV. In an effort to satisfy the public's appetite for footage of blizzards, hurricanes and, most recently, the devastating tornadoes in Oklahoma, reporters as well as professional and amateur chasers are heading straight into the eyes of the storms. After Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young, the stars of Discovery's Storm Chasers series, died while filming the El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado on May 31, some in the industry are wondering if the competition to get the scariest shot has gone too far. Weather Channel meteorologist Mike Bettes thinks so. While following the same twister, his car was lifted off the ground and dumped 325 feet away. "This is a wake-up call about the safety of people chasing weather," says Bettes, who suffered cuts from broken glass (his cameraman cracked a vertebrae in his neck)..."


After Storm Deaths, Search On For Perfect Warning. Can too much lead time for a tornado warning be just as dangerous as not enough? It may sound counterintuitive, but if there's more than 20-30 minutes warning lead time it may tempt (some) people to try to outrun a tornado, or take video of the approaching storm. Details in this clip from AP and Weatherbug.com: "...Some experts, though, acknowledge there is debate about whether there can be too much advance warning of tornado strike, and if this could lead people to take foolish risks such as trying to dart across town to pick up a loved one or taking to the open road to try to outrun a violent storm."There's a great philosophical discussion about what constitutes the ideal lead time," said Greg Carbin, a warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. "The more lead time the better, but the flip side of that is that accuracy and certainty in our predictions usually decrease with lead time." Over the last five years, residents in the U.S. have been given an average lead time of 13 minutes between the issuance of a tornado warning and a confirmed tornado on the ground. That's a 17-minute increase from the 1980s, when tornado warnings were typically issued four minutes after a funnel had been spotted, said Lans Rothfus, who is deputy chief of the warning research and development division at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman..."


Tips For Surviving A Mega-Disaster. Not something any of us want to consider - at least we don't have to worry about tsunamis in Minnesota; one of the few natural disasters we don't have to lose sleep over. Here's an excerpt of an interesting article at Northeast Indiana Public Radio: "...The nation has done a good job preparing for natural disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes, which occur frequently but usually produce limited damage and relatively few casualties, the panelists said. But government officials are just beginning to develop plans for events like a major tsunami or a large asteroid hurtling toward a populated area. The difference between a disaster and a mega-disaster is scope, the scientists say. For example, Hurricane Sandy was defined as a disaster because it caused significant flooding in New York and New Jersey last year, says Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey. But the flooding was nothing like what happened to California in the winter of 1861 and 1862, she says..." (Image: Oregon State).

Climate Stories...



Obama Asks Americans To Declare They Won't Vote For Those Who Don't Act On Climate Change. Here's a clip from The Washington Post: “...If you agree with me, I’ll need you to act,” Obama says, appealing to Americans to spread the word to their family, friends and classmates. “Remind everyone who represents you, at every level of government, that there is no contradiction between a sound environment and a strong economy — and that sheltering future generations against the ravages of climate change is a prerequisite for your vote.” Obama’s remarks in his weekly radio and Internet address, released Saturday but recorded at the White House prior to the start of Obama’s weeklong trip to Africa, marks the start of a new phase for Obama’s efforts on climate change: convincing the public to sell it for him..." (Photo: AP).

WNTV Blog For Saturday June 28th: Southwest Heat and Eastern Rain T-storms

Arizona Dry Thunderstorms (Monsoon Season)

Dry Thunderstorms? How could that be?? The image below from the National Weather Service out of Flagstaff Arizona shows a "Dry Thunderstorm" perfectly! Look how the rain evaporates before it reaches the ground! Because it is so hot and dry, those rain showers tend to dry up before it hits the ground.
"The intense heat which has invaded Northern Arizona has resulted in a very unstable atmosphere across the high country. Hot temperatures near the ground are combining with some mid level moisture to produce high based thunderstorm activity. This type of pattern often results in mostly dry thunderstorms (Producing little, or very light rainfall) but gusty winds and lightning. Not a good situation considering the extreme fire danger!"
See more HERE:

Southwest Heat
YIKES! Look at how hot the temperature map looks below! The deep red and purple colors indicated temps around 100F or higher!. Some spots may even be near record territory for several days! This weekend will likely be the hottest time period during this heat wave!

Record Heat Continues
National Weather Service Offices in the Southwest have put great lists together with expected high temps vs. records through early next week. Take a look below at some of the hot spots near Las Vegas and Death Valley, CA. Note that some of the locations below could be near All-Time record highs!
See more NWS Weather Stories HERE:

Las Vegas, NV

Excessive Heat Headlines
Take a look at how many areas in the West will be under excessive heat headlines this weekend. Deep red/purple colors indicate EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS. Temps in some spots will be 110F to 120F or more through early next week.

Respect the Heat!
Heat is one of the leading weather-related killer in the United States, resulting in hundreds of fatalities each year. In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1,250 people died. In the heat wave of 1995 more than 700 deaths in the Chicago area were attributed to heat, making this the deadliest weather event in Chicago history. In August 2003, a record heat wave in Europe claimed an estimated 50,000 lives.
North American summers are hot; most summers see heat waves in one or more parts of the United States. East of the Rockies, they tend to combine both high temperatures and high humidity, although some of the worst heat waves have been catastrophically dry.
Read more Heat Safety Tips HERE:

Heat-Related Illness Symptoms and First Aid

HEAT CRAMPS

• Symptoms:
  • Painful muscle cramps and spasms usually in legs and abdomen
  • Heavy sweating
• First Aid:
  • Apply firm pressure on cramping muscles or gentle massage to relieve spasm.
  • Give sips of water, if nausea occurs, discontinue water

HEAT EXHAUSTION

• Symptoms:
  • Heavy sweating
  • Weakness
  • Cool, pale, clammy skin
  • Weak pulse
  • Possible muscle cramps
  • Dizziness
  • Nausea and vomiting
  • Fainting
  • Normal temperature possible
• First Aid:
  • Move person to a cooler environment
  • Remove or loosen clothing
  • Apply cool, wet cloths
  • Fan or move victim to air conditioned room
  • Offer sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue water. If vomiting continues, seek immediate medical attention.

HEAT STROKE (or sunstroke)

• Symptoms:
  • Altered mental state
  • Possible throbbing headache, confusion, nausea, dizziness, shallow breathing
  • High body temperature (106°F or higher)
  • Skin may be hot and dry, or patient may be sweating
  • Rapid pulse
  • Possible unconsciousness
• First Aid:
  • Heat stroke is a severe medical emergency. Summon emergency medical assistance or get the victim to a hospital immediately. Delay can be fatal.
  • Move the victim to a cooler, preferably air-conditioned, environment
  • Reduce body temperature with a water mister and fan or sponging
  • Use fan if heat index temperatures are below the high 90s
  • Use extreme caution
  • If temperature rises again, repeat process
  • Do NOT give fluids

Southwest Fires
Hot and very dry weather is having an impact on fire weather this year. One expert described fire fuels this year are nearly 2 months ahead of schedule! The Silver Fire continues to burn in New Mexico. The fire is so large, that the smoke plume can be seen from Texas!

"Quick Photo-Update from the Silver. 8:30 am 6/28...the fire is developing another HUGE plume that is punching upwards of 35,000ft. It has the heat to blow way past the stable layer, exhibited by the of spread out flatter smoke layer. This is a VERY dangerous situation. Firefighters are keeping a respectful distance at this time. Structure protection is ongoing to the northwest of the fire. The fire is growing toward the NW."

Silver Fire from Space
This is what the Silver Fire looks like from space. It's hard to pick out the plume between all the other clouds, but it's there! The latest from www.inciweb.org suggests that the Silver Fire is 92,000+ acres in size and is only 20% contained.
See more from Inciweb.org HERE:

Western Wildfires
Look at how many wildfires there are in the western part of the country. According to www.inciweb.org, another large fire is ongoing in southcentral Colorado; the West Fork Complex is 90,000+ acres in size and is 0% contained

Why So Hot?
Look at how far north the strong upper level winds have bubbled up into Canada! This indicates a ridge of high pressure where dry, sinking air is occurring. Keep in mind that as air decends, it tends to dry out and warm up, so the heating process is working even better now!

 

 

Western Drought, Eastern Deluge

 

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer - unfortunately for folks in the West, hot and dry conditions have been an ongoing theme now for several weeks and it doesn't seem like we're going to see that change anytime soon. Meanwhile, folks in the East continue to get copious amounts of moisture, which is good because we're seeing the drought disappear, but in some cases we've had so much rain that flooding is now an issue!

 

The West: Changes aplenty this week as spring gives way to summer and summer heat is making its presence felt with fires (or the threat of) continuing to steal the impacts spotlight for many. New Mexico continues to forge into uncharted territory, with data from NOAA-National Climatic Data Center (records going back to 1895) showing the past 12 months to be the driest on record for the state coupled with the past 24 and 36 months coming in as the second driest on record. Virtually the entire state falls within the two worst categories on our drought severity scale, D3 and D4. All eyes will be squarely affixed on the upcoming monsoon season.
Wyoming sees improvements in the northeastern corner of the state and degradation in the south, with the trimming of D0/D1 in the northeast and expansion of D2/D3 in the south in proximity to the Colorado and Nebraska borders.
Colorado’s situation continues to deteriorate under the influence of summer’s heat, noted by expansion of D2 in the northeastern corner of the state as well as a slight push north and west of D3 in the southeastern corner. Fire still remains front and center with regard to impacts, but rangeland conditions continue to take a beating all along the Front Range.
Arizona and Nevada both see increases in drought conditions this week. In Nevada, D2 pushes farther east toward the Utah border while in Arizona both D2 and D3 expand slightly in the north central region and within the Navajo Nation.
For a second consecutive week, California sees a push of D2 across all of the Sacramento Valley and points eastward into more of both the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada. Recent rains in and along the northwestern coastal ranges have not been nearly enough to offset the record to near-record year-to-date deficits that have led to reduced streamflows in many basins.

Midwest: The transformation to normal continues in the upper Midwest with heavy rains (2-5+ inches) bringing substantial improvements to Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. D1 has been removed from southwest Minnesota and D0 has been reduced as a result, leaving the only drought in the state confined to the Red Lake region in the northwest. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions were also reduced in northwestern Iowa on the heels of recent improvements.

Read more from the U.S. Drought Monitor HERE:

 

 Minnesota Drought
Wow! What a difference 6 months makes! Minnesota has seen one of the most dramatic changes since the beginning of the year. All but 5% moderate drought has been wiped out since the beginning of the year, when 98% of the state was in a moderate drought, 83% was in a severe drought and 25% was in an extreme drought! Talk about weather whiplash... last year we were talking about extremely dry conditions and now we're talking about flooding!

U.S. Drought Outlook
Drought continues in the West, but a start to monsoon season may help to east drought conditions a bit in the Southwest!

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the previous thirty days, wet weather and cooler temperatures overspread the far north central United States and the central corn belt, easing drought conditions but also causing planting delays and flooding along the Mississippi River basin. In contrast, dry, hot weather exacerbated drought conditions in the southwestern quadrant of the Nation, promoting the development of numerous wildfires across the Four Corners states and California. In the East, a series of storm systems including Tropical Storm Andrea brought significant rainfall to the entire Atlantic seaboard, removing all remaining drought areas, though abnormal dryness was observed along the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. During the upcoming three months, enhanced odds of below average precipitation are expected to promote further drought expansion into the northwestern U.S., while drought persistence is likely across California and the northern intermountain West due to a dry summer climatology. In the Southwest, the potential for a robust and early onset of monsoon wetness may bring drought relief to Arizona, western New Mexico, and as far north as southern Utah and Nevada. In contrast, enhanced seasonal probabilities of abnormal dryness and warmth in western Texas are expected to promote drought persistence and expansion. A wet summer climatology may aid in further east to west erosion of drought across the Great Plains, but the prospects for relief are less certain along the High Plains, where extreme to exceptional drought has been entrenched for months and soil moisture is very low. Suppressed dry season rainfall in Hawaii is expected to favor drought persistence and possible expansion, while climatological summer precipitation in north central Alaska may improve existing drought conditions.
See more HERE:

Precipitation Past 7 Days
Radar estimated rainfall over the past week suggests several inches of rain in many areas east of the Rockies, especially in the Midwest and also in pockets in the Pacific Northwest. All this rain coming in a such a short amount of time has led to many areas of flash flooding this past week.

Approaching Atlanta
Thanks to Jacob Wycoff for the picture below who took this picture from a jetliner on an approach into Atlanta. He said that they had to circle the storm until it blew past the airport! Cool picture!

National Storm Reports
According to Hamweather.com, there have been more than 3,000 hail, high wind and/or tornado reports over the past 7 days. Interestingly, within that time frame, there were only 43 tornado reports and nearly 2,100 wind reports! That's pretty typical at this time of year. Generally, the number of tornadoes goes down and the number of wind damage reports goes up and large chunks of hot and humid air set up in the central part of the country. "Ridge Riders" or damage wind producing storm tend to develop on the outer periphery of this dome of hot air. This type of weather set up can persist for days and it's exactly what we've seen over the last several days!

5 Day Precipitation Outlook
NOAA's HPC 5 day precipitation outlook continues to show a fairly soggy scenario for folks east of the Mississippi River and especially along the Eastern Seaboard. Some spots along the Carolina Coast and Florida could see 3" to 5"+ through midweek next week!

4th of July Outlook
It appears that a fairly slow weather regime will continue through the early part of July with a large ridge of high pressure in the west and a trough of low pressure along and east of the Rockies. What this means is that it looks to stay mainly hot/warm and dry (with monsoonal thunderstorms in the Southwest), while along and east of the Rockies, we'll see pockets of showers and thunderstorms with areas of heavy rainfall possible. The image below suggests the accumulated rainfall potential on the 4th of July.

4th of July Temperature Outlook
The temperature outlook for the 4th of July looks fairly similar to what we'll see from the weekend into much of next week. Warm/Hot in the west and cooler along and east of the Rockies.

 Highs From Normal on the 4th of July
If the forecast verifies, many of us will be quite a bit cooler than average on Independence Day!

Thanks for checking in, have a great weekend ahead!
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